TVNZ Poll winners & losers

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We have been waiting and waiting for anyone other than Roy Morgan to put out a bloody poll because the networks are too cheap to commission extra polls for the month extension Jacinda gave it.

TVNZ put one out to maximise the impact for it’s first leaders debate where Judith behaved like this…

WINNERS:

Matthew Hooton: The Hoots could read the writing on the wall, Judith frightens voters the way the movie ‘Exorcist’ frightens children under 5. By jumping now he only gets 50% of the blame for destroying National.

ZB Troll Farm at the Herald: Hosking, Hawkesby, Soper & HDPA will be ecstatic that the polls are finally turning and Jacinda’s fairy dust has evaporated from a huge majority Government to just a majority Government.

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Right Wing Gun Fetishists & anti 1080 fanatics: The Gun freaks who hate poison drops killing anything a bullet can, are beside themselves with joy that their hijacking of ACT has been so successful. It’s like Slytherin House but with less charm.

Wasted Vote: Thank you Billy TK, JLR and the New Conservatives. If these parties were elected, electricity, libraries and clitorises would be banned but thankfully they will simply create more wasted vote that will help Labour win a majority Government.  Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

 

LOSERS:

Woke anti Free Speech Crusaders: When the Woke be screaming last year about curtailing free speech because snowflakes be triggered, I pointed out they might awaken a dormant electoral fault line inside ACT. They did. Giving ACT the momentum he needed to cross the 2 MP threshold and make ACT a viable vehicle for crazy right wing aspiration was probably the dumbest thing the NZ Woke did. Could the Identity Politics activists stop giving  David Seymour ammunition?

NZ First: The Gold Card is more bronze now. Don’t let the door hit you in the arse Winston.

 

CONCLUSION: 

Labour are so hot, they lose 5% and STILL form a majority Government on their own. The Greens continue to hang on for dear life, Winston is gone before lunch time, National will be lucky to be over 30% and ACT continue to have their best campaign in over a decade.

The New Conservatives and Advance NZ will crash and burn and their wasted vote will be recycled benefitting the Party with the highest polling.

Watching sexist, bigoted, religious conspiracy theorists attack Jacinda so disgracefully only for all that hate to actually help Labour win is delicious.

 

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43 COMMENTS

  1. It’s simple really.
    Judy and her Serco Borders are about as appealing as a cup of cold sick.
    The National brand is greed, corruption and incompetence. They can’t shake it – it’s reinforced every time Judy opens her sewer mouth. Every time Goldsmith talks numbers. Every time Big Gezza puts down a pie to utter another conspircacy theory.
    National have made so many basic accounting errors in their Grand Plan of the Sith to retake control of the Universe that if they were in charge of the Death Star build, it would be a public-private partnership featuring crap Chinese steel, $8 billion of parts missing, and an overpaid inexperienced Jar Jar Binks in a flash suit running it.
    Thank the Maker they won’t be running the country.

  2. What this shows is:

    a). National’s rump is 30%
    b). 14% likely represent the pissed off small business owners, blue collar males and housewives of laid off professionals who want to vote National but can’t because at the moment they are a ‘fuck up’
    c). It is likely in the next electoral cycle a “fuck you” party will rise as there is growing disenchantment for the political establishment. We are just following leads in the States (Trump), UK (Brexit) and Australia (OneNation).

    National’s performance to date has been shambolic (Judith and Reti excepted) and there is a real chance of picking up the majority of the above if they can look half competent (a big ask in the current environment). Not game on yet however it looks like the move has begun.

    • We are just following leads in the States (Trump), UK (Brexit) and Australia (OneNation).

      That’s just it. We are NOT following them, under a Jacinda led govt. Aotearoa at the moment is the exception to that direction, to the extent that you see heads turning, snapping around in other countries, with people asking, “Why can’t we be like them?” And accolades being given.

      We are NOT the US of disintegrating America!
      And we don’t have to be. We don’t have to go that way of divisiveness, aggro, authoritarianism, extremism. Under our present govt we are quietly taking a completely different direction. We may not be far down it yet, but where we end up will be very very different, and safer and saner, than what most of the world are going through. …If we just stay the course.

