Good to see so many mainstream media pundits finally catching up to where TDB has been for the last 6 months.
Comrades you can read it here first or wait for the mainstream media to catch up.
For the record.
- With the enrolment rule changes that allow for enrolment on the day, prisoner voting alongside booths in Marae, I think we will see a larger turnout than is being predicted.
- I think overseas votes will go overwhelmingly to Labour and not the Greens.
- I think with the huge number of fringe parties we will see more wasted vote than ever before.
- I think the Government will be a Labour Majority.
- I think National will be lucky to gain 30%.
- I think Judith will increasingly become more desperate and vicious.
- NZ First won’t be politically relevant.
- The only hope for the Greens is Auckland central.
- ACT will suffer rapid growth pains from candidates they haven’t vetted properly.
- Labour only need 47% on election night to get scaled up for a majority AFTER specials get counted.
- Greens must hit 4.5% on election night to successfully get scaled up over the 5% threshold AFTER specials get counted..
- NZ First must hit 5.5% on election night to guarantee they won’t get scaled down AFTER specials get counted.
- Because of the high amount of wasted vote, the Māori Party should be able to gain an extra seat from their list with as little as 1% if they win an electorate seat.
So what are progressives supposed to do if Labour win an unprecedented majority Government?
If we see a Majority Labour Government, the factions inside Labour become politically relevant for the first time since MMP.
It is to those factions that progressive activists must turn to in order to gain real policy change post October 17th.
It will be the new Labour factions that wield the power.
Union, Māori, Feminist, Public Service, Rainbow.
If Labour are the majority post the election, progressives need to immediately call for a giant Hui with the Labour factions and reach out to see where common ground can be found.
A Liberal Carnival if you will that can channel this enormous political mandate towards the urgent changes we need to see implemented in the first 100 days of a second term Labour Government.
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