Boom, latest TV One Poll shows Labour powering ahead…
…and preferred PM poll is equally devastating…
…middle NZ have been made proud by Jacinda’s leadership and they are respecting that with their vote. It’s no surprise that Labour have soared, Jacinda’s incredible dignity and grace under such immense pressure showed her true character and allowed NZ to feel good about itself in a moment of nightmare. In a mere 18 months, Jacinda has won the middle and they will not walk away easily.
It’s easy to understand National plummeting, the proximity to the white supremacist by promoting a far right UN conspiracy that the terrorist scrawled o their guns, the ‘junior emotion staffer’ fiasco, the JLR fiasco, the internal review of women (that no women were asked in) fiasco, the Simon Bridges fiasco. It’s fiasco after fiasco. National look like spoilt rich children where as Jacinda looks like an adult. Judith Collins will wait for Bridges to crash out in the 2020 election before she strikes.
The Greens are stalling, apparently their ‘blame-all-white-crackers-for-terrorism’ strategy surprisingly hasn’t borne any fruit and and NZ First is gaining due to Shane Jones weekly rampage against anyone the provinces despise.
18 months out till the next election here’s how I see it:
Labour will be the biggest Party
National will plunge under 40%
Right now the Greens are polling BELOW their 2017 meltdown – at what point will anyone inside the Party suggest the problem is a leadership one? The Greens will sink under 5% and rather than identify their alienating woke identity politics as the reason they are out of Parliament will instead blame the heteronormative patriarchy as the problem.
NZ First will need to win Northland to ensure political representation.
ACT might pick up an extra seat via MMP coat tailing if Seymour plays the culture war card.
Undecided: 11%
Never liked polls that don’t add up to 100% because you can’t carry the one. Makes it even worse if you forget to add the undecideds.
undecideds…not to mention those who wont answer polls
…and those who enjoy deliberately telling lies to the pollsters
As well as the polling company “chooses” which poll tree they’ll use. The “right” weighted one or a neutral one or a rogue one?
They’ll all go to hell.
That is what I want to know, how many are undecided?
I would not believe the polls and also how quickly it may turn around if for example the CCT is used an election issue for the next election that effects over 70% of the population.
Jacinda is very popular but she isn’t really running the policy.
Remember when Key said vote for me and we will sell 50% of the power assets, and then he got in, did that, and now power is huge, having to be subsidised for the elderly and within a few years the dividends lost have outdated the sale prices!
Another National front page ad in the Northern Advocate today. The chances of Winston winning over the whinging about him and a three year advertising campaign are negligible.
At least when Jones and Peters are gone Northlanders will say they got attention for a short while. You can imagine it now “It took NZ First to rouse National off their butts about Northland, National ignored Northland for donkeys’ years, but of course we’re voting for Matt King and Shane Reti. “
The worrying fact is that 40% still believe in National.
Iv’e never voted for NZF myself, and never would, but I would not count them out based on the polls. It’s telling that they have gone up 1% at the same time that National have dropped. Some National voters who may be convinced that the party has no chance of winning the next election may jump ship nearer to the election and support NZF as a break on what they perceive to be Labour’s more PC tendencies, or to prevent a Labour-Green government. And historically count WP out has almost always been a mugs game.
The best way to ensure victory for a major party is to “give” a safe electoral seat to a minor party.
Wellington central to Pebble
Ohariua to Dunne
Epsom to Act
and National reigned.
National were too arrogant to “give” Winston his seat up north last election and – crash.
My next post address the essence of MMP – I was a player from day one.
The polls are charitable to Labour at this moment.
Too ensure victory Labour needs to “give” a safe seat to an ally.
But Labour needs the Greens more than they need NZ First.
Why?
Would you trust Winston – even if you “gave” his party a safe seat?
I’d give a safe seat to Shane Jones so I don’t see why I wouldn’t give one to Winston but that’s just me. James Shaw deserves a safe seat too. If they want a divorce latter well then fine, no harm, any decent major party would just adsorbe those votes back in.
