5 Days until the NZ Election – where are we and what happens next?

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So we are now less than a week until the 2020 NZ Election due on October 17th.

Labour + the Greens + the Māori Party are the holy grail progressive Government mix.

National, ACT, House of Slytherin, White Walkers and the Sith are the holy grail of the Hard Right.

National are so keen to kill Judith as leader, they are starting to publicly start the stoning.

Jacinda has reached peak Mother of Dragons popularity with the mildest most tame policy Dragons ever seen.

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ACT continue to gut National.

The Greens will limp home over 5% or better still, Chloe will beat the intensely  disagreeable Helen White in Auckland Central.

Fringe anti-Jacinda political party wasted vote will boost Labour.

God I love that.

Advance NZ, NZPP, New Conservatives, Vision. Suck it!

Here is how the political landscape stands with less than a week until the 2020 NZ Election.

 

DATES:

  • 14 October, 8.30pm: Newshub Decision 2020 The Euthanasia Question, moderated by Patrick Gower. Live on Three, ThreeNow, Newshub’s Facebook page and YouTube account.
  • Thursday 15 October – The final Leaders’ Debate airs at 7-8pm on TVNZ 1. Featuring Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins, this will be the last broadcast debate before New Zealanders head to voting booths on Election Day. Moderated by Jessica Mutch McKay.
  • Friday 16 October: Advance voting ends
  • Friday 16 October midnight: The regulated period ends. All election and referendum advertising must end. Signs must be taken down by midnight.
  • Saturday 17 October: Election day. Voters can vote from 9am to 7pm.
  • 17th October 7pm – The Greatest NZ Election Results Show on Earth: Magic Talk Radio with Sean Plunket, Damien Grant and Martyn Bradbury
  • Friday 30 October: Preliminary results for the referendums
  • Friday 6 November: Official results for the general election and referendums

ELECTORATES TO WATCH:

Tāmaki Makaurau – Possible surprise win for Māori Party

Te Tai Hauāuru – Possible surprise win for Māori Party

Waiariki – Possible surprise win for Māori Party

Whanganui – Possible surprise win for Labour Party

Auckland Central – Possible surprise win for the Greens

Wairarapa – Possible surprise win for Labour Party

Hutt South – Possible surprise win for Labour Party

Banks Peninsula – Possible surprise hold for Labour Party

East Coast – Possible surprise win for Labour Party

Tukituki – Possible surprise win for Labour Party

Nelson – Possible surprise win for Labour Party

Takanini – New electorate.

Northcote – Possible surprise win for Labour Party

Upper Harbour – Possible surprise win for Labour Party

 

LABOUR: Prediction just under 50%

Despite a deadly plague, people writhe around her, not caring that they may die, because just a second in her presence will be worth the silent midnight of the Reapers embrace.

It will be a Labour majority or a Labour led government, whatever it is, Labour are winning.

Jacinda has reset leadership and what it means to be a leader.

The most important women in my life, mother, daughter, friends, whanau,  all walk 5 inches taller because of Jacinda’s leadership.

She has made us proud on the international stage and at times of crisis her empathy and compassion have made NZ a shining global example.

After terrorism, volcanism and the plague, she has damn well earned a second term

Has anything remotely transformational occurred in terms of poverty, inequality, justice reform, suicide or housing? Only the baby steps of drunk baby.

But she has earned the chance to rectify that with a second term that doesn’t include the hand break of NZ First.

Labour winning a majority with such timid policy is going to be like waking up on Christmas morning only to be informed the family have all converted to Judaism.

 

NATIONAL: Prediction less than 30%

“I’m going to eat her liver with some fava beans and a nice Chianti.”

National are in such a bad position, they have already started turning on Judith before the election has even happened.

Judith on the campaign trail has been a terrible failure because she has all the compassion of a hungry wolverine in a premature baby ward. She wears a mask to protect Covid from her! Every time the people see more of Judith, the more they recoil in horror.

Judith is VERY popular with people who refer to Jacinda as ‘Cindy’, unfortunately they number a hundred thousand in an election that is measured in the millions.

The moment Judith fails, National will execute her and start the Luxton Dynasty.

They will bury Judith’s head and body separately so she can’t come back from the grave.