      • We’re the exception to a populist movement despite Jacinda in 2020 running a center left faux populist campaign (go back and watch her 2027 ads) and going into coalition with a populist conservative party? The populist fuck you party already exists. It’s called nzf. The right wing populism has always been here.. Muldoon (if he had the levels of power trump did…yikes) , Shipley and Brash, Who was our Trump and very nearly got into power (got more seats than Jacinda) and forced Helen Clark to the right to do battle with Maori. Key ran a populist campaign dedicated to getting rid of the academic pc left wing nanny state and to “ditch the bitch”

        The exception is Canada. The center left libs/Greens and left NDP. Canada’s center left has governed more often than our center right National party “the usual party of government” , sure there are schisms over quebec every once in a while but much like scottish nationalism that’s rooted in social democratic movements and sure there’s oil issues but the green deal Trudeau is shoving through parliament makes Ardern look like Scott Morrison

        • Corey,

          My point is that IF Ms Collins were to become PM, and despite the protestations of some it does remain a possibility via coalition, certainly with the vested interests of many in the media/ propaganda machine, … then we WOULD become more like the US, with extreme polarisation, growing unrest, much greater imprisonment, butchering of the environment, riots down the line, and a general sell-out to foreign interests.

          We would lose our authenticity, the growing sense of self-respect, pride and dignity that we have gained as a nation under Jacinda’s leadership.

          There would also be greater surveillance of all of us, clamp downs on what we could and could not say here on blogs, and so the loss of freedom.

          It is a hell of a lot to lose! And we are risking it by our complacency. We cannot let that happen without a fight – whatever it takes.

          • I think this has more to do with the circles that you operate Kheala. A large proportion of NZers do not think like you and under MMP you only need 5% of the population behind someone. Trust me there is a growing disenchantment with the political establishment in certain groups notably white males.

            Covid19 being managed by a relatively young women who is telling you to do this and that (note this is not an attack on the PM more trying to show this group’s perspective) is an anathema to this grouping and you are seeing that in 3% support for the new conservatives and advance. These parties policies are not far right, they are bat shit crazy with realistically poor and uninspiring leaders and yet they have, based off this poll 3% of the vote.

            All I’m saying is the conditions are perfect for a far right party to chip say 5% of the vote.

            • I do agree with you that there is the possibility of an upset when all the votes are counted, which is why I wish very much that ‘the Left’ would shake off their complacency.

    • …It is likely in the next electoral cycle a “fuck you” party will rise as there is growing disenchantment for the political establishment…

      Do we, a tiny little team of around 5 mil, have sufficient numbers of “fuck you” disenfranchisees to really make a difference? Especially given that voting in national elections is not legislated. But yes FTT, as sure as the suns rises there will be growing disenchantment (with Labour, since they are a shoe in for the next term) and over time Jacinda’s halo effect will diminish. What AO/NZ will look like in the interim is unsure. We live in pretty interesting times.

  3. It was a pain to watch and the terrible lighting for Jacinda in that studio was a shambles, and the camera should have been closer to Jacinda as she was seen to be in the shadows and it showed a piss poor setup of lighting and camera shots all round.

    John Campbell was bad at moderating and controlling ‘crusher Collins stopping free flowing discussion from Jacinda’ – but strangely let Judith talk far more freely even when she interjected to stop jacinda talking, so personally it was a shambles that Campbell has setup so glad Jessica Much is doing the next TVNZ one debate.

    • When things are so blatantly wrong one must consider the possibility of sabotage.

      It is difficult to distinguish between incompetence and sabotage sometimes. But if is is as you say (I could only stand a minute of it after both Collins and Adern started with ‘growth and jobs’), to deliberately favour one speaker over the other in moderation is a common trick employed by the ‘forces of evil’ that are everywhere, but especially in broadcasting.

      • I’ve wondered elsewhere if Judith knew the Qs in advance via some convenient leak. She just seemed so rehearsed in all most that she said.

        • Yes Kheala
          I would not be at all surprised if Judith was leaked the questions before hand as National lives on leaks;

          National would use it here for their benefit and perhaps they did the same for the other debate on finance in Queenstown too?

        • Kheala The political commentators ( I didn’t watch the debate) said Judith’s answers were rehearsed – all worked out beforehand by NP strategists who’d have a good idea beforehand of the issues likely to arise.

          I watched the post-debate interviews and noted that Judith looked more buxom and sexy, which was a smart move- she was just waist up -like Mozart.

          But as she began to more and more look and perform like a Muldoon clone, I found her so repulsive that I turned it off – she was too hyped up, playground braggart – she may have been told to perform that way too. The pundits said the PM was not pre-rehearsed, and that does enable authenticity.

