What the Prefu says about the political landscape 1 month out from the election

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So the Prefu is out, the compulsory opening of the books by the Treasury so every political party goes into the election knowing exactly where the country is placed economically.

And it’s not good.

The numbers are all huge, bleak and the worst we’ve seen in modern history.

The good news is that things won’t be so bad here in NZ because of the success NZ has had in keeping the virus out, however the rest of the planet will continue to be infected and   that will drag on our exports.

Treasury predict the borders will reopen in 2022, when we are most likely to have a working vaccine so this is amputated economy minus exploited international students, exploited migrant workers and valueless hyper tourism is the new normal.

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We won’t end the deficits until the end of the decade.*

This pandemic response is a marathon, not a sprint.

We will refine our responses and we will plug loopholes as we progress, but there’s no way in hell that anyone is going to accept mass sickness and mass graves just so the fucking private economy can make a buck.

The scientific math is that for every 1000 sick people through quarantine, 1 infected person will get through. That means a tight border with a ruthless track and trace regime alongside levelled restrictions IS THE ONLY response until we get a vaccine!

The problem for National is that they have been all over the place with the border…

…so National’s criticisms on the debt will fall on deaf ears. people expect the Government to take on debt to protect them from an unprecedented event, they will reward Labour for doing that in less than a month with a majority Government.

This won’t be the ammunition National were hoping for.

This is how people are feeling…

…Labour saved us from the immediacy of the public health threat, can they now rebuild the economy as well?

 

*I’d originally written pay of the debts when I meant the deficit.

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31 COMMENTS

  1. “We won’t pay the debt off until the end of the decade.” ???????

    That’s not what it says at all.

    It says we won’t even have stopped borrowing more until then … or for another five years after that. We won’t begin to start paying off the debt until 2035 at the earliest. Better hope there are no more disasters or other shocks before then.

      • We’re all in it by ourselves and for ourselves.

        The instant the shit hits the fans we’re all in it together we need to help each other, we are interdependent. Act.

        • Could you imagine anyone let alone your own political representatives doing as you suggest? You advocate we have mob rule.

          Change always begins with minorities so we can expect more crises.

          My position is I do not want some sort of roided upstate. What I believe. is we should have more trade.

          Don’t be naive, capitalism has an unbelievable ability to transform whatever obstacle.

          And here is where you would whack everyone 60% tax.

          • I’m all for higher taxes, personally, especially on the tax dodging wealthy, and actually mate, it’s human ingenuity that adapts. Everything in your cell phone cam out of publicly funded research, and the free market globalism you advocate has decimated the middle class.
            So just remember those facts before you go on another capitalism will save us tirade… oh did I mention the planet is on the verge of ecological collapse as well as economic collapse?
            The data are is in, there is no doubt the system is in dire need of an overhaul, and let’s get money and corporate propaganda out of politics for a start.

          • Are you saying that any country that doesn’t tax itself to pay for infrastructure will also be able to afford doctors, engineers, scientists and tradies?
            Your brain farts might seem like fun to you Ada but a poor excuse for a convincing argument.
            Any country that doesn’t tax its rich at the expense of the working class will always end up in a death spiral.

          • So we should just close down hospitals then, and charge people more to go to the GP.

            I will fight to the death for our health system. Can I trust you to do the same?

          • Ada,

            The majority = anything over 50%. Can you point out please where the Government has signaled their intent to tax people 50%+ of their “wages” or were you just talking shit?

            • Comment from Herman Shovel Ready September 16, 2020 at 8:15 pm
              I recommend you pay…say..hmm…60% tax from 50K upwards.. Howzat for a recommendation?

              Try to keep up, Jacindafan

          • ….and if all these tradies do emigrate cause they cant
            countenance kiwi employment pay and conditions( like the rest of us have too), then good luck to them and don’t f…..g come back.

      • Left – tax, tax, tax
        Right – cut, cut, cut
        Reserve Bank – print, print, print

        As predictable as a Tywford infrastructure project being a non-starter.

        Grant has pissed all the money against the wall. Would National have done anything different – yeah, nah. Why is the government so worried about getting the dope referendum over the line and National non plussed – to meet the interest payments!!!

        Yet:
        -We still have the super age at 65 and non means tested
        -Still fund zombie businesses that will fail regardless
        -Encourage speculative investment in landed assets (thanks to the RB)
        -Still contribute to the super fund by ‘borrowing’ (read: printing) money

        Can anyone please explain logically how we get out of this hole without massive, unsustainable immigration from East Asia and the Indian subcontinent?