 

 

NZ FIRST: Under 5% – No electorate

Goodbye Winston Peters
Though we never knew you at all
You had the audacity to impose yourself
While those around you crawled
They crawled out of the media
And they whispered into your brain
They set you on the treadmill
And they made you change your game
And it seems to me you lived your life
Like a whisky in the wind
Never knowing which dog whistle to cling to
When the sinking polls set in
And I would have liked to have known you
But I was just a kid
Your whisky drained out long before
Your legend ever did

 

GREENS: 5%? 

Actual Green Party Caucus meeting

Ok.

We have to keep them in and over 5%. But I swear, after the election, there has to be some fundamental change of culture inside there!

Oh and vote Chloe for Auckland Central, just to annoy Labour.

 

ACT: 8%

The knitted support toy for the victims of ACT Party gun fetishists

David Seymour is like right wing herpes.

He just won’t go away.

ACT doubled their vote using the Free Speech fiasco the woke handed him and once ACT started recording 2MPs, they became a viable political hostage for the NZ NRA who have hijacked the Party and are demanding 1080 be banned because it means less animals for them to shoot.

Paul Goldsmith is such an over rated muppet who can’t add properly that ACTs insane economic platform of Uranium Bonds and Toxic Waste deregulation looks good in comparison.

David’s last perforce in the Multi-Party leaders debate was terrible. Who slipped 10 Xanax into his diet coke? Why was he so sleepy? Was this him trying to be a statesman? Yawn. He’s the the smart arse under grad with intolerable right wing opinions, that’s who he is, a rebel no one likes following a flawed free market philosophy that isn’t relevant any longer. He’s not this dry balls City Council requisition officer who turned up to speak slowly at the debate. ZZZZZZZZZZZ.

ACT have crazy policy like lowering the minimum wage, the more toxic they are, the less likely the electorate will turn to National+ACT in 2023.

 

MAORI PARTY: Prediction 3 electorates + 1 off Party list

 

If the Māori Party win Tāmaki Makaurau, Te Tai Hauāuru and Waiariki they will create an overhang which will lift the Parliamentary majority required.

 

TOP: Prediction 2%

Great policy on Sugar Tax, reminded everyone that they actually have some bloody good ideas. Unfortunately no one is voting on policy this election.

 

New Conservative Party: Prediction less than 3%

God will smite sin, Māori rights, environmentalism and socialism

Hateful of abortion, solo mothers, gays, solo mothers, cannabis and solo mothers, the New Conservatives love guns, patriarchy and more guns. Paranoid and frightened of any idea post the renaissance, the New Conservatives would represent a great leap backwards for New Zealand. Their half truths and disingenuous lies make them the political version of Whaleoil, but with less charm. They will gloriously rob the Right by wasting vote.

Clearly the New Conservatives haven’t scarified enough livestock because God has forsaken them. They are spiteful liars who openly deceive and manage to sum up all that is bad with religion.

 

Vision NZ: Prediction less than 1%

When God hates you more than he hates the New Conservatives, you have more than electoral problems.

 

Advance NZ – NOTHING!

Clowns going nowhere. Total hype, no trouser.

Good riddance.

REFERENDUM: 

The latest Cannabis Poll is out and it suggest we could beat the dirty filthy religious right prohibitionists!!!!

NZ Election 2020: New poll shows cannabis likely to become legalised

A new poll shows cannabis legalisation is on track to pass in the upcoming referendum, but only if Kiwis turn up to vote.

COME ON KIWIS!

We must fight the prohibitionists and those like the National Party who wish to empower Organised Crime with the status quo.

Let me tell you a wee story.

I was the co-editor of Craccum the Auckland University Student Magazine in 1993.

My co-editor and I published an infamous article called the Drug Supermarket where we noted that because cannabis was illegal, criminal gangs were moving into the upper common room and were setting up shop. One such criminal element selling drugs there was the serial rapist, the Parnell Panther, who once outed in the article, threatened to kill my co-editor who then had to go into hiding. 

Oh the joys of a tertiary education. Good times, fun times.

27 years ago, it was astoundingly obvious that the prohibition of cannabis only empowered organised crime and that the hundreds of thousands of kiwis who have been arrested, hurt and damaged by this counter productive and spiteful war on drugs, especially when the drug is far less harmful than booze and tobacco, is beyond tolerance any longer.

This isn’t ultimately about markets, or marketing, or gutless cowardly politicians, it’s about getting the god damned state out of our fucking faces comrades.

