Okay, so we are in Level 3 again. The virus has jumped out of no where into South Auckland, the DNA doesn’t match what we’ve had come through the border quarantine process but the track and trace programme has been very successful in clamping down on all the contacts and the speed with which the cauterisation process has kicked in looks like it has saved us.
Take a small gasp of air, we are doing well NZ. As of this moment. That can change dramatically at any point of course.
But breathe. Preferably with a mask.
There are 6 possible ramifications from Auckland in Lockdown 3.
1: Another mistake saved by luck?
There is anger that workers at the frontline weren’t being tested as regularly as they should have, but the DNA of the Virus isn’t from any of our border quarantine cases, so the virus came back in either off a cold surface at the cold store in South Auckland OR it slipped past the border undetected and immediately went to the cold store in South Auckland.
You can see which option is more likely so that is why all the focus is now on the possibility it has come through on a cold surface because the likelihood that it slipped past the border while making no one sick and then immediately went to the cold store is really, really, really unlikely.
So the lack of testing each week might end up being another mistake that gets saved by luck, but if it has come through on a surface, that actually changes everything.
More about that latter, but if the entry point isn’t the border, then the lack of testing won’t become the great political moment of incompetence that Judith requires to win.
Oh and let’s just remind everyone again, the State can’t compel you to take a medical procedure, remember? Hipkins doesn’t want to get into that intellectual and philosophical debate because the country has no sense of nuance right now, but let’s remember that if the State says it will compel medical tests, just imagine how the Christ that goes down in the conspiracy theory community that National are nurturing.
2: Woke Identity Politics inflaming MAGAtanga
When the virus first broke out earlier this year, woke identity politics activists flooded twitter with accusations that anyone suggesting the virus was dangerous was xenophobic and racist…
…and now the woke are back claiming Barbara Dreaver’s identification of the family in Auckland being a Pacific Island family was somehow racist, that the mandatory quarantining is racist and that the ever increasingly grim wheel of victimhood that is intersectionist politics has been spun and the micro aggressions calculated to conclude that Pacific Islanders are the victims!
I appreciate that there is an intellectual argument to be made here by those Pacifica Island Intellectuals and public health luminaries with historical examples to back them up but the comparisons are shallow and overlook the reality that is poverty in the South Auckland Pacifica community where over crowding IS an issue. Pointing at wealthy white boomers returning with the virus and being able to quarantine in their large warm homes and claiming the mandatory quarantine of over crowded communities is racist manages to ignore the realities a public health campaign needs to navigate while also feeding the MAGAtanga QAnon conspiracy theorists with all the racism ammunition they need to produce more panic and fear.
3: Immediate Amnesty for Overstayers
We know there is a shadow Pacifica Island community of around 5000 overstayers who avoid all interactions with officials for fear of being deported, until we have a vaccine, we must immediately pass an amnesty for all over stayers and encourage them to enrol and connect with their local community health providers to inoculate ourselves from the possibility of an outbreak through all overstayer communities. To deport human beings during a pandemic is unacceptable enough, to deny them health access that will ultimately endanger us all is totally irrational.
4: Labour to gain more gratitude votes
If the track and trace processes have worked and we really have caught this early, the professionalism and speed with which Jacinda has handled it will give her more gratitude votes and Labour will triumph at the election. If they have missed the contact point, and it hasn’t come off a cold surface but doesn’t spread anywhere else, they will still succeed.
The only way this implodes is if the leak is traced to an incompetence that the public genuinely believe is Jacinda’s fault. We haven’t seen any evidence of that.
5: Push out the election to stop Judith Collins destroying NZ Democracy
Since taking over as leader, Judith has displayed a gasp inducing, breath taking ability of malevolence well beyond your average politician. Her ‘what’s wrong with being white’ race baiting, her purposeful side stepping of Falloon so her first weekend of media wasn’t stained, her execution of Iain Lees-Galloway on live TV, her avoidance to act immediately with ‘Merv’, her draconian policies and her promotion of Conspiracy theories to damage the Government have all highlighted why the rest of the National Party never trusted her with the power of leadership until their were forced to by self-destructive despair after Muller imploded.
The conspiracy theory peddling shows that there is no lower level to which Judith won’t stoop and with the realisation that the Party will execute her mercilessly once she loses, her desperation will only push her to feed that dark part pf her psyche which frightens the rest of us.
If Judith were forced to fight a September 19th election and failed I fear she would pull a Trump, that she would claim the election was biased, unfair and rigged. Now, at any normal time that would be laughed off as the hysterical ravings of someone who fought and was found lacking in every possible category and in their bitter defeat have turned on the process to eclipse their own terminal short comings.
Sadly these are not normal times.
Rump National voters are already a brutal lot who feed and celebrate spite, give them a justification to question the legitimacy of a Labour led Government and they will turn septic. Include the conspiracy theorists who have spread like herpes on Facebook and you have the toxic ingredients of treason and insurrection fed on a poisonous political lie of the election being corrupt.
Judith is more than capable of attempting to burn the entire system if she doesn’t win, that is her nature.
6: Reminder that we aren’t actually talking about the reality of Mordor outside the Shire
If the virus has come through on a cold surface, this will have an enormous impact on freight in and out of the country, no one is thinking about that right now and it highlights what the true danger here really is.
We have a Government too busy to fight the pandemic to see over the horizon and we have a desperate Opposition who can only win if the virus wins so have no incentive to provide solutions.
We urgently need a cross segment of civil society to meet and discuss what the new normal looks like until a vaccine is available because our political system can’t fight the crisis and create solutions at the same time.
The reality of this pandemic is that it is going to get far worse.
It took 10 months to get to 10million global infections, 50 days to get to another 10million. You think things are bad with 20 million infected, imagine how bad 100 million global infections will be.
Mordor is raging beyond the shores of the Shire, but it’s always trying to get in. We need an urgent revamp of what living through this looks like to all business and all citizens and we need that debate urgently to try and find a consensus while urgently robbing the conspiracy theorists of oxygen.
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