2020 the year of climate crisis recession, the chance for economic Tino rangatiratanga and what most reviews of the last decade missed

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2020 may be the first year of the climate crisis cresting the economy.

Free market neoliberal capitalism believes in endless economic growth constrained by nothing more than the obscenity of Government regulation.

Their mystic belief and religious zealotry towards free market mantra are as arcane as medieval Christianity.

That’s why the climate crisis has always been the achilles heal of capitalism.

At some stage, you run out of the biosphere’s capacity to fuel never ending growth.

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2020 may be the first year where the tipping points of escalating real time catastrophic climate change starts impeding economic growth.

We may have just reached peak Capitalism.

The Australian bush fires that impacted half the entire population of Australia, followed by devastating flash floods.

The Wuhan virus which is rapidly becoming a pandemic is a symptom of the climate crisis as cheek to jowl overpopulation extends deeper and deeper into old environments reigniting virus cross overs. Pandemics impact the economy and the Wuhan Virus is just the beginning of these becoming regular events.

Antarctica measured 18 degrees last week.

The extreme drought event we in NZ are facing in real time is the future we will increasingly face.

How’s that climate crisis denial working out for you?

We are seeing in real time environmental tipping points that once crossed can’t return and this will impact the economy because the economy is not factoring in the inability to rebuild in time from one catastrophic climate crisis event to another.

Look at this graph.

That graph is exploding upwards.

The economy is going to start reflecting that reality once the impacts can’t be ignored any longer.

We are going to need to adapt, rapidly and radically.

The 30 year neoliberal experiment in society, politics and economy has failed and we will require a new blueprint with completely different values.

This will need to be a time of economic Tino Rangatiratanga, where the economy is focused first and foremost on New Zealanders rather than our trading partners.

Economic nationalism and a protectionist model with a view to self-sufficiency is a must in this new age of late stage capitalist entropy…

How NZ would fare during a world catastrophe

Professor Nick Wilson from the University of Otago’s Department of Public Health co-authored those studies with Boyd, including last year’s The Prioritisation of Island Nations as Refuges from Extreme Pandemics.

“We’re concerned about the increasing risk of pandemics, and those could include a natural pandemic, like a repeat of the 1918 influenza pandemic,” he says.

“But more concerning is the rapid advance with biotechnology which allows for various states or even terrorists to potentially in the future produce genetically-engineered pandemics.”

They looked at what countries, in particular island nations, might be the best prepared, and be able to survive to be refuges for humanity in such a catastrophe.

Nations were ranked according to factors including food and energy production, population size, social cohesion and isolation from other population centres.

“Australia, then New Zealand, and then Iceland came out as the best island nations to rapidly close their borders and to potentially be areas where humanity could survive,” Wilson says.

“New Zealand certainly has the potential to be the best place to be if we play our cards right,” Boyd says.

…we need to radically adapt New Zealand for that preparation now.

We need to stop thinking of ourselves as a country, that mindset allows us to believe there are vast layers of regulation above us that protects us and allows us to be passive in the belief someone else will engage.

We need to see ourselves as Islands where we must salvage and be self sufficient and present all the time.

The never ending growth model was a always a lie, and the refusal to accept what is happening to the climate is no longer a science issue, it is a cultural issue.

This is the scab of self interested lies that needs to be ripped off the soul of New Zealand without mercy.

There is empowerment in engaging with that new idea of economic, political and cultural Tino Rangatiratanga but it can only occur when mass consciousness reaches the panic point of action.

What most of the reviews of the last decade missed was the legacy of not allowing the economy to collapse in 2008. By propping up the rigged casino of Wall Street with Trillions of dollars of quantitive easing, stock markets and assets prices exploded in overvaluation while falsely manufacturing an economic environment that created the lowest interest rates the world has seen in 5,000 years.

Central Banks have no more room to move when the climate crisis events cascade and trigger economic implosions.

It’s a Great Depression compounded by catastrophic climate events compounded by failed states causing mass refugee pressures.

It’s time to start thinking about New Zealand as a lifeboat and respecting it as such.

17 COMMENTS

    • A state owned and operated Insurance company is sorely needed.
      It wont absorb the claims ahead but at least will not be paying out to parasitic capitalist offshore investors.

