New UMR Poll has Labour over 50% – AGAIN!

Relationship coach, National Leader and hairnet advocate Todd Muller

No Mullermania yet for Todd Muller in first poll since leadership change

A UMR poll the week after Todd Muller took over as National Party leader has shown no immediate change to the National Party’s fortunes, although Muller has debuted at 13 per cent as preferred Prime Minister.

The poll results had National on 30 per cent – just 1 per cent higher than the 29 per cent it scored on the last such UMR poll under Simon Bridges’ leadership at the end of April.

The poll has Labour still well ahead of National on 54 per cent, NZ First was on 5 per cent and the Green Party on 4 per cent.

UMR is the polling company used by the Labour Party, but this was one of a regular series taken for its corporate clients rather than Labour.

TDB Recommends

Labour – 54%

National – 30%

NZ First – 5%

Greens – 4%

This is the 4th consecutive poll that shows Labour can govern alone.

This poll was taken after Muller’s coup and while he is personally more popular than Simon Bridges was, the Party vote remained mutilated.

30% is a humiliation.

My argument is that the electorate watched Jacinda throughout the lockdown and are grateful to Labour and that this represents a sea change in the electorate, a change in the psychology of voters.

They are grateful to Jacinda and they believe she has earned a second term.

In this poll it doesn’t matter if NZ First gets over 5% because on these numbers Labour doesn’t need Winston.

The Greens continue to poll under the 5% threshold. I’ve written so many blogs explaining why the Greens have made themselves politically irrelevant that it doesn’t seem fair to rub it in any more.

But fuck fairness.

These clowns still don’t seem to understand that they are in survival mode this election and that their last 3 years spent micro aggression policing every middle class woke pure temple mantra makes them as alienating as cold vomit.

Will someone please wake up in the Green Party HQ or they are gone burger this election.

in 2017 TDB called on Left voters to rally around the Greens to ensure Jacinda had the numbers to form a Government with NZ First when the Greens dramatically polled under the 5% threshold.

This year, TDB will be releasing our tactical strategy for Left progressive voters closer to the election.

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  1. I strategically voted green in 2017 only for them to give the strongest opposition in NZ history their questions. Every single time I convince myself to strategically vote for them they come out with some loop woke statement or news will come out like when they held the abortion reform process up due to the wording of “pregnant woman vs pregnant person”

    Auckland is in an epic water crisis, the whole country is …. Yet we hear more about woke identity issues from the greens than enviromental issues. I may strategically vote for the greens but they deserve a hiding this election, I hope they get 5% with just 30 votes to spare mostly so labour has a viable left wing coalition partner but also because if the greens die, that woke hyper identity upper middle class contingent that thinks free speech is fascism will join the Labour party and Labour has enough rich people without the people who destroyed the greens joining up!

    • I share your pain Corey Humm.

      One of the issues are the high list Green members are all in the wrong party. Marama would be more comfortable in the Maori Party, the rest of the Greens high on the list should be in Labour and somehow got in on woke credentials not Green credentials so of course the woke speak is top of the list in everything because they don’t have a clue about anything green … and when woke go anywhere there seems be massive internal conflict and public spats because it is all about being in or being out…. also their list is pretty easy to do dirty politics on, because you only need $5 and six months membership to vote I believe…

      • saveNZ Indeed. I see the Greens as primarily courting the Maori vote, but am not sure if the Maori Party would find some of Marama’s more extreme views palatable.

        • The weird thing is by courting the Maori vote, aren’t they destroying the Maori Party? Greens did not seem very supportive of the Mana party…. It’s like doing the opposite of what the Greens say they care about… which is far from the Green ideals that the party was built on…

          I don’t think the Green MP’s are the worst MP’s in parliament, but they are in the wrong party and at the wrong level of list order….

          Even Eugenie Sage who I used to have a soft spot for based on thinking she was for the environment, has made some of the biggest disasters aka more water to the overseas bottlers polluting the water ways with more plastic bottles and undermining local interests including iwi who are generally against water bottling like 95% of local communities… while giving more Overseas Investment Authority consents under her watch.

          I mean they banned the plastic bag to add more water bottle pollution around the world. It’s nuts.

          Let alone robbing the community of an important public asset, like water.

    • Same here exactly I would be nice to see The Greens actually speak up about the health funding debacle that is now beyond a joke .

      Even Action Station has just replied to my email re the dysfunction I have identified in the welfare-health-medicines funding scenario, at the low income / relationship end of the health funding problem, saying they had not even thought about it.

      Well my pushing over the last 6 years being a pushy bugger is starting to make head way.