We know it’s a racist system that penalises Maori and Pacifica far harsher than pakeha, this is about human rights and pushing the state out of our lives.

If you smoke weed, you shouldn’t be made a criminal. It’s as simple as that. 

Advance voting for the election and referendum is open now!

Vote yes and het these prohibitionist arseholes out  of our faces!

 

CONCLUSIONS:

  • With the enrolment rule changes that allow for enrolment on the day, prisoner voting alongside booths in Marae, I think we will see a large turnout from groups who don’t normally vote.
  • I think overseas votes will go overwhelmingly to Labour and not the Greens.
  • I think with the huge number of fringe parties we will see more wasted vote than ever before.
  • I think National will be lucky to gain 30%.
  • NZ First won’t be politically relevant.
  • ACT will suffer rapid growth pains.
  • Because of the high amount of wasted vote, the Māori Party should be able to gain an extra seat from their list with as little as 1% if they win an electorate seat.

There is one outcome from the Rubric cube of MMP that produces the most progressive Government NZ could ever have.

This most progressive Government ever could actually implement the radical reforms necessary for the reset our economy and society urgently require post pandemic and rebuild the sustainable re-imagination the climate crisis demands.

If the Māori Party win Tāmaki Makaurau, Te Tai Hauāuru and Waiariki they will create an overhang which will lift the Parliamentary majority required.

You could have a situation where Labour poll just under the majority and require the Greens to form a majority, but the Greens could be argued with that they should include the Māori Party in their negotiating team so that it’s a Labour, Greens, Māori Party Government with all the extra policy leverage that would come with both parties negotiating with Labour as a united front.

The Greens + Māori Party negotiating team could negotiate a first 100 days legislative platform to ensure the change is transformative and immediate.

The Left might be able to actually wield a mandate.

The Right are just waking up to this and are launching a Taxpayer Union fear attack trying to scare the bejesus out of the landed gentry with the Greens wealth tax.

I don’t think it will work, if anything it will convince wavering National voters to give Labour their party vote to block the Greens while the message of real reform will keep enough Labour voters party voting Green.

We could have a very exciting Election night result.

 

 

 

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40 COMMENTS

  1. Yep, pretty good summation @Martyn
    LESS of this —> https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/104668519/green-party-members-revolt-over-water-bottling-decision
    and MORE of this —>https://www.odt.co.nz/news/decision-2020/greens-prepared-play-hard-ball-forming-next-government

    LESS of this —> http://tumeke.blogspot.com/2012/07/the-final-maori-party-sell-out.html
    and MORE of this —> https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267971055_Maori_Sustainable_Economic_Development_in_New_Zealand_Indigenous_Practices_for_the_Quadruple_Bottom_Line

    I would love to see Social Credit in the Coalition mix, but their mission to educate the public falls somewhere between daunting to hopeless given the numbers who still think Nationals 19th century policies are relevant and, even more shocking, the 8% who think ACT’s insane policies are even worthy of consideration!

    It’s hard to believe we’re 20 years into the 21st century, and yet extinction-defying dinosaurs like National and ACT still walk this earth. As they stare at the approaching asteroid, they debate the existence of asteroids.

    • ‘It’s hard to believe we’re 20 years into the 21st century, and yet extinction-defying dinosaurs like National and ACT still walk this earth.’

      ‘extinction-defying dinosaurs like National and ACT’ would not exist today if it were not for the complicity of the corrupt broadcasters who, as a matter of principle, do not ask any of the important questions, and allow bullshit answers to the questions they do ask to pass without being challenged.

      Of course the politicians made it that way by making public broadcasting dependent on advertising revenue. So, even as the world goes up in flames:

      ‘Total destruction’: why fires are tearing across South America’

      https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/09/a-continent-ablaze-why-fires-are-tearing-across-south-america

      and NZ begins to feel the dire effects of Abrupt Climate Change (Planetary Meltdown) as a consequence of overconsumption, the use of fossil fuels and industrial activity in general, the advertising-dependent media espouse the merits of MORE consumption and MORE use of fossil fuels (as does the Labour Party).

      What is more, there is NO discussion about the global financial meltdown which is underway, and which will demolish almost all current living arrangements in the near future.

      The game of pretend continues….pretend they know what they are talking about; pretend they have a plan that will work.

