With a general election looming in the next year or so, ensuring that people exercise their democratic rights at the ballot box is of critical importance. Historically, voter turnout in New Zealand stands above the levels seen in similar countries, with a full 85% of adults voting in the 2014 General Election, New Zealand was able to boast a turnout that dwarfs the levels of engagement seen in countries such as the UK, US, and Germany, for example. Australia, meanwhile, enjoys greater levels of voter engagement than New Zealand, with figures regularly surpassing 90%. This is largely related to the fact that voting is mandatory for all Australians, and a failure to show up at the ballot box can be punished with a fine. While we don’t have the same laws in New Zealand (although voter registration has been mandatory for years), one could argue that the county’s recent turnout figures are a cause for celebration and a sign of a thriving democracy in action.
However, nothing should be taken for granted. The high levels of engagement seen in 2014 are by no means guaranteed to be replicated in the next election, as previous elections and referenda with much lower turnout levels have demonstrated. It’s worth considering what issues actually prompt New Zealanders up off their sofas and down to the voting booth. Only by understanding this, will future campaigners be able to mobilize the vote for the issues they care about.
An effective way to examine the issues and framings of issues that drive voters to the polls is to look at New Zealand’s long history of referenda. The country has held dozens in its history, to the extent where it is widely considered to be a country that is much keener on plebiscites than the rest of the world. Turnout is historically very high, and the results are very often decisive, with the winning result almost invariably won by a vast majority.
One of the earliest referendums was the 1949 referendum on betting, in which voters were asked whether to legalize betting on horse races. The result was a decisive 68% in favor, following an energetic Yes campaign that involved thousands of people. The vote is considered to have opened up floodgates for New Zealand’s liberal gambling legislation, which still enjoys widespread support today. Nowadays, the focus on gambling in New Zealand has moved away from the racing track and towards the digital realm, with dozens of online slots and casino game vendors now operating in the country. The variety and the wide popularity of options to play online shows that liberal gambling laws are a (perhaps surprising) issue that voters care about.
This isn’t the only example of a referendum illustrating the hot-button issues that mobilize voters. The 1997 referendum to make retirement savings schemes compulsory was defeated by an unprecedented 91.8% ‘No’ vote, which sent a strong message to politicians that pensions and pensioner care are at the top of the list for voter priorities. However, the willingness of politicians to overlook such messages risks imperiling democratic participation in the future. One particularly disappointing example is the 2013 asset sales referendum, in which the public was asked whether the government should be allowed to partially privatize the big four state-owned energy companies. Despite more than 3 million voters turning up on polling day to deliver a resounding ‘No’ vote, the government ignored the result of the referendum, declaring that their victory in the recent general election was proof that they had a mandate to push ahead with the sale. However, privatization of the utility sector was not on the ballot during that election, leaving some voters doubting how much their vote really counts.
The Future Impact of Voting
Whilst the government’s blasé response to the result clearly didn’t have a negative impact on engagement during the General Election the following year, it’s clear that New Zealand’s faith in referenda was shaken. The next time a plebiscite was held, this time to change the national flag, voter turnout numbers were among the lowest in modern history, with just under 2 million people showing up to the polls. Of course, this turnout was also reflective of the fact that republicanism is simply not a priority for voters, and hasn’t been for a very long time. Politicians have staked their careers on this issue and have had to step out of politics because of their misjudgment. Even former PM John Key still suffers from a tainted legacy for the amount of time, energy, and resources his government poured into the flag debate.
So what will animate voters in the next general election, due to take place within a year? The history of referenda shows that the public historically prefers as little government interference in their lives as possible. But recently emerged issues have changed the tone, with polls suggesting that the public expects the government to intervene strongly in a number of areas largely concerning social issues. The first of these by a wide margin is the cost-of-living crisis. New Zealanders rank housing and transport costs as the most important issues facing the country and expect the government to do more to expand infrastructure and build hundreds of thousands of new homes, particularly around Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch.
Other issues of major concern include security and safety, given the tragic events of the past year. New Zealanders also rank healthcare as a top priority, a fact that has not changed since polling was first conducted in the country over a century ago. How candidates frame these issues in a way that speaks to the public’s concerns and anxieties will be crucial for ensuring high levels of democratic participation. It has been a turbulent few years for NZ, so the stakes will certainly be high. Those who try to hone in on fringe issues to capture a decent vote share will likely be disappointed in the next election, given the unanimity New Zealanders share on so many issues.