    • Hooton the failed Muller and National Party cheerleading parasite. I wonder if TVNZ will invite him back to offer his perspective after the leader’s debate this time around. Give him another opportunity to farcically attack Ardern and call her a liar after the debate while running interference on behalf of the National Party. Total P.O.S

    • Hey Hooten.
      Who owns all the world’s debt, and should we be worried about paying it back.
      Or is debt just a means for the elite to seize all assets, as in land.

  2. …Labour saved us from the immediacy of the public health threat, can they now rebuild the economy as well?

    Hell no. The main problem- as a good many have argued in this forum- is that “the economy” as we know it is predicated on unsustainable exploitation of resources and frivolous consumption. What is needed is a paradigm shift in thinking. Not an economic system based on survival of the fittest aka natural selection but an ecological way of doing things grounded in symbiosis and cooperation. And I don’t think Labour have that in them. Do any of us, other than occasional virtue signalling?

  3. Elephant in the room. There’s a herd! Time to start taking about raising super and of course means testing it. Of course serious adult discussion is beyond our leaders and population who would rather debate adding additional holidays and/or whether to rename the country Aotearoa……this is going to get ugly v. Quickly

  4. In this case Martyn is a glass half full kind of guy but the glass is cracked and leaking. What the country won’t put up with for long is massive unemployment and bankruptcy by a thousand cuts. The rest can be miss represented, distorted and neglected no matter who’s in power. Labour is already good at promising the impossible so that’s always a good tactic. For a while.

    • “Does really anyone think having money is more important than having a habitable planet to live on?

      The National Party and Phil O’Reilly.

  5. Collins really needs to have a serious review of her strategy.

    Her cataclysmic Hindenberg disaster like response to the Prefu was flat and oh so predictable. The only question I have is did she/ the Nats write that last week or last month?

    • Says more about the middle of NZ than the national party. The bulk of what she said was bang on however the majority of NZ thinks they are extras in the Lego movie singing “everything is awesome”. It’s not far from it – the downer from Grant’s sugar rush is about to hit

  6. DEBT is the excuse for implementing and continuing with neoliberal polices.
    1984 NZ is broke so crisis management is required so only reform and market policies will save us.
    Now we have billions more debt than 1984 after 35 years of hardline neoliberal policies only more borrowing will save us.
    After 36 years of bullshit ( increase productivity ,balance the books for our generation, and trading our way to prosperity and the low wage economy re the employment contracts act) i will still sleep soundly tonight.

  7. So the scientific math is that for every 1000 sick people through quarantine, 1 infected person will get through. We have had 148 infected people at the border and 3 cases have leaked. The current big cluster, the maintainence worker and the nurse at the quarantine facility. You can argue that the big cluster does not have a proven starting point but Ashley pretty much confirmed it was likely a border issue this week.

    We are along way away from 1 in a 1000.

  8. and this Friday / Saturday:

    https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/internationalism-or-extinction-inaugural-summit-of-the-pi-tickets-118538117701

    Summit Program

    1. What Comes After Capitalism? A keynote by Yanis Varoufakis, followed by a panel discussion with Vijay Prashad, Ece Temelkuran, and Nick Estes 14:00 – 15:30 UTC

    The horizon of post-capitalism is coming into clearer focus —
    but it remains to be seen if the post-capitalist economy will be authoritarian and oligarchic or democratic and social. Yanis Varoufakis kicks off a panel discussion of how we can win the fight for a post-capitalist future.

    2. The Years of Repair, a keynote by Naomi Klein, followed by a panel discussion with Katrín Jakobsdóttir, Tasneem Essop, Vanessa Nakate and Aruna Roy 16:00 – 17:30 UTC

    The Covid-19 pandemic has imposed lock downs around the world. How can we harness the new pace of our lives to heal the deep rifts in our societies? Join Naomi Klein and other members of the Council to discuss how we can use this time for reparation on multiple fronts: climate, race, economy, and infrastructure.

    3. Internationalism or Extinction, a keynote by Noam Chomsky, followed by a panel discussion with Nanjala Nyabola, Cornel West, and John McDonnell 18:00 – 19:30 UTC

    Capital is coordinated. Our struggles against injustice and oppression must be the same. Noam Chomsky and other members of the Council set out the existential threat facing humanity — and how the Progressive International can fight back.

    4. Reclaiming Democracy in Latin America, co-hosted by Wiphalas Across the World, with Luis Arce, Andrés Arauz, Alicia Castro & more 20:00 – 21:30 UTC

    We are witnessing the destruction of democratic institutions across Latin America and around the world. Join Luis Arce — Bolivian presidential candidate from the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS-IPSP) — Alicia Castro, Andrés Arauz, Gustavo Petro, and Wiphalas Across the World to discuss how progressive forces are fighting to reclaim democracy and popular sovereignty in Bolivia and across Latin America against increasing powerful tactics of legal warfare, or ‘lawfare.’

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