Latest Poll: Labour 49.6%, National 41.3%, NZ First 2.3%, Greens 3.9%

By   /   April 11, 2019  /   24 Comments

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The Business NZ Poll taken just after the atrocity shows what TDB suggested the political outcomes from the Christchurch attack would be…

The Business NZ Poll taken just after the atrocity shows what TDB suggested the political outcomes from the Christchurch attack would be…

As part of it, the 1000 polled were also asked which party they supported.

Those figures showed Labour very nearly cracked the 50 per cent mark for support.

Once those who did not give a choice of party are taken out, Labour was on 49.6 per cent, National on 41.3 per cent and NZ First and the Green Party were languishing on 2.3 per cent and 3.9 per cent respectively.

…here’s how I see the impact on the Political landscape.

Labour: Jacinda’s remarkable leadership has impressed middle New Zealand, and they will respect her at the polls come what may. She made us feel good about ourselves at a time when we felt shame, she became the leadership we want to see. Her empathy and compassion and strength have made us a better people. Labour will be the largest political party at the 2020 election.

National: While National had no idea their co-opting of a far right UN conspiracy would lead to James Shaw being punched or align with a mass murdering white supremacist, they still smell bad from the association. The manner in which Judith Collins has come out with more empathy than her entire time in politics shows she has understood how rapidly the political tide has turned. I wouldn’t be surprised to see National start to drop heavily in the polls now, any hope they had of gerrymandering a win by being the biggest Political party while sinking Labour’s coalition parties beneath 5% and taking the Government majority is a pipe dream now. Those National voters in the middle will vote for Jacinda out of respect and those on the right will angrily demand a more culture war politics from a National Party that can’t give them that. Judith won’t move before the election now, she will allow Simon to take the loss and immediately challenge him after he fails at the ballot box.

Greens: Their current desire to connect micro aggressions to macro violence and blame Pakeha for this act of white supremacy violence will probably be huge on Twitter and micro aggression policing millennials  but be the final straw for the more centrist Green voter. Green Party apologists will argue the Greens are righteous and should be supported no matter what yet history suggests any political party that has gone backwards in the last 3 elections require far more self reflection than unquestioning subservience to a failing communications strategy. There’s still a good chance they will slip under 5% as voters turn away from their divisive blame game stuff and are drawn to Labour’s inclusive message. Pure temple politics vs broadchurch politics at a time of national grieving is always going to see pure temple ostracised.

NZ First: NZ First will not be able to blow any of their dog whistles any longer and will be reliant on Shane Jones winning Northland to remain in Parliament. They are also at an inflexion point philosophically, what does NZ First stand for? If NZ First can re-identify their stance against neoliberalism and reinvent it into being politically relevant again they could be a new force unleashed. Labour & the Greens are effectively free market parties, NZ First’s regional growth fund is effectively direct Keynesianism. Stop hating on the migrants and start hating on the economic hegemonic structure that has robbed NZ of its egalitarianism. NZ First need to parachute in a couple of super star candidates. There are two who could be enormous boons for the Party and speak of a new direction as Winston moves into Statesman status

ACT: If Seymour plays the culture war card far harder than National, he has a real chance of pulling in an extra 2 or 3 MPs. There is a small but vocal electorate who are outraged by the Crusaders considering a name change and who think the woke have run amok, Seymour could bait that electorate and get 2,5% just from that.  Because he was on Dancing with the Stars, he can frame his snowflake assertions as under grad ‘just asking questions’ styled smart arse-ism.

New Conservatives: Their proximity to the UN conspiracy makes them too radioactive and they will need to roll back lots of their messaging which is what makes them attractive to rednecks in the first place. Sub 5% but will pick up angry disaffected voters.

Blue Green: While this political vehicle was supposed to just be a spoiler for the Greens, those National voters liberal enough to vote environmentally will be equally appalled at the UN conspiracy stuff. The Blue Greens will quickly turn into a protest vote for those voters. It won’t give them 5%, but it will hurt National and the wider right wing vote.

TOP: Will benefit from the same above dynamic.

 

CONCLUSION: With so many sub 5% parties wasting the right wing vote, Labour as the largest Party will benefit from the way MMP recycles wasted votes and could possibly govern alone or with just one other Party.

The only spanner in the works will be the impact of a global economic down turn.