  2. Maybe; Martyn, but we want NZF to survive and stand for us elderly, as no other party has showed to care for us pensioners as poor elderly.
    So NZF has a role for all our majority of our elderly.
    ‘If our society will not care for our elderly, then we will not have any future sustainable society’.

    • Can’t believe you are so naive after all that life experience?
      NZF don’t stand for any elderly!!! NZF stand for Winston and only Winston…the sooner he’s gone the better.

      • The way they screwed over the British pensioners living in NZ (2nd largest pensioner group) means they were always going to struggle to get enough votes, and also makes me ere on the side of Herman. i.e. That NZF is mainly and possibly purely about Winston.

    • If my life and future depended on Winston being in power I would be very sad . I have worked hard taken a few risks and retired with enough to pay the bills . I do not need a friendly government but I do worry for my grandchildren and see no plan to refill the pot when they need education or hospital care
      . Hopefully I will be around in 3 years to see where we are as a country and who will take us forward

  3. The cannabis vote is going to be decided by the boomers.

    So get out there and talk to your parents, and tell your friends to do the same.

    I knew very well my parents would vote against it even though it has absolutely zero affect on them whichever way it goes.

    I asked them what they’d think if the referendum got voted out and in a few years time one of thier grandkids came home in the back of a police car and ended up with a conviction around thier necks for the rest of their days, then and only then, they actually stopped to think.

    Fortunately I think the’ve now seen the light and will be voting yes, that’s not certain but it’s 1000% more likely than it was before the conversation.

    • Well this boomer is voting for, so please don’t lump us all in the no category. I and many of my friends have experienced the amazing pain relief from cannabis products. I will be very angry that, if there is a yes vote in the referendum, so called medicinal cannabis will be left in the hands of big Pharma, as it is now. People who need the products legitimately prescribed are faced with totally immoral costs. I will not smoke it for obvious reasons, but I sure as hell will have the regulation 2 plants in my vege garden.

  4. Chloe will beat the intensely disagreeable Helen White in Auckland Central.

    I do hope so!
    And I hope she revolutionises the Greens from within.

  5. Electorates to watch: I’m also watching Maungakiekie. It will change colours, and there’s a small chance they could go Green, with the increased voter turnout and with anti-poverty campaigner Ricardo Menendez March campaigning strongly there. Maungakiekie is a ‘Left’ seat, even from 2017, with only the divided L/ G votes gifting the seat to the Nats. Maungakiekie Electorate Wiki

  6. Can’t see how the Jimmy Shaw clones in TOP are going to get any more than .5% even though that is the party that ironically has some real progressive policies.

    The Maori Party won’t return. Loyal Labour Maori stormtroopers won’t vote against their semi cargo cult god.

    National will get 33-35% as lots will hold their nose when they get in the ballot box. Act 6-7% only as people go tribal at the last minute.

    NZ First joins the Haast’s Eagle as a predator that evolution past by and the Greens who the fuck knows. Probably bumble over the line at 5%.

    Wasted vote as high as 6% – ironically the final spread Between the centre left and the centre right. Hopefully that will stop the rot as the next 3 years will require a strong opposition.

  7. I’m surprised you’re putting upper harbour in play. Yes I know Paula’s candidate has the charisma of a 3-day old turd on Orewa Beach however are all the South African fundamentalist christians going to vote for Labour. Really?

  8. All the contributors and most of the commenters on this blog are strongly condemnatory of the neoliberal market led form of capitalism that has run the country and the world for the last generation of time.
    There is one and one only politician still on the scene who consistently also opposes this system, who was in parliament before it was introduced , who railed against it’s introduction when it was introduced and who remains the only MP who openly and clearly opposes this system advocating for more national self sufficiency . independence and national sovereignty enabling government to direct our own management of assets for the good of the whole community, enhancing full employment by doing everything we can locally rather than the globalist approach to economics that goes hand in hand with the neoliberal settlement.
    That politician is by a wide margin the most denigrated and disparaged and ridiculed candidate on this blog. The languishing of his party in polling is greeted wit glee and delight by the bloggers and the commentators alike.
    This seems like a strange contradiction . What drives it? What hope Democracy? We will indeed get the government we deserve.
    For this trip though I don’t know that any electorate deserves Jacinda. But I predict that the poles which these days are adjusted to account for things like poor turnout of young voters on the day will be wrong this time. Young people who usually cannot identify with any politician will be feeling a strong empathy for Jacinda and will turn out and vote as never before. All for Jacinda.
    The labour vote will be well over 50%.But it will be a shame if Winston isn’t there.
    D J S

    • But it will be a shame if Winston isn’t there.