      But how to get in into the wider public sphere is another problem.

  2. The Election may very well gift Jacinda her just deserves for her very favorable perfomrance in the 1st term. BUT, unless we rapidly distance ourselves from the Neoliberalist Corporate Takeover we’ve gone through over the years that have done so poorly for 50+% of us, we are going to continue to struggle with inequality until it blows up in our face and brings us all down as the Global financial System falls off a cliff in the near future. Nows the time to be considering the possibility of a NZ Cooperative UBI, or an NZBI where we are all shareholders in this country. We don’t have a “can to kick down the road” anymore so we better start looking after each other!

  3. Martyn,
    As ‘Old past members of the green Party like me and my wife (both over 70 yrs old’ – fondly remember in 2000 when we were rallying for ‘climate change’ and ‘smart transport – such as using rail’ were counterpoints of our environmental concerns along with the eco-environment taking centre stage.

    In 2000 we met Jeanette Fitzsimmons and Rod Donald who both uplifted us to heights of inspiration that carried us through the next decade, but then something happened when Green Party joined with national as a confidence and supply partner’ then and afterwards GP policies have gone downhill since then.

    The last bastion of old Greens is Gareth Hughes and sadly he is jumping ship before the next election sadly, but we like Jan Logie she sounds authentic as the old style Green Party membership, and should be high up in the Party by now.

  4. It’s probably going to be hard if not impossible for National to achieve anything much of anything this year and in the election.

    Their(Nationals) track record to date is one that doesn’t really encourage anyone wanting to vote for them. They have a previous leader that galavanted around the N.I during lockdown because he claimed he didn’t have good internet access in his home. And he most likely passed, as per usual, his travel costs onto the NZ taxpayers to pay.

    They now have a leader who thinks Donald Trump is probably the best thing since sliced bread and even had a hat on display of MAGA. Mind you it would be interesting to hear what Muller’s internet access is like considering he too is from the Bay of Plenty??!!!!

    I don’t think National has a Hells chance of getting back into government because they are too selfish, self-absorbed, ego ridden and driven and arrogant. And most likely some of them live in Vanity Projects and Photo Opportunities.

    I sure as heck wouldn’t vote National. Once bitten twice shy remembering the fake promises John Key made in the lead up to the 2008 election.

  5. National: “Hey everyone, now this nasty virus thingy is under control, let’s get back to running with that trickledown theory. It’s bound to work at some stage.”

    NZ Voters: *tumbleweeds*

  6. Still very high Numbers for Labour.

    It’s about trends isn’t it though – down a percent from the last poll (although well within margin of error), and knowing it’s unlikely to go higher as economic damage becomes more evident = expect a gradual slide in Labour numbers.
    I’d say Labour very unlikely to get outright majority but likely to get the most votes comfortably at the election.
    Greens over poll and are still drifting lower, likely gone.

    NZ First could go either way IMO.
    ACT figures not given by UMR (why?)

    • Yeah I’d say Labour will be mid to high 40’s come election time. National low to mid 30’s. NZF will get across the line with a few National Party defectors wanting them there to stifle Labour. Greens on 4 or 5%, dependent on Jacinda giving Labour voters a wink and a nudge to get them over the threshold. Anytime Labour is popular the Greens are going to struggle.

      • Not after next election.
        ACT are Likely to have more MPs than the Greens on current polling (2-4 vs zero)
        Because you (or UMR? ) don’t like them doesn’t make them less relevant.
        I’ll even spell it out:
        If Labour is not a majority government after the election as is the likely situation, and if the greens are gone as is looking likely currently, the other minor parties, ACT, NZ First and Maori are going to be very very important.
        With NZ first on very low numbers currently and the Maori party a punt on Tamihere, that means ACT is pretty important.
        No emotion necessary in that assessment 🙂

  7. Imagine a leader of a political party in any other country in the world, earnestly exhorting a public audience to start normalising usage of the word, cunt.

    Apart from being a bit adolescent, the thing is that this was all about Marama. Marama had been wounded, and the country had to restore her hurt feelings by neutralising the wounding weapon.

    It was a possibly unintended glimpse of yet another politician seeing the people as here to serve their interests, rather than they existing to serve us. It was also a colossal waste of time.

    The night of the Green women’s anti-white proselytising, was when I knew I could no longer support them.

    I would have appreciated it had they had the courtesy to reply to my email about the Davidson and Ghahraman Waka Jumping/Parihaka Day machinations, but they didn’t; the behaviour of two or three of their young women negates my support – I think them racist – regret previously backing them.

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