      • LOL, agreed Afewknowthetruth

        That was a setup alright. TVNZ should be slammed for the piss poor debate moderation seen there.

        Shame on John Campbell.

    • Yes that lighting was a shocker, and the PM’s stylist needs a tune up too…a bit of a “Nixon/Kennedy” moment–the famous US TV debate where Nixon looked sweaty and shifty and JFK more credible. Am not saying Collins looked credible–her gurning reminded so much of Rob Muldoon, who she is coming to resemble more and more–but her lighting was way better. Side shots of Ardern were regularly shown, but not of Collins. Be interesting to tote up all the camera cuts to Judith.

      But all that regardless, Jacinda missed an opportunity to stick it to the Nats, and made it pretty clear that neo liberalism is not going anywhere.

    • Agree with you Cleangreen. The whole set up was uneven and bad. I thought John Campbell was a shocking moderator. I did expect much better from him.

      Jacinda was being herself, while Judith was way over the top, obviously putting on a false facade in desperation.

      • ” Judith was way over the top, obviously putting on a false façade in desperation ”
        No that is the real Judith Collins and this is her first real public exposure with a mass audience and is hoping to replicate Adern and her media covid conferences where the public warmed and felt reassured by her performance.
        Collins actually is a good representation of the people who vote and donate to the National party and always step over everyone to make a buck whatever the cost to everyone else. Their only priority is to keep adding value to their family trust and riding on the backs of hard working poor bastards like the rest of us.

  4. “Labour lose 5% they will whaaat??” Will have to form a coalition with either the Maori party or Winston. The later you can expect will be so expensive this time round that it could increase the governments debt load by a percent or two.

    Act is playing the game of what you’d do when you dont have an army, create an imaginary army. For more than 5 elections in the past, they’ve had a maximum total vote of 13,000 to 22,000 (on a good day waaay back …) when people got the nod from the Nat’s. I bet that isnt gunnah happen this time. The Nats will call their bluff on the day of the election.

    25 days to go and labours voter base is collapsing! Hugely! From a 37pt lead to a narrowing 17pt difference and closing, if we are to believe any of those dodgy survey/polls.

    Labour governing alone is nonsense.

    • Jacinda needs to give a free pass to NZF in Northland and the Maori Party ( If Labour does not take strategic action it could be a gonna…the Gween sour apple influence has made people flee towards ACT)

      imo Labour is going down in the polls because voters are turned off a Gweenie potential coalition partner in the whacky Gweens….green apple kiss of death)

      ( my sister is even considering voting NZF because of this and she has voted Labour all her life)

  5. what a yawn fest these two are. No, did not watch it as I did not want to spend my evening having that BS regurgitate in my consciousness over night. Anyway who cares its all out of our control and what will be will be.

  6. Geeze that outrageous Collins smile and the baring of those teeth at the opening of the debate! My God that was scary stuff! Almost as if Jaws had been let loose in the studio!

    • Jaws !!!! Judith ??? omg i am clearly in an alternate reality or perhaps my tinfoil hat has slipped over my eyes …… all this time i thought it was “the leader of the SAFE world”, Ardern that had the extra helping of teeth !!
      this ” debate ” was a sad indictment of the 2 major influencers in our society, politics & media.
      The stupidly short answer times allocated to deal with incredibly complex situations ensured we learned next to nothing. The format, questions & answers are so old & not fit for purpose it’s almost criminal & Campbell’s breathless attempts to perturbate something innovative or entertaining from these different cheeks of the same backside was painful. Hell’s teeth they even get more time on morning tv – this was a leaders debate in a depression – all we got is cliches about growing jobs, training blah blah .
      All they have ever been asked to do is hospital, school ,etc these groups of people have had decades & billions of OUR MONEY & still not delivered & never will. they got us here so to think they are capable of leading us out is suicidal. Bradbury protesteth too much – his evidence light, insult heavy fatwa from behind his face diaper politics from the backseat of his driverless car on the way to get his family vaccinated, against fellow citizens legitimately participating (as he did) in our system is churlish & as destructive as anything Billy TK jnr is doing.
      “conspiracy deniers” put us all at risk