  1. Hard to believe our government is allowing this short term destruction that is condemned internationally as well as locally! More fuck over the environment and next generation for short term international profits for people that don’t live here!

    NZ govt accused of proposing “shameful” new fishing rules
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/119342254/nz-govt-accused-of-proposing-shameful-new-fishing-rules?fbclid=IwAR31N38sN-o6rh49azYwxPrlOGh40zvLRm4IDVCPAj3vZWbiF_VgHi7k9IA

    Goodbye Maui Dolphins too! The NZ government can’t be arsed protecting them if it means pushing trawlers out a bit further! (Might also help our depleting fish stocks too!) Can’t do that some multinational in a tax haven will be annoyed!)

    Remember this, they might as well tell international poaches to come to NZ and rape and pillage, even when caught our government does nothing and then ask OZ what to do, they are so incapable of protecting NZ from criminal activity.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=11389289

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/newzealand/11346930/Toothfish-pirates-in-stand-off-with-New-Zealand-warship.html

    Also Fairly Terns won’t make it. We can thank our government for making another species extinct while turning a blind eye to billionaires directing public water ways for their golf greens.

    “The impact of an illegally-constructed dam has been described by the Environment Court as “critical” for New Zealand’s most endangered bird but its removal will be a slow process, with the company which built it unlawfully setting most of the terms.”
    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2019/12/19/953508/dam-delays-half-soon-half-later-maybe

    Roading projects could lock in emissions for decades

    Analysis: $5.3 billion for new roads could lead to 21 million tonnes of emissions over the next 50 years.
    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/@greenroom/2020/01/31/1009144/new-roading-projects-could-lock-in-emissions-for-decades

    It seems the environment is more a nuclear free fall moment for this generation and our government!

    Who cares, wait for someone else to do something! (Was there anything in the first 100 days from this government for the environment? )

    Natz are worse, but despicable and hopeless are two words to describe all NZ leaders in government over the past 30 years on environmental issues!

  2. Capitalism’s time is well up. The PR spinners and brute force of the 1%ers and their enablers, will not escape the consequences that have been coming since the industrial age. A major problem is that yes, Neo Liberalism has failed big time, but it retains strong hegemony and the hyper individualist “dog eat dog” psychology has a lot of New Zealanders in its thrall. Example: in Whangarei recently, residents of Maunu suburb raised $60,000 to fund opposing plans for 37 new state houses because they were concerned about THEIR property values rather than housing the homeless. Ultimately independent commissioners approved the development. I was one of six submitters in favour of housing fellow Northland citizens, and there were 242 against!

    Big changes will have to be made to NZ’s “Tale of two cities” reality. If the shit hits the proverbial before neo liberalism has been buried many kiwis will turn on each other before they adopt co-operative methods. Not saying it cannot be done but it will not be easy getting some to share their farms, boats, and life style blocks!

    Schools should teach all kids growing and preserving food, water collection, solar energy and basic construction etc. in the curriculum. Community service in a national civil defence/public works force should be required for all citizens etc. Does society crash into Mad Max/Bladerunner scenarios or do we go socialist and take control of the new world? That is why isolation is not an absolute solution, or particularly possible with our huge coastline, because other surviving clusters of people will be facing similar challenges.

  3. As the neoliberals develop NZ too quickly for their low wage economy, offshore owned, mass immigration experiment, more and more infrastructure problems are occurring and our pathetic private PPP subcontractor ways and deregulated construction industry with deregulated materials even when fixing the problem, often fails after the fixes too. So it’s a never ending cycle of misuse, environmental destruction, unaccountability and money to the construction industry!

    Waihi runs out of water, council distributing water bottles
    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/02/waihi-runs-out-of-water-council-distributing-water-bottles.html

    Sewage in Wellington marine reserve 43-times worse than acceptable levels
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/118890119/sewage-in-wellington-marine-reserve-43times-worse-than-acceptable-levels

    Wellington road closed for two months amid waste pipe repair
    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/wellington-road-closed-two-months-amid-waste-pipe-repair

    Work on burst Taupō waste pipe begins
    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/393896/work-on-burst-taupo-waste-pipe-begins

    When it comes to rangatiratanga, it seems that not only did the neoliberals shit on that with State Owned Enterprises and Council Controlled Organisations that are not accountable at all to Maori or Pakeha, (think (New Zealand Maori Council v Attorney-General[4]) in 1987) but now we find out that the top three countries by net “investment” (sales in plain English) in 2019 were China Canada and Singapore… so going forward how can there be rangatiratanga when locals don’t own land and assets anymore and international corporations and courts are now more powerful and more influential in government thinking than the founding legal documents of the treaty?

