It was apparent from January that something terrible was going on inside China.
The distance between what the Chinese were telling us publicly and what they were desperately doing in the background were too far apart to be the same event.
I believe a lockdown was inevitable and the only radical option to prevent 80 000 New Zealanders dying within months.
This matters not just for the immediacy of our public health or the looming Greater Depression, but because our values as a Democracy are being tested.
Authoritarian regimes rely on large standing armies harshly enforcing the will of the state to survive crises, in a democracy the good will of fellow citizens bonds a unity that works in solidarity.
That good will can only be maintained by an honest appraisal of where we are, and to that end we must start being honest with New Zealanders over the length of this lockdown so that they are prepared and open eyed to the challenge in front of us.
Preventing 80 000 deaths over the economy by shutting down the nation is not only a priority of immediacy, you can’t seriously expect a shell shocked community in grief to work as a society let alone an economy after a loss of life that large.
That’s not to downplay the economic apocalypse about to hit us, but that’s a monster fought right after we’ve saved as many lives as we can.
So.
4 weeks lockdown is not going to be enough and we need to start admitting that so citizens are prepared.
We can’t seriously shut down the nation and the economic damage that causes without being 100% sure the bloody virus has been smothered, because if we have to go back into lockdown because we came out of quarantine too soon, the initial sacrifice is wasted.
Incubation time of the virus is 14 days, but there are cases where it has been 19 days and 27 days, so we went into lockdown on Wednesday 25th meaning the majority of infections will appear by April 8th in the second week of the 4 week lockdown, but we need to KNOW the damned virus has been completely eradicated, so that takes us out to April 21st for the last possible incubation date and we would need at least 2 weeks of no new infections to know the sacrifice had been worth it.
So it’s far more likely that we are talking a 6 week minimum lockdown, not 4 weeks, and that’s based on people not spreading the virus during the first 3 weeks of lockdown!
The Government must be prepared to extend rent freezes, wage subsidy and business aid throughout the extended lockdown to keep people from panicking as the reality sinks in.
To this end, Jacinda can be thankful for Trump.
The appalling manner in which he has mishandled the outbreak with a naked incompetence that is excruciating to witness will be our back drop to extending the lockdown.
The full blown pandemic that we are about to see erupt in America will give Jacinda every justification for extending the lockdown and NZers watching in horror as the corpses in America mount will beg her for harsher penalties to anyone caught breaching curfew.
With that cheerful thought, let’s consider the second tsunami that is about to strike.
An economic apocalypse.
It will be far worse than the GFC, the Greater Depression is coming.
Westpac forecasts unemployment will climb by 200,000, and the nature of the virus being able to re-infect means businesses must be prepared to shut down again if new quarantine measures are required.
The hegemonic structure of neoliberalism will be destroyed beyond repair.
This Pandemic is a direct symptom of the climate crisis. As more habitats are destroyed with cheek to jowl over population, viruses that can spread between different species will increase not dissipate.
A vast reimagining of the economy with self sufficiency at its heart will replace globalised free market dogma as an economic philosophy.
A UBI replacing all benefits with fully funded public services designed to help and not punish will be required with enormous investment into a self sufficient economic Tino rangatiratanga.
The realisation that we need economic sovereignty to empower a functioning State that has the resources to protect us from external shocks in a world being defined by external shocks can have powerful consequences politically, culturally and economically.
As we end our first week in lockdown, I am so grateful these 2 are running things – it gives me real hope we will get through this…
Kia Kaha.
Increasingly having independent opinion in a mainstream media environment which mostly echo one another has become more important than ever, so if you value having an independent voice going into this pandemic and 2020 election – please donate here.
If you can’t contribute but want to help, please always feel free to share our blogs on social media.
TDB Team 2020.
My views differ slightly to yours Martyn. I can see us further entrenching neoliberalism after we hopefully get through this pandemic. More and more of us will be thinking about ourselves not the greater good. Expect monopolies to increase as small businesses fold under the financial strain and expect the inequality gap to widen dramatically. I am not in favour of a UBI currently. But if it is to happen, I do not believe the Bob Jones of this world should be getting it which would mean I’m not in favour of the universality of it. This is scary times, but the revolution many of us are hoping to happen is simply a pipe dream. We will become more selfish and greedy and I believe in general society will to. I seriously hope I’m wrong, but my head and the facts after other crises, says I’m right.