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24 Comments

  1. Sam Sam says:

    Given some of the damage that was done to the budget over the last 10-20 years or so Labour has made the biggest moves while National are going sideways, you’d be looking to go offensive rather than a defensive mindset. I mean I’d say NZFirst is worth having a punt on, Y’know. Same with New Conservatives, I don’t like them not one bit, but if they or any one else can make pundits or who ever react to them then I think they’ll attract people who just want to make things happening.

    Green Party don’t have an offensive bone in there body so if they want to make things happening and go defensive well I’m sure there’s an endangered bird or something on the threatened species list that need a good protest, Y’know? Going on the offensive and looking all hard and tough vs big oil, well the The Greens are just not scary enough for that. So Y’know, protect the environment and go hard for them. Still the Greens coming off there highs in the poll and they can still find a rally so NZFirst and The Greens should find some stability. I want all the chaos to be on the right, and all the stability on the left.

    Y’know? All the climate deniers and gun nuts and other bullshit chemtrails and 1080 can fuck off to the right. So it’s a kind of swing vote and reversal into quality over quantity.

  2. Castro says:

    Good thing the polls are as accurate as the census, including the ones that predicted Trump’s defeat 🙂

    The Wage Slave Labour and Transnational Capital Parties are both far right parties.

    One regime’s terrorist is another’s freedom fighter 🙂

    • RED BUZZARD says:

      +100 …and it would be interesting to see their questions ( also right after a major trauma?…how does that affect polls ?)

      …btw who is Business NZ ?

      …and who exactly did they poll?

      …nothing to do with David Farrar? ( or is that some other research polling company that people refuse to talk to?)

    • WILD KATIPO says:

      … ‘ Good thing the polls are as accurate as the census, including the ones that predicted Trump’s defeat ‘…

      AHAHAHAHAAA !!!

      Bloody good one !

      L0L !

  3. dennis dorney says:

    Not long ago on TDB I pointed out that Labour could save the Greens and NZF if they wanted to by simply changing the rules within the MMP but will choose not to because Labour and National are both first-past-the posters at heart.
    I suggested that in the dying days of the next election, when it is clear that National can’t win, Labour will put the knife in to Greens/NZF. That might make Jacinda’s sainthood look suspect.
    I also a couple of days ago pleaded with TDB to drop the isue about the name change for the Crusaders, not because that is my view – I couldn’t give a stuff about rugby – but because rugby supporters arent known for their IQ but get very vindictive when their nose is bloodied. It looks like the penny’s dropped.

    • Sam Sam says:

      Putting the NZFirst or The Greens political fortunes in the hands of another party, all be it Labour, is political suicide. How many examples would you like? Mana, Māori Party, United Future, Alliance. If you can’t stand up for yourself and the values you believe in then you’ve got no business being in parliament.

      • WILD KATIPO says:

        Don’t you worry about NZ First , daggy boy !

        Their aint no way in an MMP environment that Labour will do it all alone. And if they do successfully one term ,- they sure as hell wont be doing it the next.

  4. francesca says:

    Many a slip between cup and lip

    • CLEANGREEN says:

      Be careful to heavily suspect any such poll by “business NZ”.

      One should be careful not to rely on that group of ‘self interest’ – so we will be wise to rely on the ‘real public polls’ thanks.

  5. Marc says:

    So the reverse logic is, where need more tragedies for Jacinda to step up and show compassion, empathy and moral guidance then? That seems to be where she ‘shines’.

    I doubt that this alone will keep her and Labour in government, and once the support drops to the lower 40 percent, with no Greens and NZ First in Parliament, the Nats only need Seymour and they are back in power then.

    Do not forget THE ECONOMY and other matters that governments are expected to manage successfully.

    Where is the government on climate change and measures to mitigate what will head towards us?

    Where is the change in transport and other areas, so dependent on fossil fuels?

    Where is the new tax policy, where is the stuff they wanted to offer beneficiaries to feel well and get on better, i.e. have enough to live off?

    Is the winter energy payment it???

  6. chruskl says:

    “Labour & the Greens are effetely free market parties”

    Sad but true.

    National in the 21st century = NEOLIBERALISM + identity politics
    Labour the 21st century = IDENTITY POLITICS + neoliberalism

  7. saveNZ says:

    Bit of a worry for Greens and NZ First.

    Also Natz strategy is to coast along until before the election and make Labour feel complacent.. just like the 2014 election that Labour should have won, but didn’t because they did their usual chestnut of capital gains taxes.