      Recent events have caused me to re-think my vote, and I am no longer removing Winston as an option. (I haven’t voted yet.) I suspect that I’m not alone in this, though few would admit to it.

      • “though few would admit to it.” That might be a critical factor. The same in the US. Admitting to support for Trump is as socially offensive as admitting to being sceptical about anthropogenic global warming and that might well be effecting how support for both of them is reflected in the polls . We’ll soon see.
        D J S

  9. 14 October, 8.30pm: Newshub Decision 2020 The Euthanasia Question, moderated by Patrick Gower.

    This will be fun. I’m assuming they’re bringing in Kevin Cruickshank????
    Because Paddyo is saying that we’re going to hear “both sides of the story“!!

    • I’m trying to work out how/why the media employ various professional companies to conduct polls and organise them to use methods which provide certain results.

      My suggestion to anyone with that sort of belief is to immediately cease reading, watching or listening to any formal media because it is manipulated to not be a true reflection of whatever.

      A news organisation employing a polling company is not like ordering a hamburger and saying exactly what you want it to look like at the end or like or getting a builder to build you a shed.

  10. please give one working/functional example of Progressive Maori Party Policy. And not Whanau Ora that was a rebranding of an existing Labour Party Policy developed by Annette King ( called Strengthening families). So yeah what did the Maori Party achieve for Maori when they were in power that benefited all .Not just a few nepotistic slush funds either. I live among some of the poorest people in NZ many of whom are Maori. I can list the areas of extreme need and and give working examples of what needs to done NOW to alleviate the inexcusable poverty of the Far North. But no one will listen to me despite my community work because I am in my 60’s and pakeha. So come on what exactly have the Maori Party achieved? I am willing to learn.

  11. “The most important woman in my life all walk 5 inches taller because of her.”

    Wait, Jacinda is making women wear 5″ stilettos? [ducks]

  12. ” The Left might be able to actually wield a mandate ”
    And its what they do with that mandate in the next term of parliament that will determine a third term and instead of talking transformation get the hell on with it and don’t squander all that covid support.
    I am also thinking about how long Jacinda will want to continue while her young daughter is growing up ?
    She already stands out as one of our most remarkable leaders and what she can accomplish in the next term will cement her position as one of the greatest PMs if she takes the opportunity to deliver REAL CHANGE that is cemented in and long lasting. The right have all the power and control for far to long , it is our turn now.
    The decisions and direction for the next three years will decide whether the NZLP has created a lasting legacy for the left and finally exorcise the ghosts of the past. We need a strong uncompromising party of the left that protects the interests of the many in our country that have no power or voice unlike their very rich countrymen and women.
    The stakes could not be higher in this covid election.

  13. That poll confirms how difficult it will be to change the current economic order when 89% or respondents will vote for parties to support it.

  14. I predict the MSM will win by a country overwhelmed by media bs. The circus continues … I can’t vote, and won’t, for a poor quality reality show.

  15. David, I agree with your call on the current lambasting of the posts here regarding Winston Peters as we all are aware that he is the most senior politician of our day in parliament.

    So beware that without him we will loose some very important historic knowledge and unknown details that Winston can always bring up in parliament.

    So without Winston being there to oversee the ‘corruption inside the opposition benches, we will be left more exposed to dirty politics on steroids in the new parliament’.

    So beware to those who want Winston gone.

  16. Like Rosie Lee, I sure as hell will have the regulation 2 plants in my garden & IMO, 4/person is what’s really needed. Being the (retd) NZRN than I still am, I read as much relevant research as I can find. FMPOV, I regret that the best research has been done in Israel (of all countries!). I don’t use the plant every day, but I have used a tincture (2 drops 4x/day) until I’d used it all, still use the dry plant on occasion. It’s numerous health values are incontestable & those who are against it in toto simply are dangerously ignorant. It’s far safer than e.g. Panadol – which people take to dangerous excess (it can cause liver failure).

  17. Advance Jami-Lee won’t get anywhere but they will take significant Maori votes which may weaken the Maori Party vote further and contribute to them gaining under the 5% threshold.

  18. What a load of wank! Labour will need the Maori Party to get across the line because the gweens are dead in the water.

    #NothingElseMatters.

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