What ever the case we are going to have to invent new and more sophisticated methods for dealing with massive new records of all time highs of debt.
I’d be happy for the Bob Jones’ to have a UBI if at the same time they’re taxed hard and all the UBI, and more, is repaid through higher tax. It’s easier and cheaper doing it this way. I am more positive than you about the changes to self sufficiency though as I see a lot of local opportunity in this which many will take up. Going back to how we used operate for the future to have a chance will be what we have to do to survive. A lot of local small industries will restart which closed due to cheap overseas labour. I’m hopeful.
I want to respond to the neoliberal apologists who ask how it is that a government could for negative interest rates to 80% of taxpayers by saying that the neoliberal apologists calls it a “magic money tree” to confuse the underclass into thinking that getting money for 80% of taxpayers is difficult, complicated and slow. Where as the government during a crises like the corona crises can pump 12 billion into the economy literally over night.
What’s going on? Why’s that possible? What’s it mean?
To start with neoliberalizm has created a dependence on finance that Jane Kelsey calls in her book called the “Fire Economy” that you may have heard of. The simplest way to describe the fire economy is we now have government debt tracking back up to record numbers, record numbers of household debt, mortgage debt, credit card debt, car loan debt and the new student debt. We also have businesses and corporations who are indebted more than they’ve ever been. New Zealand has more debt than at any other time.
All this debt does is make the credit system more important and that’s what makes banks to-big-to-fail and is central to the way things work (that’s the real world). Anything that might impedes the credit system threatens the whole system with a shutdown. So it’s the Finance Ministers responsibility to insure that there’s enough money in the system to service all the players, the banks, lenders, borrowers, traders, workers, the lot.
We saw what happened when there isn’t enough money in the system during 2008. The banks got the bail outs and as the corona virus carries on more and more families will lose their jobs, losing their houses, mortgages, incomes and the 13 billion in bail outs to date is a laughably inadequate way of getting the money to where it’s needed.
As all of these failures to keep the system moving, set in, there really is only one recourse – The Reserve Bank will pump in new money and the way it does that is by creating a digital account that was larger than the one the banks had before to compensate for all the obstacles that the neoliberal apologist erects to make it difficult for money to circulate around the economy and to clear those blockages that keeps those channels of credit and remain open for business.
Since the Big-Four-Banks are the ones sitting on top of this neoliberal credit pyramid scheme they are the ones eager to get the bail out money when they’re in pain. And they’re much less eager to see money being created (if it were) to help normal people. Not that it couldn’t because it could. Society could decide to oil the credit system by giving everybody a weekly stipend instead of giving all that money to banks. The government becoming the employer of last resort could be done but given the neoliberal apologist that’s not how the minority of economic illiterates want the normal people to think the economy works.
As usually the problem isn’t technical or economics. The problem is social and political. If normal people allow neoliberal apologists to run the place for there tiny group of elite financial friends at the top dominating 80% of taxpayers then they will make the system work for the top 20% and that’s why 9 billion of the corona recovery package is going to the top 20% and only 4 billion goes to the bottom 80%.
That’s why the problems that could have been addressed in 2008 under John Key never got addressed and we could oil the credit market by giving money to the bottom 80% who never see it.
Martyn we need to bring forward President Trump’s plan to give every citizens (including the overlooked elderly) a large lump sum monthly income suppport Trump nare giving every one US $1200 eqivelent to NZ $1940 dollars per month, that will extend their lives by giving them the financial support for adequate medications for them to cope during this pandemic and this will positively stilmulate the economy.
We agree with your summmary of the time frame for a lockdown here as the incubation of contration of full effects of Convid 19 is around 17 to 27 days.
Martyn quotes; “Incubation time of the virus is 14 days, but there are cases where it has been 19 days and 27 days, so we went into lockdown on Wednesday 25th meaning the majority of infections will appear by April 8th in the second week of the 4 week lockdown, but we need to KNOW the damned virus has been completely eradicated, so that takes us out to April 21st for the last possible incubation date and we would need at least 2 weeks of no new infections to know the sacrifice had been worth it.
So it’s far more likely that we are talking a 6 week minimum lockdown, not 4 weeks, and that’s based on people not spreading the virus during the first 3 weeks of lockdown!”
