TVNZ POLL – Labour 47% National 33%


The pain from the poor performance in the first leaders debate has bitten Labour from a majority result to a Labour + Green Party Government…

Party support:
Labour Party – 47% (down 1%)
National Party – 33% (up 2%)
ACT – 8% (up 1%)
Green Party – 7% (up 1%)
New Zealand First – 1% (down 1%)
New Conservative – 1% (down 1%)
The Opportunities Party – 1%
Māori Party – 1%
Advance New Zealand – 1%
Don’t Know/Refused – 11% (down 3%)

…Labour’s Debate team need a kick in the arse.

Judith keeps hungering for human flesh and the sleepy hobbits love it.

ACT keep taking votes from National.

TDB Recommends

Greens manage to take Jacinda’s mojo.

NZ First sinks beneath the waves of relevancy and joins New Conservatives, TOP and Advance NZ as recycled MMP vote for Labour.

Māori Party could bring in anther MP off the list if they win an electorate.

Don’t forget,

  • 17th October 7pm – The Greatest NZ Election Results Show on Earth: Magic Talk Radio with Sean Plunket, Damien Grant, Martyn Bradbury and guests.


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  1. the next debate will mean a lot to both parties.NZF are hopefully out of the race so voters for them and the other 1% parties all need to be aware they are wasted votes. Add these to the 15% undecided means the final tally could be closed than some thought 2 weeks ago

  2. That is what i want to see a realistic proposition for the formation of the next government. Labour was never going to maintain those stratospheric poll numbers and is slowly sinking back where they will need the Greens and a coalition agreement based on support for confidence and supply. I hope the Greens climb just a little more as a larger Green party will pay dividends for some progressive change only they can deliver. Had the New Conservatives had an alliance with ACT we would be looking at a realignment on the right as inmo they will poll a little higher on the day and thankfully National is splintering.Tamihere may bring in a couple of MPs but i predict he will be nothing but a thorn in the side of Adern should they be needed to govern.
    Interesting times and Winston maybe finally in a position to spend all that superannuation he has been collecting and go fishing permanently.

  3. National’s death spiral is may be over and I bet you the focus this week is to convince some of the swing voters to return to National from Labour–how??? –convince voters a vote for Labour is a vote for the Greens (and Wealth Tax)
    National Party – 33% & ACT – 8% = 41% vs Labour Party – 47%

  4. Bullshit poll.

    Colmar Brunton 6 days ago damaging for National and Collins.

    Newshub / Reid Research poll yesterday a virtual mirror.

    Why would TVNZ run an unprecedented third poll in 6 days?

    To my eye it’s for one of two reasons or both.

    1, TVNZ, who have been running interference against Labour on behalf of the National Party for three years and want to give National a boost so will keep running polls every day until they get the result they are after.

    2, TVNZ, is very much aware of the fact there has been considerable negative feedback regarding the shambolic leaders debate they ran last week. They are desperate to give their own debate some validity and legitimacy.

    Collins is being exposed more every day for what she is yet this rort wants you to believe she has just enjoyed a 5% jump in popularity. Pull the other one, it plays jingle bells.

    Dollars to donuts every poll you see elsewhere from this point on will highlight what a rort this TVNZ poll really is / was.

    • Collins in Nelson today: “I know some of you might love Ms Ardern, but actually I’m over her. I just like people who understand how many cents there are on the dollar, how you get stuff done, and I don’t care what the international newspapers have to say – they don’t represent here, they don’t vote here, and they definitely don’t pay taxes.”

      So Collins won’t be saying “I love you Miss Ardern” after next leaders debate…
      I’m sure I hear old Muldoon chuckling away, or maybe its just the wind……….

    • Been hanging out with Billy TK have you? An uneducated rant if ever I saw one. There is no ulterior motives will polls – they are what they are, a snapshot of political preferences in a certain time and place.

      Not everyone is enamoured with Jacinda as you.

  5. Ardern did what so many incumbents seem to do come debate time, they think they are “above it” and can coast through because they are PM… “I will just stand here and not engage because I am the Prime Minister”. Ardern lost the momentum when the Nats were on the ropes by not landing some easy punches, and probably has less than 30% chance of a majority now. Looking like it will be a Labour-Greens govt.

  6. I don’t see this one as much more than a tiny variation on every other poll.

    But I agree Jacinda cannot go into another god awful leaders shouting match aka debate projecting visions when you have a sniping contemptuous creature like Collins trash talking her.

    Having said that I really do not rate these screaming matches as anything than mud wrestling entertainment for dog fighting lovers.

  7. But? Surely, don’t people realise that ACT is roger douglas? The worthless runt of the pigs litter who’s done nothing but harm to AO/NZ while building a few classless riche who do nothing of any real value?
    Honestly, if people are that fucking stupid they deserve what they’ll certainly get. A Chinese dictatorship headed up by a Nu Zillind freak show in a frock.
    The Dark Muppets are already stalking the Sesame Street that’s Auckland at midnight after the Meth sparkle’s worn off and now all they want to do is bash someone. See above?
    On the other hand? Who can say, hand on heart that they actually trust tvnz with a poll? Seriously. They’re the kind of zombie weed, like rnz, that grows out of the bullshit they’re fed from their masters in the deep state natzo war room. I wouldn’t trust a poll result out of TVNZ as far as I could throw judes G string.
    Remember? The national party have a lot, and I mean A LOT to hide so it can be reasonably expected that they’ll do anything to remain well hidden with our money and their agendas.
    Don’t panic Mr Mainwaring!

