Watching Weka scramble around on the Standard trying to beg left wing voters to vote Greens is glorious isn’t it?
It’s like Green activists spend 3 years alienating the electorate and then realise months before the election that their woke middle class identity politics virtue signalling hasn’t won them any friends.
Last election TDB called on the Left to Party vote Green so Labour could be in a position to negotiate a deal with NZ First, but this election Labour look like they will win an outright majority.
As the political punditry start to come around to the argument TDB has been making that Labour will win a majority Government, what sort of Green Party does a Labour majority Government want?
Scenario 1 – Greens win 5%+
As a majority Government, Labour wouldn’t need the Greens and will have a whole new influx of former National Party voters so Labour won’t be implementing any of the Greens more radical tax policy but it would probably be smart for Labour to include the Greens in any post election arrangement to keep their own liberal activists on side and the Greens on a tight leash. Expect very few concessions from Labour
Scenario 2 – Greens under 5% but win Auckland Central
In this scenario Chloe Swarbrick wins Auckland Central and brings in MPs off the Green Party List, she would have to become co-leader of the Party and Labour would have to include her in the Government to avoid her being able to attack Labour from the Left. In this scenario the Greens could gain more out of any negotiation. Chloe as leader poses far more threat to Labour than the current leadership do.
Scenario 3 – Labour doesn’t win a majority and need Greens
If Labour don’t win an outright majority, the Green negotiating team will need to prioritise the policy they want passed in the first 100 days so they can show voters meaningful change and don’t end up in the same position of barely getting over 5% they are in now. That would require the kind of strategic forward thinking the Greens haven’t managed to show over the last 3 years.
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