Martyn we use two powerful natural medications using both ‘NEEM OIL’ and hydrogen peroxide Disinfectants which are antimicrobial agents that inactivate or destroy microorganisms around our property and we consume these disinfectats in minute amounts in water and in capsules when any infections arise as either a sore thrat or swollen lymph glands which signal infections trying to inhabit us.
Early intervention is the most important best response;
Most of all we all need to listen to our body; – as it will tell us when we are being invaded by pathigens.
We believe that our medical communities also need to use these disinfectants antimicrobial agents designed to inactivate or destroy microorganisms on inert surfaces to disaninfect their properties/hospitals and clinics.
Lastly we need to repatrate all Kiwiis (80 000) trappped overseas also as many are highhly skilled tradespeople or medical trained people who are seriously needed here now.
As important, if not more, than continued lock-down is identifying spread – maintaining trace and track during this period.
It is in the failure to trace and track and isolate those with or in contact with those with the virus that has resulted in this lock-down and will perpetuate it.
This involves returning Kiwis being more effectively quarantined and past lapses and spread identified. For example those at that Auckland girls school, people have complained about them being out and about with parents doing shopping – whereas I would have had all of their families in isolation and organised on-shopping for them. These people are spreading.
The Caoitalist System didnt go to war with itself for the first time in 1939 during WW2 it had broke many many times before in The Great Depression of the 1930’s and during World War 1. The industrial revolution was modernising, people were getting laid and the system requires full employment. So war was inevitable to give everyone a job.
This is what a UBI seeks to replace, War. A UBI seeks to address the insecurities of the people before war breaks out. It’s not just a radical transformation of the way the government interacts with its people the ultimate goal of a UBI is to reduce conflict.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_gMT4_PDJI
Prevent 80,000 deaths?! Where does this ridiculous figure come from?
Scaremongering nonsense. Makes me wonder whose payroll you’re on more and more these days Martyn.
I’m just here to see how professional the corona expert can make their comments.
Martyns plausible but worst case figure obviously depends on the number of the population who get infected ,,, and the mortality rate… with the first number having a direct affect on the second,,,
Because a overwhelmed failed health system not being able to provide medical care for those all those who need it,,, raises the mortality rate.,,,, its all to do with medical science and percentage rates ;).
I also think if we can get the testing kits and numbers up ,,, we can safely be under multi month full population lock downs. South Korea with a much larger population and case numbers than us ,,,, seems to be winning its war, Without the whole country being quarantined,,,, but they have done hundreds of thousands of tests ,,,, with daily test numbers being in the tens of thousands.
When we get to the test , test, test stage ,,, the lock down lid can be sensibly eased on the basis of knowledge and seeing the enemy,,,,
Looking on the bright side ,,,, New Zealand will be on track for the first time ever in our reduced greenhouse gas targets.
Also heres hoping the usa may be so weakened we can break free of their neo lib world rule by finance ,,,, and repair the neglected parts of our society.
We can no longer afford tax havens and crooked creative accounting if we are to have a mixed market economy with strong social programs ,,,, and environmental protections
Finally a golden rule for all business and production should be ,,,, If it’s not sustainable, it’s not allowed.
We should be smart enough to think for the future.
correction to my above post ,,,, it should have read ,,,,,’ we can safely resume some normality under or before the estimated time period of multi months full population lock downs.’
ie: a effective testing program will shorten the lock down time. You can fight better when you can see ,,,
I think you’re correct. Mass testing as well as self isolation is fundamental to bending the curve.
PinguFreck;
You had better cool your ‘blue heals’ on that statement.
The (WHO) ‘World Health Organisation’ has today warned that this virus “Covid 19′ is rapidly increasing globally”.
As when we see the death rate climb is approaching just half of that figure, you PinguFreck had better think again.
This pandemic virus ‘Covid 19’ is mentioned in the Los Angeles Times states, it ‘replicates itself in ‘second waves’ and possibly even lter third wave, we are told by the scientists!!! https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-05/chinese-scientists-say-second-coronavirus-strain-more-dangerous
Sorry, so dont think this is a ‘simple fix’ sunshine.
PinguFreak … are you really Donald Trump, infiltrating this site?
