The political recalculation to make from the brilliant Cannabis Referendum blindside & National’s flawed 42 joints attack

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6 months ago the Cannabis referendum looked like it would die before it could be harvested.

Those who were pro reform felt let down and betrayed by the referendum not being binding and with no clarity over what was actually being voted on, I believe the recorded dip in Poll support for cannabis reform was because those who had been waiting for it were angry and had given up in disappointment.

Well, they can all feel an enormous win with what the Government have produced as a referendum question as announced last week.

By blindsiding opponents with a clean cut legalised and regulated market option,  the Government has drawn a clear line in the sand about how far reaching reform will actually go and it has so shaken the establishment that National have been left high and dry with their ’42 joints per day’ attack line.

On one hand National have given up on the prohibition as status quo because their argument is now all about quantum. Their argument is no longer ‘cannabis is evil and must be banned’, it’s now, ’42 joints per day is too much’.

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If 42 joints per day is too much, how about 21 joints?

National have abandoned their prohibition position immediately in the face of a determined Government and risk losing almost the entire vote of anyone under 40, additionally by trumpeting the ’42 joints per day’ attack line they have managed to sell the referendum to those who were questioning the sincerity of Labour’s lacklustre performance to date on cannabis reform.

By screaming ’42 joints per day’ even the most jaded cannabis supporter believes they will be able to walk into a store and buy 42 joints in a day.

National were always in danger of being left behind on this issue if the Government ever took the legalisation of cannabis seriously. This will hurt National at the Polls but it also has enormous implications for the rest of the political spectrum.

POLITICAL WINNERS

Greens – This referendum is an enormous win for the Greens, if played well, Chloe Swarbrick can not only lead the Greens away from the fear of dropping below 5%, she can also build her own mana to argue why she should be the new co-leader of the Greens post the 2020 election, if not before.

Labour – Can bask in the reflective glory of the Greens win on this issue without getting blamed for it by older more conservative voters.

Conservative Party & Vision NZ – For the socially conservative political spectrum, this is the perfect issue to paint the looming apocalypse of the Godless. National won’t be able to go as far as these parties will and they will be calling for the referendum to die.

POLITICAL LOSERS 

National – It’s now a total losing issue for National. If they come out hard against it they remind their urban voters they are socially conservative and if they debate the issue based on 42 joints, the argument for prohibition falls over altogether. It would be smarter now for National to quietly walk away from the entire referendum and not mention it once.

NZ First – They are the ones who demanded it be a referendum issue and can’t bitch about it if it passes. They can’t play to their conservative base because it’s the people’s will that decides it. Effectively NZ First have snookered themselves.

TOP – Their big point of difference was that they were openly in favour of a regulated market which the Greens wouldn’t commit to publicly until the referendum question was announced, now it’s been announced TOP have no reason to exist on this issue.

Sustainable NZ – They have been set up as a spoiler to drag the Greens under 5%, the success of this issue for the Greens however will make that almost impossible. With no chance of Sustainable NZ getting over 5% and with no ability to drag Greens under 5%, the entire purpose of this party no longer exists.

I firmly believe that not only will this cannabis referendum pass, but the Greens will be re-elected to Parliament with a larger mandate.

The Greens owe Chloe Swarbrick.

10 COMMENTS

  1. Now if the Greens can just ditch the neoliberal economic policy and other navel gazing noun projects, perhaps voters on the left will be able to vote for them again.

  2. 42 joints a day…? Where the Hell did the Greedy Idiot Party AKA The Natzo GIP’s get their 42 joints a day from?
    42 Joints a day! Jesus! Fine, if all you need to do is lie flat on your back and watch clouds all day while someone comes by now and then with a sprayer to lubricate your eye balls.
    Good ol’ Pot aye? A wondrous plant if for no other reason than to show us all just how intellecshully and emotionally stunted the National Party and it’s ardent followers literally are.
    But worse and perhaps most worryingly, they keep insisting we join them in their quest to remain the dumbest and stupidest of the dumb and stupid in AO/NZ politics.
    paula bennett. OMG. She looks like an evil turd peering out a ghosts arsehole.

  3. What Im not happy with, is this soon to be announced Medical Cannabis scheme isnt including home grow while recreational use is. When you consider the level of discrimination against disabled people in this country, its not like many of us can afford medicinal cannabis products so growing our own becomes the only option to access this drug.
    And then, we still have to wait for them to get the whole scheme up and running which isnt until sometime next year.
    The referendum option rules on the table are out of balance with alcohol, if alcohol is causing 3 times more harm to society than cannabis then the cannabis laws have to equal alcohol or be less if you want fair laws and regulations, these clowns are still in the prohibition mindset where treating cannabis so drastically compared to a more harmful drug is something you could get away with due to legality, when it becomes legal such laws should be proportionate to the harm they cause.
    And I sincerely hope the information to be used at the election IS accurate.

    • If you got a legit disability you can pretty much grow a couple now and the cops will whistle the other way unless you have made a dick of yourself

  4. Turnout may be boosted in 2020 also by the presence of the Cannabis Referendum in the General Election, which has to be a positive thing in terms of encouraging some alienated or never voters to participate.

    Good summary Martyn, in the major player category, both Nats and NZ First have been significantly neutralised because of Chloe’s attention to detail.

  5. Why aren’t National arguing to limit alcohol purchases to 1 and a half beers per day?

    I did the math and to be consistent this should be their view.

  6. The farming industry should be pushing for legalisation as well. Even if they don’t want to grow marijuana, if it is legalised, they will finally be able to grow hemp without all the hassle it presently involveds

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