As Trump gets tricked or blunders into a regional war with Iran, maybe it’s time to ask if America could actually beat Iran in a military conflict.
Conventional wisdom says America’s war machine is unstoppable, but is it?
While Trump can always resort to nuclear weapons to finalise things, let’s not pretend for one second any military action will be costless to America.
In 2002, America conducted a military training experiment modelling a conflict between Iran and America in the Strait of Hormuz and the results were very, very, very bad for America…
Iran’s two maritime forces—its conventional navy and the navy of the elite Revolutionary Guards—do, however, maintain a missile-equipped fleet of fast attack craft that it claims could take out even the most advanced U.S. warships although some have dismissed the capabilities of such assets. In a mixed computer and live-fire simulation in 2002, a “Red Team” armed with vessels and strategies not unlike those known to be employed by Iran once pummeled a “Blue Team” representing the U.S. to the point where the Pentagon needed to step in to ensure a friendly victory.
The U.S. was already on the path to war with Iraq in 2002, after it accused the country of possessing weapons of mass destructions and threatening regional stability through missile activity and support for militant groups. From July 24 through August 15, the since-dismantled Joint Forces Command conducted a $250 million dollar exercise known as Millennial Challenge that pitted the U.S.’ Blue Team led by Army General Lieutenant General Burwell B. Bell III against a Red Team representing an oil-rich Persian Gulf nation, most associated with either Iran or Iraq, but in actuality led by retired Marine Corps Lieutenant General Paul Van Riper.
Despite being significantly outgunned by a much more technologically-advanced adversary, Van Riper launched a massive shock cruise missile salvo that overwhelmed the Blue Team’ Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System radars, sinking a significant portion of what was the equivalent to a strike carrier group. He then led a shock guerilla-like assault of fast attack craft that finished off much of what remained using missiles and suicide charges.
As Micah Zenko recounted in his 2015 book Red Team: How to Succeed by Thinking Like the Enemy, Bell admitted that Van Riper’s forces had “sunk my damn navy,” and had inflicted “an extremely high rate of attrition, and a disaster, from which we all learned a great lesson.”
Rather than concede the losses, however, the Pentagon’s control team overseeing the exercise simply chose to bring the fallen back to life and then further artificially constrain the Red Team’s abilities in a way that it could not possibly succeed, a disgruntled Van Riper later recounted in a private e-mail leaked by the Army Times. “Instead of a free-play, two-sided game,” he argued, “it simply became a scripted exercise.”
…American over confidence could see Trump blunder into a conflict that could escalate and cause such an enormous amount of damage to the US navy that Trump has to escalate to reap vengeance.
Trump simply doesn’t have the self control or attention span to be an effective military commander, if he trips with Iran, the consequences could be horrific. So let’s be crystal clear, if Trump blunders into a military conflict with Iran, WE ARE NOT JOINING HIM.