ACT are irrelevant – and insult to MMP and what we call “democracy”.
But what can the Greens do if it turns out that the heteronormative patriarchy actually is the problem.
Ha ha
This poll should be a worry to all people who actually want real change to happen in New Zealand, I mean to actually DO something to move away from a fossil fuel powered economy, and to create one that is more in tune with the environment and sustainable.
The voters are rewarding Jacinda before anyone else, for her ‘caring performance’ after the Christchurch shootings disaster that struck into the heart of many in this country. They are also rewarding her and her government for doing little, that is, a good part of middle class voters continue to give them the benefit of the doubt that they can ‘manage’ the economy and society as well as John Key did, in their views.
To be honest, this government has done little apart from passing the so called ‘Family Package’ last year. It has held ‘steady’ to the status quo. Well, yes, the minimum wage was increased a bit more, but that will be eaten away soon by increases in prices for goods and services, as employers and businesses will simply pass the costs on. I can already see it in the supermarkets.
We have had many working groups and so forth, and this year of ‘delivery’ is nearly half way through, and we are still not any smarter on whether this government will significantly change the tax system. We are still waiting for real changes to the welfare system, we are waiting for real changes to deliver on sustainability goals for the environment, we are waiting for homes to be built, teachers and hospital staff to be paid more, and the long list can go on. What about electric cars, or those using other alternative energy, has anybody got any news about what the government wants to deliver to reduce fossil fuel emissions?
I doubt it.
Farmers are waiting, businesses are waiting, middle class property owners and ‘investors’ are waiting, government departments are waiting, unions are waiting, voters are waiting, and uncertain, and they want to see what this government will actually do.
So the Christchurch mass murders were a serious ‘distraction’ that benefited Jacinda and her government, it took the focus away from the government having said a lot, but done little, also unable to come to a united position on policies.
And so this good poll must be seen in that light, in light of the Christchurch massacres, and what the government did to stand by victims, to appeal for ‘us’ in ‘unity’, and deliver feelgood stuff.
Once things are back to normal, the government has to DELIVER, and on that the voters will judge Jacinda and her lot next year.
With the status quo, we remain ill prepared for the future, very vulnerable as a country and economy. We stand still, almost, and people carry on as per usual, while we are heading to the cliff, when it comes to climate disasters.
I am NOT encouraged by the poll, as the voters’ judgment is based on self preservation interests, not a willingness for change. if there was real change, the polls will look different. So the government carries on like other ones, pretending all can be fine, we can take our time, and no sacrifices will need to be made.
That is living in fantasy land, like so many people, and we are getting nowhere really, no time to celebrate this poll, it is a very worrying situation, very worrying.
Excellent observation Martyn about the rise of Labour and the electorates approval of Jacinda Ardern
But this bit is way of the mark
“The Greens are stalling, apparently their ‘blame-all-white-crackers-for-terrorism’ strategy surprisingly hasn’t borne any fruit and and NZ First is gaining due to Shane Jones weekly rampage against anyone the provinces despise.”
Thats nonsense. Yiu know as well as I do that small parties ( Greens and NZ F irst) always stagnate in berween election campaigns. Deprived of the oxygen of publicity from campaigning the public *forget* smaller parties in lieu of the Big Two
The public dont give a rats arse about some of the things that we do in the rarified atmosphere of beltway-blogging
Next year the Greens will rise again in the polls as campaigning gets under way
I expect them to get around 7% or 8%
Comrade – I hope I am wrong about the Greens, and I hope they can get to 8%, but based on the past 3 elections, the Greens over poll which means there is a very good chance they will slip beneath the 5% threshold.
Why?
Climate change is an existential threat to our species, yet the Greens are limp in the polls. Their alienating middle class woke identity politics is turning voters off, it’s not gaining them voters.
Stop banging on about the Greens. It’s becoming tiresome.
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