Martyn, I know you love her to death, and she’s the answer to world inflation and all that, but don’t get too rah rah Jacinda!!!! Remember, every big plan that JA and this Govt has boldly announced, has bombed! So I am erring on the sceptical side here.
Example: JA just cannot use the NO! as in NO driving to a surfspot!. NO driving to a park! NO driving to a soccerfield!…it’s all too wishy washy…too PC…to UN friendly…
What I’m saying is that in the end I’m trusting us people, not this govt, to pull us through.
This is a good article, I know I’ll cop flak, so start throwing it folks…
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/120581185/antivirus-measures-are-too-late-to-stop-needless-sickness-and-economic-pain?fbclid=IwAR3GOSYw9nCIWw7bYPKT1N0cEfgcKRu59UiAMl5_68TcKa37y4BL2FtX15k
And yet this from Sir John Key on the Nation yesterday:
On Thursday last week New Zealand’s borders were closed to all foreign arrivals.
Sir John Key acknowledged Jacinda Ardern has been criticised for this, with people saying it came too late.
“I know from being in that job that while maybe one person’s perspective, you have to weigh up a lot of different things,” he said.
“So to say close the border like she did, on one hand that will save lives but that’s an immediate recession which affects the most vulnerable who are the least equipped to deal with it…”
He refused to criticise Ardern saying that not only would it be unjustified, but it’s not what the country needs.
“This is a time we all have to pull together on this. This isn’t a political issue – it’s a catastrophic health emergency that the whole world is facing.”
Steve Elers is a modern day Hee Haw.
‘Neil Fergusson (Imperial College) warned of 500,000 UK deaths (himself now tested positive covid-19)
NOW says virus will probably kill under 20,000 in UK,
More than half of whom would have died by years end because so old and sick anyway.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_gMT4_PDJI
Fergusson had been earlier criticised by Oxford Epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta, reported in the Financial Times saying ‘I am surprised with such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial Model.’
Professor Gupta’s model suggested the virus had been invisibly spreading in UK at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding as many as half UK already were infected. And that if modelling was accurate, meant fewer than 1 in 1000 would become sick enough tor hospital..the vast majority free from symptoms. Meaning Fergusson’s highly influential model was out by orders of magnitude.’
Irrespective of any UBI being introduced the necessity for a 21st century ministry of works (or call it whatever name you like) is paramount. If the govt is going to manage the payroll then it has to manage the available labour force. The unemployment benefit could be done away with completely. We could go back to the future and have a solid infrastructure regime and a zero unemployment rate.
A few months ago Marima Davidson was in Chch . I went to the meeting she held and in question time I mentioned the need for the Ministry of Work to be brought back . I was surprised she had no idea of what this Ministry did and the history of the work they were responsible for eg dams .
We can all learn a lot by looking back to see the history of how this country grew and dealt with problems in the past.
I trust you or someone brought her up to speed Trevor.
I like to think the majority of NZers are considerate and respectful of their fellow Kiwis, working in solidarity to confine CV19. However today after learning of ignorant, selfish gits playing games in parks, while others are stupidly holding Covid 19 parties, I find my faith in Kiwis being severely challenged at this time!
The only way for these miscreants is to lock them up to keep them out of circulation at their own expense, until NZ is totally clear of CV19.
Good to see the government has set a time frame to reassess the effectiveness of lockdown, of April 6, in which I suspect it will take appropriate action depending on where the virus is at that stage.
1. I agree Martyn this will take longer than 4 weeks but we may be heading in the right direction by then which relative to the chaos of the US/ Spain and Italy may give kiwis the will to stay focused for longer .
2. The second and third waves of infection ,( from the 80,000 overseas kiwis returning home and the potential 300,000 unemployed Kiwis in OZ who can’t currently receive Australian welfare ) must be put in formal quarantine camps upon return where the ability to move around at will is made impossible until after the clearing period .
If this is not actively enforced we will be back to square one . And the expense of that is enormous .Self isolation simply doesn’t work . Letting 224,000 inbound tourists ‘self isolate ” while they actually roamed the country at will over 4 weeks in FEB/MARCH is what has caused this dilemma . Mandatory Formal Supervised Quarantine for all new arrivals from here forward.
