It’s time to accept the enormity of the pandemic facing us

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
19
814

After yesterdays insane euphoria that Biden beating Sanders still doesn’t cure a virus settled in, the Dow plummeted again today down 969points.

All eyes will be on tomorrow’s market to see if the V shaped buy the dip investors get nuked.

One market analyst was suggesting based on the plummeting Bond market that the Dow was currently 40% over valued.

That’s quite an implosion.

Closer to home the panic buying, small businesses teetering on collapse and naked fury of just our 4th case of the virus are all pointing towards a grim reality.

If this is how the NZ is responding with just our 4th offical case, what happens if the pandemic gets lose and we have hundreds of thousands sick?

And the economic meltdown only keeps rolling on. China is trying to force its population back to work because the damage to their economy is enormous, but if work spaces get re-infected, they have to shut it down again. And this is a never ending cycle that won’t stop until there is a vaccine.

We won’t see a vaccine in 12-18 months.

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This can only get worse, only the most delusional optimist thinks that there is any other event other than a vaccine that will short circuit this crisis and restart the global economy.

As more and more people start to realise the enormity of what’s about the break lose, the faster the panic spreads, especially with social media.

We have to start being honest with the country, shit is going to hit the fan. We need a vastly superior plan NOW before the pandemic hits.

We’ve all watched in bewilderment the ministry of Health wobbles explaining with their messy mouthed words that they are following international best practise, but for an event this unique and this disaster invoking, perhaps best fucking intention practise isn’t good enough!

This case of the sick person coming back on the plane and only a few people being contacted was a jaw dropping example of how vacant the international best practise is.

CHECK EVERYONE ON THE PLANE!

When ordinary folk can see the enmity of the loop holes in our supposed response, people tend to panic.

We need to acknowledge that there is going to have to be a new normal for at least 18 months until the vaccines. This is a natural disaster and it’s worse than nor al natural disasters because it will keep erupting until we have  vaccination.

Most natural disasters subside, this one is with us for 18 months.

It’s time to start preparing for a unique one off generation event here.

Our black swan has come home to roost.

 

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19 COMMENTS

  1. Yes, a humble virus appears to be taking revenge on us humans, that when it all shakes out–have abused and overpopulated, and did I mention exploit, this planet.

    The comment Martyn made, I don’t know, maybe a week ago about the “just in time” global economic model is so apt. Holy shit we are running out of iPhones! (I like my iPhone, and iMac and iPad) but so what in an existential crisis like this.

    Local production of necessaries, eating local and seasonal, solar energy for all, and rain water collection, and desalination and carbon restocking measures, and restored public ownership of power generation and supply are all urgently needed now! Ooo the poor markets–time to ditch capitalism.

  3. Yeah well I’m extremely skeptical about claims that the 2020 financial meltdown is actually connected to covid-19.
    Remember all the finance & economic wonks had been saying through the last two quarters of 2019 that a major ‘correction’ worse than 2008 was due.
    The problem being that its causes were going to be exactly the same as 2008, an unregulated casino of greed, so that not only would it be likely that governments who tried to bail out their ‘donors’ would be immediately scuttled by the public, those governments would be forced to bring in and police controls on the finance sector.
    Lucky for them covid 19 happened eh!

    No one is paying attention to China any longer which has announced that production is already spinning up and it will be at 90% by the end of March (see “BNS data show that 78.9% of large and medium-sized businesses resumed operations last Tuesday and that figure is expected to drop to 90.8% by the end of March, he added” from https://www.en24.news/u/2020/03/in-china-economic-recovery-in-sight.html ). & 100% by mid April.

    The PRC has withstood the hit so there is no reason other countries couldn’t do the same – except that would be most inconvenient for our betters.

  4. Don’t pin all hope in a vaccine, animal coronavirus vaccines are not spectacularly efficacious, I don’t think we know yet whether Covid 19 has stimulated good immunity in recovered people, so hence don’t know if the virus can be made to stimulate good immunity as a vaccine. ( this varies for different viruses) there is no substitute for good hygiene and sensible quarantine.

  5. CHECK EVERYONE ON THE PLANE!

    And check every sick person on the cruise ships before anyone disembarks! Seven people were ill with the flu or stomach upsets on the cruise ship that arrived in Tauranga a few days ago. No further testing was done, the cruise line’s word was taken.

    It would be a matter of a few days only, 2-3 days to thoroughly test those passengers with any flu-like symptoms, by our NZ medics. A small thing to ask, for the safety of many.

    • If those with the virus dont show symptoms until up to 24 days, then testing when they get off the plane is problematic …to say the least

      I know of one young NZer who last week came back from Sydney on a flight choker full of South Koreans and was sitting next to a Malaysian with a face mask who could not speak English and did not have a NZ passport or residency ( the Ozzie next to her requested to be re-seated but the NZer stoically sat next to the face mask all through the flight)….how many of these non NZers are hunting for a medical safe haven and refuge?….and will report to NZ hospitals in the next few weeks with the virus ? …and what of the young NZer and her family?

  6. I think there is a real chance this could precipitate the GFC mark II that has been waiting to happen as bubbles have been building again not just stock market but real estate again.
    China has also been wobbling before this hit, its hard not to see major economic consequence for the world economy as tourism, air industries and Chinese industry all shut down.