    The treaty is therefore increasingly ceremonial and meaningless when water can be given away to private individuals to be sold offshore, especially ludicrous when increasingly there are major droughts and issues for Maori and Pakeha who are supposed to be protected under the treaty as are NZ natural assets but find the aquifer is drained bare and the public pipes don’t work anymore under the strain of millions of tourists and non nationals who live here now and all need to drink and shower and shit but somehow the responsibility of that, falls on the citizens not private individuals who are bringing them in, stamping the visas and profiting as more and more infrastructure doesn’t work.

    I wonder if the Waih council is distributing water bottles from Chinese company Nongfu Springs!

    Clearly single use plastic water bottles don’t count in the single use plastic bag ban!

    No wonder Mayors of councils are popular targets for Chinese businessmen to take to China on free trips!

    • Hear, here! Maori have little or no say in the Governance and Policy settings in Aotearoa.

      Tokenism and usurped-ness. Those elitist entities, “Iwi” juggernauts are facade and are neoliberal brown trucks loaded with debt and some valuable assets debt ridden with a combined value of $43b. Less than 1% of that gets to trickle down to the people.

      I really do admire the Yellow Vests movement in France.

  4. Residents and iwi have no say, how is that rangatiratanga!

    “In a split decision, the Environment Court has dismissed iwi and residents’ appeals against the proposed expansion of the water bottling plant at Otakiri, in the Bay of Plenty.

    The expansion has been vehemently opposed by both iwi and community groups since consent was granted by the Bay of Plenty Regional Council and the Whakatāne District Council.”

  5. One weakness of the Belt and Road global supply chain is now known – this pandemic will cause a global recession.

    But the more serious problem is that our hospitals barely cope with beds for winter flu patients (wards understaffed) and staff cannot be vaccinated for the new virus – so would soon have their ranks decimated meaning our hospitals would cease to function (people will die in their homes of either flu, other medical conditions left untreated, or this virus as they already are in China). And we know even infected young staff who continue to work with infected patients can die because of exhaustion (MD whistleblower in China). The only way for the system to cope is to schedule the infection of staff and give them rest and treatment and then when immune they are ready for the later mass infection of the public – but who would dare apply this option?

    And peak capitalism only survived via socialisation of losses and QE. And with OCR of 1% we have no room to move and will have to look at QE (just openly issue money to government – lower the dollar, and gain in GST revenue on imports). But post QE how will the renewed peak capitalism/northern banks cope with this pandemic recession? Once the supply chain is back up and running recession may continue because of another banking failure.

    And then there is the issue of future proofing the economy, investing for the future of transport, not the past, and probably greater state involvement in insurance risk/water supply (why are we exporting water?).

    For some time we have used immigration for guarantee growth and resolve the demographics of baby boomer retirement (make it more affordable) but it past time to ease off this (more temporary workers when required and less permanent residents). A higher MW and living wages are a start to directing business to become more productive (invest in tech to reduce labour supply need – especially factory sourced building).

  6. Martyn I haven’t seen a better summary of NZs situation.

    Free market neoliberal capitalism believes in endless economic growth constrained by nothing more than the obscenity of Government regulation.
    Their mystic belief and religious zealotry towards free market mantra are as arcane as medieval Christianity.

  7. We need urgent action and a plan too implement it.

    The scary thing is that no one in the current parliament can or will deliver it.

    They are all wedded to the neoliberal market forces framework , there are too many vested interests guarding their wealth and incomes.

    By the time they work out a plan too CASH IN on the crisis it will be too late.

    DELAY DELAY procrastinate.

    The sadness is that Jacinda has spent her political capital when she said climate change was this generations nuclear free moment and then got too the ninth floor and released the stupidity of what she had said.