3. Use of face masks at supermarkets and pharmacies should be made mandatory immediatley as this is the most dangerous activity during lockdown .
a] This is already the law in Peru .where you can’t enter a shop without a mask or you are fined by police .
b] We have 9 million corona proof n 95 masks in govt stock pile now according to the director of health fri 27th March .Lets use them .
c] It would greatly reduce transmission where people are still forced congregate and interact :ie Essential Food Shopping .
d]Dr Sam Yu ,[Resident Nanotechnology Specialist University of Canterbury ]article CHCH Press Fri27th March states ” Hong Kong a densely populated city of over 7.5 million people has only 167 case of covert 19 and 4 fatalities . “Compare that to up to 9000 deaths in Italy .We should rely on the science.
“The early and widespread distribution of face masks appears to have made a crucial difference in preventing and reducing community trans mission in both Hong Kong and Taiwan .”
e] There needs to be a TV campaign to explain .
1.where you can obtain corona proof masks
2.Which masks are effective or not .
3 How to correctly fit them .
4 How to handle them properly when removing to prevent contamination .
5.These need to be rationed and not left to ” Market Forces “to make sure every Kiwi gets at least one safe mask .
6.They need to remain affordable to all citizens.
Shopping now is the most dangerous thing we can do .
To consolidate the gains of lockdown we need to use facemasks to protect everyone when we congregate for essential shopping .The virus will hate this .We will further break the chain of transmission .
Jaccinda , the time for everyone to have and use a mask is now .
On the subject of China blaming Martyn is clearly wrong
https://m.chicagoreader.com/chicago/coronavirus-china-us-response/Content?oid=78757637
An informative read.
Going on a week since lockdown now, surely flu symptoms should be starting to show in people? I recently read that 15 million people have died in the world this year alone from various causes (which makes the Covid proportion of deaths a thousandth?). Who were these people? Did they have a good life? Did they reach their full potential?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/25/covid-19-is-natures-wake-up-call-to-complacent-civilisation
Wake-up Call.
In his forthcoming book, Our Final Warning, Mark Lynas explains what is likely to happen to our food supply with every extra degree of global heating. He finds that extreme danger kicks in somewhere between 3C and 4C above pre-industrial levels. At this point, a series of interlocking impacts threatens to send food production into a death spiral. Outdoor temperatures become too high for humans to tolerate, making subsistence farming impossible across Africa and South Asia. Livestock die from heat stress. Temperatures start to exceed the lethal thresholds for crop plants across much of the world, and major food producing regions turn into dust bowls. Simultaneous global harvest failure – something that has never happened in the modern world – becomes highly likely.
In combination with a rising human population, and the loss of irrigation water, soil and pollinators, this could push the world into structural famine. Even today, when the world has a total food surplus, hundreds of millions are malnourished as a result of the unequal distribution of wealth and power. A food deficit could result in billions starving. Hoarding will happen, as it always has, at the global level, as powerful people snatch food from the mouths of the poor. Yet, even if every nation keeps its promises under the Paris agreement, which currently seems unlikely, global heating will amount to between 3C and 4C.
Thanks to our illusion of security, we are doing almost nothing to anticipate this catastrophe, let alone prevent it.
This existential issue scarcely seems to impinge on our consciousness. Every food-producing sector claims that its own current practices are sustainable and don’t need to change. Sacred cows and holy lambs are everywhere, and the thinking required to develop the new food systems that we need is scarcely anywhere.
…. and there are specifics of the Pacific region…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOqCNvSZUOg
…. and the sense of urgency..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tw82woIZCNQ
I watched China invade Kenya in 1970 with wholesale takeover of the Afican markets around Kenyas biggest City to control all commerce then.
They almost destroyed the African store owners and retailers byflooding the shps they tookover to completely Monopolise commmerce to fence the City of Nairobi.
Most Africans lost their bussiness’s and incomes and extreme racial pressures developed there.
Finally several years later the Kenyan Government was forced to expel many Chinese because of the social unrest that developed from mass chinese bussiness takeovers there.
Just saying what I witnessed while working in frica during that time.
Sadly if we don’t watch out here for ‘social balance’, we may see the same thing happen here.
Where is the social unrest in NZ. Business have been taken over by offshore capital for decades.
No Govt should stand by and let this happen nor let cheap imported goods kill off local industry as has happened right across NZ.
We need a scale of social unrest that creates any havoc needed to reverse the take over that is happening.
Comments are closed.