GUEST BLOG: Gerard Otto – A potential surge for minor parties


There’s probably some percentage of Labour voters thinking of going Green after the no CGT decision.

The inequity, the unfairness, the feeling of loss, that a surrender came and stole victory at the last moment from the righteous fixers of the problem.

That could be a good thing really, given the Greens are steady on 6% and could easily do with a few more % points to secure their position above the MMP 5% threshold.

NZ First has been languishing just below the line for months now and needed a shot of redemption in the eyes of it’s base who felt betrayed by some of it’s compromises.

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Both of these possible effects do not help National and only act to strengthen the locks, preventing National from getting back into power.

NZ First will not partner with National, even if they do have a future election posture that suggests it might.

The NZ Herald Editorial tried hard to promote the CGT as the most serious sign of a wedge between Labour and NZ First when the opposite is true.

There’s no public cat fight.

There’s no walk out of a party on the other.

If anything this has been a demonstration of complete stability within the Coalition at a time when the biggest sucker punch has landed deep in the guts of many Labour supporters.

I am comforted that Jacinda still believes in a CGT in principle and yes there is some merit to extending the brightline test to fives years to slow down the greedy property speculators inflating house values.

I am slightly disappointed that the political benefits of no CGT has prevailed over the principles.

Pragmatism versus idealism is always a shitty topic for optimists who believe there is a better way.

If there is a better way of curbing the “tax free” inequity enjoyed by Property Speculators as they drive up house prices, I would love to see it implemented.

The selfish are relieved that their retirement plans are un fucked with …whilst generation rent is gutted that there will be no house price crash as they face mountainous mortgages that make bankers sing joy to the world.

Politicians have improved their positions and MMP democracy can be said to have been served well.

The silver lining in eating this giant dead rat is only that National will not win the 2020 election.

This really means – much good can still be done.

Sometimes we must lose a battle to win a war.

Contrary to the belief that Jacinda will be a one term Prime Minister, the latest polls after the Kiwibuild slow start and before the CGT decision, show Labour can afford to burn a small amount of political capital.

Meanwhile the threat of small coalition parties shrinking so much that National could get back in, has been punched hard in the mouth.

National now sit up shit creek without a paddle, without any mates.

Paula Bennett is hiding in a panini deli.

The serious fraud office wants a word with Simon as he reassures us he is safe and secure.

His own MPs are starting to swim for shore.

Plus a long weekend is coming.

So things are not really all that bad, even though this dead rat tastes like shit.


Gerard Otto is an activist and a writer.


  1. I had thought it might help the Greens, but at the end of the day the Greens are a part of the government, if a junior member. And if you are a member of a party that is part of the government and that government is not achieving its aims – especially when it gives in without even a fight, rather than being defeated – you have to wonder what the point of belonging to the party is. At the very least it is demotivating.

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