  7. I just groan & hit the mute button whenever Judith or any of her Motley Party opens their pie holes. It must take a helluva effort, by Judith, to suppress the hatred that bubbles just below her surface, she’s one NASTY piece of work that isn’t fooling anyone. I feel for Labour & Jacinda who have endured so much over the last 3 yrs, having to endure the restrictions of Coalition because of the other 2 Parties, especially NZ First, stymieing their policies, then being hit by 3 major crisis with the mass shooting, White Island disaster & now this once in a lifetime Worldwide Pandemic with the near constant criticism & attacks by the negative Nats, horrible NZ Media (Hoskins, Hawkesby & Soper) & thankless, moaning kiwi’s! Kiwi’s need to take a look around the World & see what’s happening elsewhere before putting the boot into Jacinda & Labour, its a shitshow everywhere! It must be so disheartening, exhausting & tiring putting up with this nonsense from ignorant people but Jacinda & Labour has handled the pressure with courage & compassion? As a contrast, you can imagine the utter disaster we’d be in if the greedy, soulless National Party, had’ve been in charge or got that chance if elected? We’d be like Trumps America with thousands of NZers infected & hundreds dead from COVID, blaming everyone else for this catastrophe just as Trump does! National’s braindead solution is laid bare, more Trickledown, Neoliberal Bailouts for Corporate cronies & Farmers who don’t need it & Tax cuts for the Rich high earners & privatisation of our Borders! That’s their answer as they farm out our Pandemic response & Border Security to the Private Sector & Serco? As if 40 yrs of Privatisation by National with selling off the Railways, Education, Energy & Electricity Sector, Forestry, Water etc has given us cheaper costs! How ludicrous by a Party of morons & idiots stuck in a Retro 1980’s Thatcherite mentality! This Pandemic has shown up Neoliberalism as a massive failure & scam that’s been incapable of solving the problems of this Pandemic & the Economic problems that’s happened as a result of this? Where was the Private sector when people needed help from COVID? Missing in action & no where to be seen, it took collective effort & Governments to help people affected by the Pandemic, not privatisation & the bankruptcy of Neoliberalism! You only need to look at America as a example of the mess Neoliberalism has caused because its all about Individuals over the common good! Jacinda & Labour are Kiwis only sensible choice because the alternative of having National in charge is to frightening a prospect too consider taking that risk with your Future!

  8. Well said KiwiAntz also the UK is also in a fucken mess. In fact many of the worlds countries lead by very wealthy powerful clowns are doing far worse with Covid than us, and why ? cause its all about the money not their people, who are suffering. In the meantime who is putting their hands out for the government wage subsidies. I saw the list its full of foreign owned companies. Yes neoliberalism is not and will not work and just when you think things are going to get better governments interfere with the market, pulling away the levers for one to escape poverty just to ensure those at the top stay there.

  9. Don’t be ridiculous this is not a set-up, it was clear that Ardern was tired but she did okay. Frankly I think that Campbell did a good job and I suspect the next one will be a mess. He has been doing this live debate since at least 1999.

    Talk about conspiracy stuff. I agree the camera angles were not great, not once did you see Collins from the side angle, you saw Ardern from it all the time, her of the angst and hand wringing. I just thought Collins was quite sharp really but wasn’t pressed sufficiently on why she thinks she shouldn’t have to pay a capital gains tax. But Ardern now she really really cares about poverty as we all know she just hasn’t done anything ‘big’ about it.

    Me I will vote Green the best of the lot although they leave lots to be desired!

  10. The sour apple is Green.

    1. The green potential in AONZ lies between 20-25% of the popular vote,
    when looking at the political values covered by the party.

    2. The left public and the individual (eco)-socialist in AONZ has not much to vote for, but there is plenty to vote against.

    3. A large majority of Kiwis is very much concerned about climate change, and they are also pessimistic that the country will meet the climate change challenge.

    4. Global ecological and social awareness is increasing, with the possibility for a sudden adhoc acceleration.

    5. If reaching less than 10% in the AONZ elections it must call for a change in strategy and practice of the Green Party.

    6. Right now, the Greens are not matching the expectations; but neither does the NZ Labour Party.

    7. For successful Climate Change Adaptation we need a different mindset. And the roll-back of neo-liberalism in all its forms.

    8. By voting Green the strategic perspectives for the Ecological Left are slightly better than by voting Labour into a majority position.

    9. The Green Party has to be changed from within. Or we need to build an alternative social and ecological platform.

    10. Conclusion: not idealizing the present party formations but voting against a possible greater disadvantage.

    The sour apple is Green. Bite in it.

    Bite in it …
    … and follow the gardening practitioner …
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSMhFCopWu8

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