    I have ZERO confidence in my country doing anything meaningful too prepare for this , it is not in our psyche too urgently do anything and as usual we will wait for the catastrophe too strike and the think about how we will respond.

    She’l be right still pervades our approach too everything.

  8. So how is voting for parties that support climate unfriendly trade deals like the CP-TPP and RCEP going to help matters? Its one thing to complain but then voting for more of the same makes not sense to me and yet I hear a lot of people on this site and others saying that’s exactly what they plan to do.

    I deeply dislike most politicians in NZ but I’ve no time for voters who won’t take a risk on new parties either. Indeed its a bigger risk I feel by supporting neo liberal parties that seem unwilling to accept the increasingly dangerous failure that capitalism represents.

  9. It aint neo-liberalism, its liberalism too behind private property rights.
    No capitalist govt will do anything about selling land as it challenges the basic assumption behind a ‘property owning’ democracy.
    Read that as white settler state built on stolen land because that is what is demanded by the capitalist market.
    Fear of foreign ownership is just white settler angst that the land they stole or inherited as their ‘private property’ is being sold off to nonwhite people from other lands – horrors, the irony.
    It doesn’t matter what nationality, colour or religion people who buy land in NZ are, they are all using their private ownership to exploit the landless and screw profits out of them.
    Begging for the landowners state to convert land into ‘leasehold’ doesnt change anything.
    In China the state owns the land. Leasing the land is sufficient to amount to property rights and create the security of tenure capitalists need to extract and profits of it. High country runs ditto.
    What we need is for the exploited masses to reclaim their ‘back wages’ expropriated over centuries (ARD Fairburn) socialising the land for communal use to produce what they need.
    Capitalism is coming to an end as it kills off the nature it needs to live.
    We have to end it and take control of our future or end up extinct.

  10. So we have unprecedented droughts, temperatures well above the usual, and Kiwi battlers and so carry on driving fossil fuel powered cars as if nothing has happened. Politicians talk about ‘growth’ and infrastructure development, mostly building more roads. They are on a global human suicide mission, it seems.

  11. Although planetary meltdown gets the most attention (and nowhere near enough, I might add), Industrial Civilisation is in the process of destroying the biological base that makes life-as-we-know it possible.

    The insect apocalypse rarely gets a mention but our ‘friends’ at the Guardian do highlight this life-threatening matter, and the latest report mirrors the 80% decline reported in Germany several months ago:

    ‘Two scientific studies of the number of insects splattered by cars have revealed a huge decline in abundance at European sites in two decades.

    The research adds to growing evidence of what some scientists have called an “insect apocalypse”, which is threatening a collapse in the natural world that sustains humans and all life on Earth. A third study shows plummeting numbers of aquatic insects in streams.

    The survey of insects hitting car windscreens in rural Denmark used data collected every summer from 1997 to 2017 and found an 80% decline in abundance. It also found a parallel decline in the number of swallows and martins, birds that live on insects.

    The second survey, in the UK county of Kent in 2019, examined splats in a grid placed over car registration plates, known as a “splatometer”. This revealed 50% fewer impacts than in 2004. The research included vintage cars up to 70 years old to see if their less aerodynamic shape meant they killed more bugs, but it found that modern cars actually hit slightly more insects.
    “This difference we found is critically important, because it mirrors the patterns of decline which are being reported widely elsewhere, and insects are absolutely fundamental to food webs and the existence of life on Earth,” said Paul Tinsley-Marshall from Kent Wildlife Trust. “It’s pretty horrendous.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/12/car-splatometer-tests-reveal-huge-decline-number-insects

    Meanwhile:

    ‘Last month was the hottest January on record over the world’s land and ocean surfaces, with average temperatures exceeding anything in the 141 years of data held by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

    Antarctic temperature rises above 20C for first time on record
    Read more

    The record temperatures in January follow an exceptionally warm 2019, which has been ranked as the second hottest year for the planet’s surface since reliable measurements started. The past five years and the past decade are the hottest in 150 years of record-keeping, an indication of the gathering pace of the climate crisis.
    According to Noaa, the average global land and ocean surface temperature last month was 2.5F (or 1.14C) above the 20th-century average. This measurement marginally surpassed the previous January record, set in 2016.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/13/january-hottest-earth-record-climate-crisis

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