  7. War of the Worlds ending speech :

    …” From the moment the invaders arrived, breathed our air, ate and drank, they were doomed. They were undone, destroyed, after all of man’s weapons and devices had failed, by the tiniest creatures that God in his wisdom put upon this earth. By the toll of a billion deaths, man had earned his immunity, his right to survive among this planet’s infinite organisms. And that right is ours against all challenges. For neither do men live nor die in vain ” …

    ———————————

    by Ubjon » Sep 30, 2010 6:37 pm

    … ” So basically they are saying that God put lethal bacteria on the world to kill humans in their billions so that we could ‘earn’ the right to survive after being made without our consent by that very same God? I’ve heard this countless times but its only now that I’ve actually stopped and thought about its meaning that I’ve realised how unpleasant it really is ” …

    Some interesting perspectives.

    But this is the arrogance of ‘aristocratic ‘ humanity. They never saw this coming and if they did, – didn’t give a rats shit. To them? ,… it was, … ” just another dollar before the apocalypse , please”…

    This,… element of human slime,… who dictate to us and who fill the halls of power in every nation before us… should we anymore trust their worth when they have failed us so many multitudinous times before? Does their underlying psychopathy ever change from the slaughter of your sons and daughters in the the trenches of WW1 , to dealing deceitfully with a new pandemic on the horizon that will kill tens of thousands?

    The question you need to ask is this : Do they care anymore for YOU and your children now than they did for the millions of lives they LITERALLY threw away during 1914 to 1918 to serve THEIR purposes , NOT yours?

    I think you will find,… that NO they do NOT.

  8. Vaccination can only be part of an alternative response.

    Note. Human genetic set-up interacts with the environment.

    … In none of 2-3 dozen of countries (in Europe, Asia, Africa, Pacific) I have been working over the past 20 years, the existing Early Warning Systems and general Community Disaster Preparedness had sufficient capacity to cope with ‘system-immanent’ disaster, calamity that develops as part of changing (capitalized) livelihood/lifestyle conditions, environmental destruction, damage to ecological balances, elimination of bio-diversity, human population growth, climate change.

    It would be a surprise if the situation in NZ is fundamentally different.

    Early Warning Systems and Community Disaster Management.

    The coalition’s envisaged major investment in infrastructure would be most useful if it targets this segment of public safety as a national priority.

    … A most meaningful theme for the upcoming election, too?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUaa-kg7pLM
    The Environment and Human Health

    PS.
    We could use a more suitable indicator than the Dow-Jones Index, or not?

  9. This statement is significant regarding the fourth confirmed case.

    “A man who tested positive for coronavirus attended the Tool concert at Spark Arena in Auckland last Friday when he may have been infectious, the Ministry of Health says”

    This statement from the wife who was the second confirmed case on Wednesday.

    “”People assume we are these monsters that have all these symptoms out in public infecting people. We’ve had very, very, very few symptoms,” the Auckland mother told Stuff on Thursday”

    UK doctors are saying people who have the virus but are not yet displaying symptoms (presymptomatic) are clearly infecting others. This 100% contradicts the cornerstone of the Ministry of Health’s categorical advice that only people showing symptoms of the virus can infect others. Imagine the carnage if they have got that totally wrong.

    I’m incredulous at the fact people who have arrived in from virus hotspot Northern Italy and are showing very very very few symptoms would put so many New Zealanders in potential danger by taking two connecting domestic flights and going to a concert attended by thousands. How could our Ministry of Health allow this to occur? Not even the farcical “self-isolation”.

    The actions of all involved range from selfishness to incompetence. It’s exposed just how ineffective our defence actually is. Getting straight answers from Dr Ashley Bloomfield is like trying to nail jelly to a wall. No wonder people are getting frustrated and angry. How can you have confidence in this process?

    Ironically, Bloomfield is happy to call out “keyboard warriors” who have the audacity to be frustrated and angry at our limp noodle defence that allows people to gamble with our health and for others who refuse to take anyone else into consideration other than themselves or are incapable of exercising a bit of common sense.

    Defence is only as good as it’s weakest link.

    • Yes, how well is the “self isolation” working if you are going to a concert, probably the single worst thing an individual could do if infected.

  10. Reading some of the comments I feel that some are glad of the oppetunity to see the decline of businesses around the world. if that happened what is their plan to support our 1st world education and health system and way of life. These would be the same people who think a 16yr old has the answers to solve the climate issue.

  11. Intending to handle compost in the near future I went to the protective mask section of the local B store: almost completely empty other than a high priced ($300) ‘professional’ mask and some cheap ($3) masks. Fortunately an assistant was around at the time and he advised me that the $3 masks were only suitable for blocking coarse particles and climbed to the top of the shelving and got down the last 2 boxes of reasonably priced but effective masks. I guess the last box was sold shortly after I left. From what was said, I guess the supply lines have dried up.

    How long before other items in our just-in-time delivery system become unavailable?

  12. Thank Christ I have a free hold house in the country. All I need now is a moat and some crocodiles. Anyone got any crocodiles they could let me graze?
    Since people are now getting sick here it’s too late for a brave, common sense approach.
    It’s times like this that our politicians must be prepared to be wrong when a decision focused on a worst case scenario is inevitable. And it’s up to us to forgive them for that if they’re wrong.
    The problem, however, is that today’s freaky, freaky world is all about the money. And money just doesn’t give a fuck, therefore, based on that calculation we shouldn’t give a fuck about Wall St and it’s psychopathic pursuit of the egomaniacal gathering of dollars.
    When this kind of event occurs all bets are off and an entirely different approach is needed. We will need food primarily then we need medicines.
    Banking, and their fake, high wankery will be as irrelevant as it’s always been.

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