Talk to Labour MPs privately and you see how nervous they are.
Their ‘transformative’ Government has been everything but. Sure there have been some policy wins, but scratch below the surface and those wins look very shallow.
Jacinda promised transformative Government, we got a chrysalis.
One day it might be a butterfly, but right now it’s a sack of juices that doesn’t fly.
This lack of enthusiasm and grumbling is being heard by Labour MPs as they travel around the country and they have run out of excuses to hand out.
This Government didn’t expect to win so had no plan when they did. They didn’t have a plan to purge the public service of right wing acolytes and fund it to be service providers as opposed to service managers so the most vulnerable haven’t seen any change to the toxic environments that make state agencies so deeply counter productive.
This creeping cynicism means that when Labour call for the poor to support them again next year, all Jacinda has to offer is ‘we won’t be as mean as National’.
Is that enough to get those beneficiaries queueing at 2am outside WINZ and the 14000 waiting for social housing to the polls?
On the big issues this Government have also disappointed its base. No Capital Gains Tax, no real labour law reforms, Kiwibuild fiasco, not visiting Ihumatao and a Carbon Zero law that won’t do anything about climate change until 2050 all combine to highlight a Government ill prepared to govern.
Likewise for the right, National supporting Gun laws and Zero Carbon have also angered core voting blocks.
Next year I think that sense of frustration and disappointment will make this a protest vote election.
Labour is disappointing its base with a lack of transformative change.
The Greens woke identity politics is painfully alienating.
National keeps angering their voting base with consensus politics and weak leadership.
The problem with NZ is that underfunding due to the 30 year neoliberal experiment has led to enormous generational problems to overcome and consensus policy making waters down any of the solutions into meaningless bullshit. Voters get angrier and angrier with the solutions offered because the solutions don’t solve anything.
I think this protest vote will spill different ways and benefit different parties.
ACT – Their pandering to gun nuts has paid dividends now the Government have over reached with abrasive new gun laws that allow police far too much unchecked power and we will see that combine with ACTs staunch Free Speech position to possibly hand ACT 3 MPs. Will draw male voters off National and Gun nuts.
TOP – Has attacked the ridiculous Zero Carbon Bill for the joke it is and offers far more radical reform on taxation and cannabis than anyone else. Will appeal to National urban voters as National leans harder into social conservatism.
Sustainability Party – For those alienated by the Greens, will take just enough way from them to sink the Greens under the 5% threshold. Will also take some from National but seeing as they won’t get over 5%, that vote will get recycled in part back to National.
NZ First – If Shane Jones takes a hard line on immigration, expect to see NZ First in double digit figures particularly from older NZers.
Māori Party – As Labour continue to make Willie Jackson’s job of winning all the electorates back for Labour harder and harder by giving him crumbs to show for their loyalty, the Māori Party could pick up one electorate seat and bring in an MP from their Party vote as well.
If 2020 becomes a protest vote year, expect to see a Parliamentary overhang and at least 4 Parties to form a Government.