  8. I guess voters want the Jedi Academy? Wouldn’t it be priceless if that was the Green’s bottom line for a coalition agreement? ;-).
    Anyway, I’m not surprised Labour is dropping in support. With more and more information coming out about CoVID-19 when combined with Jacinda’s nutty takes on free speech, it was inevitable. Labour (based on their performance over the last three years) all things considered does not deserve a majority outcome, and the polls are starting to reflect that.

    • Don’t be foolish , Mr Shovel… the only toast you smell is the National party. Moreover, the Greens will form the next coalition along with Labour. Furthermore, not only will they be the govt this coming term , but the one thereafter as well. And the reason?,… because NZ’ers wont want a change of govt because of the economic fallout of this pandemic. They want stability and chopping and changing govts in the middle of an economic crisis is the last thing they want.

      The global economic fallout is going to be huge, and govts are now going to have to reconsider their neo liberal footing. That only works when times are good. It has no fat on the machine when things turn sour like it did in the GFC. We are still paying for that. Now you are going to have literally hundreds of millions who wont be taking ‘austerity measures’ lying down.

      And that means BOTH major party’s are going to have to rethink the whole premise of the neo liberal ideology and look towards a Keynesian style of economics, – that is, … if they want to stay in power. Aged neo liberal party’s like National will become a dinosaur looking for a quarry to die in and get fossilized. As will ACT. And Labour will have to progressively give way and yield to the demands of a new era.

      The political scene we, – and which politicians have come to blithely accept as their right to impose on us for the last 36 years, – is over.

  9. Everyone hungers for human flesh in the tv ‘debates.’ It’s the shit way politics is done. It’s the American way.

    They ended up with a fuckwit of the first order, a person whose total being is past being described as flawed.

    There are thousands and thousands of deluded here too readyn to support a disgusting human being so that means Judith is a chance.

    • I do not see right leaning commentators calling Labour these types of names why do you presume you can talk that way about those that are not taken in by Jacinda’s smile and do not rock the candle policies . If they win Labour will tighten up on farmers and business people but do nothing for the poor as they do not see it as a vote winner. People have seen through Winston and with his demise the NZF party will be gone

      • I do not see right leaning commentators calling

        Trev, You do know that Ms Collins’ husband forwarded a social media meme that linked Jacinda into pornography? And that when asked about that, Ms Collins refused to denounce it in any way?

  10. Labour copying National policy on Tiwai point wouldn’t have anything to do with public opinion on lost jobs and a chance at taking Invercargill would it. It’s a bit icky even for them isn’t it.

    • Possibly but to cut that well paying industry from Southland and replace it with some utterly vague talk of eco farming and similar airy fairy stuff as a replacement was tantamount to saying “we dont give a flying shit if you crash and burn” type of thing.

      I think the governments haste to abandon people there thinking they were being all clever quoting Bill English was poorly thought out.

  11. I remember being excited when labour was on 30% in the polls not too long ago. 47% is 60 seats minimum I’m stoked with that, but colmar had the greens on 8% last election and 12% the election before and if you had of asked me a week or two ago or even today I would have said I’m party voting green strategically but now I’m probably two ticks red or gonna go top for shiggles because the greens are regularly above 5% and I don’t really wanna support the greens and I absolutely don’t want them in cabinet or anywhere near hate speech legislation and that includes Chloe.

  12. Jacindafan – Why would TVNZ run an unprecedented third poll in 6 days?
    The answer is it was due to drop mid week (Tuesday/Wednesday night) but for some reason they bought it forward a day or so.
    Im guessing just to make a bit of mischief and make things a bit more interesting this week:)
    My prediction the final TVNZ debate may not happen now 🙂

    In tandom with TV One–Newstalk ZB drive time on the 6PM panel tonight -Barry Soper and Heather du Plessis really think National can win it based on the trend in the polls (National and Act climbing slowly) —–they are dreaming, its too late Barry and Heather; advance voting starts on Saturday, the ship is about to sail.

    • Barry and Heather might like to think about living in South Africa now, if it all becomes a bit too much. Would either even get a job there?

  13. Interesting. Image how it would look if National take 3% from Labour and the Green’s loose a couple of percentage points to the likes of TOP, Maori Party, Advance NZ, etc

    National could form a government.

    The Greens have been fools not to have out a Electoral Seat after all this time.


  14. 47% is likely an outright majority after wasted votes are accounted for.
    Fingers crossed the greens disappear into oblivion, handing Labour an outright majority.
    Labour will continue to fuck everything up, but without the Greens hanging around their necks, hopefully they will fuck it up a little less.


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