Winston’s power has always been as kingmaker, but can he carry that off if the electorate all believe he will side with Labour?
At 4% they are out, but NZ First always underpolls so they are almost assured of getting over 5%, but cutting a deal with Labour before the election would surprise voters, lock in loyalty around Winston, promote some big vision ideas and convince voters that NZ First will be the effective brake-peddle to the Governments more cosmopolitan inclinations.
If Labour stood aside their candidate in Northland allowing Jones to run, NZ First gain an electorate in the very provinces they need to build into for the future.
Imagine Winston and Jacinda jointly announcing the decision and taking back the agenda with a joint promise on a big vision project if re-elected.
Simon Bridges will be getting counselled to dump Winston altogether pre-election, a pre-emptive move would throw National off balance.
Yep true that is Martyn.
Winston is the consummate strategist and will wipe “No Bridges” Simon off the electoral map.
I never believe the “political polls” anyway as they are as bad at forecasting political weather as the Met office is at forecasting our weather. I write this as I look out my window at the driving heavy rain that has fallen since midnight in Osborne and RNZ this morning was forecasting a “fine day for Gisborne”!!!!!!
I rest my case.
Martyn … you have it about half right except you picked the wrong electorate. If Labour is serious then the will cut Jones a deal in Te Tai Tokelau and have Davis go list only. The good sheeple of TTT will see Jones as the prodigal son returning to his roots ans vote accordingly.
Jones has zip zero chance in Northland where Matt King is now too well entrenched with a burgeoning membership and an established presence in an electorate where NZF closed down their Kerikeri office. Add to that the polling that shows Jones is an anathema to female voter and his abject failure to stand up for Northland with the decision by the CoL to can the Wellsford to Whangarei link highway and Jones won’t come within cooee of what Peters got when he lost the seat.
Jones in TTT … different result.
Shane Jones is an awful high price to pay to retain power. Too high a price!
Far better Labour took a long hard look at themselves and honoured some of their big promises or at least get some progress on them underway with extreme urgency, then such sheer desperation may not be needed!
You do understand that a third of NZFirst voters want NZFirst to go with National don’t you. What exactly are you playing at?
The Assault rifle middle finger to the PM was the last straw for me. What is his game? He’s about as reliable as a Rolex from a 2 dollar shop.
After so many other questionable actions, the vote for me or I won’t hand out taxpayer money crap being one of many, he is either a loose or in the very least a who gives a shit cannon.
XRay it wasn’t an assault rifle, they are illegal in Thailand just as they have always been here (except for a few highly vetted collectors who can still keep them legally). Jones was firing a semi auto .22 built on the AR15 shape, if it had a 10 round magazine it would still be legal in NZ.
Ardern and Nash have been continually saying they have banned “military style semi automatic rifles and assault rifles” but this is false. They have banned semi autos and any rifle with more than 10 round magazines (including a lot of 100 year old bunny guns) but they have NOT banned assault rifles, those few who could legally possess them before the law change have still got them. The wording is very important here, an assault rifle is technically a select fire full/semi auto military rifle which has always been illegal to ordinary FAL holders in NZ.
NZF are a spent force with an out of touch leader and apart from Tracy Martin a bunch of second rate ministers. As the gloss wears off from the Jacinda effect and the public realise how little has been achieved over the last year I predict National will get back in power . NZF will vanish as Winston retires on his pension and the remaining members fight over the leadership.
Hopefully the Greens will move on get ride of their present social warriors leaders and become a truly Enviromental party again that could work with National for the common good.
If you believe that Shane Jones will win Northlands just by standing, I think you are way off target, Martyn. I wouldn’t back Jones in a one horse race and I suspect there are a great many voters who will say the same.
But I feel the same about National in Northland. National are appalling in Northland.
Ron Mark Wairapara Labour stands a side there.
I think you’re making some big assumptions that any electorate will support any of the NZ First MPs, including Winston himself.
The 4-5% that support NZ First (well Winston really) are rather passionate, and on the flip side those that don’t tend to despise him. Personally I would rather my team lose than have to have Winston decide my future
NZF needs to swallow a “Dead Rat” and grow a set of balls and stand candidates in the Maori Electorates. In the 1996 General Election NZF won the 5 Maori Electorates and won 42% of the Maori vote, even out polling Labour.
After the abdication of the Tight Five from NZF, Winston and NZF abandoned their support base in the Maori Electorates. NZF have not stood candidates in the Maori Electorates and has not contested the Maori Seats, hence NZF support in the Maori Seats has dwindled from 42% down to 8% in the 2017 General Election.
Winston and NZF need to seriously consider finding some good quality candidates to contest the Maori Seats in the 2020 General Election. Otherwise they might be Gone Burger ?
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