    The only reason Labour got in last time is that they said they would not bring capital gains taxes in and Jacinda looked impressive in the debate with Richardson and it importantly stopped publicity on Labours appalling Kiwibuild that everyone (and now even the brighter Labourites) should be able to see is a dog and the wrong strategy when they need to increase the rental shortages not prop up construction and developers. They also have Simon Bridges who when you look at what Natz have been involved in, aka the selling off of list MP places to MP’s representing foreign donors – it is a worry Labour are not higher!

    • Sam Sam says:

      The wasted vote theory pushed by woke identity Green MPs and members about voting for a party that is polling under 5% will now also hurt the Greens since they are polling consistently under 5%. Only way out is to jettison the identity politics.

      • Bg says:

        The Remuera SUV driving mums, who used to support the Greens are now in love with Jacinda. With Marama and Goliz pushing the Greens further to to the fringes, looks like they’re toast.

        • saveNZ says:

          not a huge amount of support for the Greens in Remuera…. it’s so in love with the Natz that they also give charity votes and nearly a million dollars of tax payers $$$ for the fake ACT party.

          Not many facts behind the idea that Greens are SUV driving mums from Remuera and their loss in the polls are because that demographic are now voting in droves for Jacinda….

          BAKER, Leighton230
          Conservative80
          COATES, Barry2785
          Green Party3263
          GOLDSMITH, Paul10986
          National Party22875
          PARKER, David7067
          Labour Party9575
          PAUL, Julian657
          New Zealand First Party1229
          SEYMOUR, David16505
          ACT New Zealand696
          Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party38
          Ban10809
          Democrats for Social Credit7
          Internet Party6
          MANA6
          Māori Party124
          NZ Outdoors Party7
          New Zealand People’s Party34
          The Opportunities Party (TOP)1043
          United Future24
          Candidate Informals: 317
          Party Informals: 76
          TOTAL: 38,547
          TOTAL: 39,092

  8. Ngungukai says:

    NZF will probably cease to be relevant after the next Election, once Winston retires they will have lost their branding.

    • CLEANGREEN says:

      NGUNGUKAI Nah pull the other one,

      No there are many older NZF folks around and don’t come out until the election so as normal NZF polls rises as the election comes around again.

      Winston will remain to keep NZF on the board, as he always sees it his baby to hold all those ‘National creepy MP’s’ at bay, so don’t fret.

  9. Kevin Brown says:

    A few thoughts.

    When is the next main stream poll due out?

    I’m surprised the MMP rules haven’t been changed in line with what was recommended when ‘the royal commission’ looked into it. Especially given NZFirst & Greens being in Govt.

    Given NZFirst have a HUGE pensioner following. And Winston LIED to the pensioners (along with Jacinda) about correcting Section 70.
    n.b. Natz lost every court battle, so said they would correct it and didn’t. Then Jacinda and Winston made hay over it, and said they’ve ‘put it right’, but have been ABSOLUTEL silent about it now they’re in power.
    This fact alone should sink NZFirst, bar Jones being gifted Northland by Labour and Greens.

    • Sam Sam says:

      As far as I know section 70 gives the government the power to confiscate over seas retirement funds. Well that’s one way.

      The problem is the average retirement fund is about $70k which is just a subsidy at that amount for power or water. At $70k it’s not sustaining any one with out government intervention.

      So the average pension value should be $1 million dollars and that’s the problem. If I was to come up with a solution is probably cancel the license of all underperforming retirement funds or something like that. Perhaps up employer contributions, but those are actually going up to 15% soonish so yeah. Probably not the answer you where looking for but a right solution any way.

    • WILD KATIPO says:

      Kind of willfully selective there mate?

      Kiwibuild ?

      No ,… there’s no probs for NZ First as they WILL get back over the line and they WILL determine the next govt. This is MMP , not FFP.

      And there aint gonna be any gubbamint unless NZ First says so.

      Its just maths.

      And most folk want a legitimate gubbamint for stability’s sakes as do the banks and financial institutions. So expect the cry to ring out once more …

      ” Callin’ on Snoopy , – to do it again”.

      Expect Labour the Greens and NZ First to be in power next election and do so with confidence and panache.

  10. mosa says:

    There is a lot of water to flow under the bridge before November 20th next year.
    With MMP i just can’t see a major party in a position to govern alone.
    They will need other parties which is why kiwis voted to retain this voting system twice.
    If we were to have real democracy then the changes advocated to the MMP system would have been adopted but the National party but they conveniently buried the whole idea even after the public voted for changes because it did not suit their corrupt practices.
    Labour could be forced to adopt the commissions advice with pressure from the Greens and NZF but it won’t happen.
    I still think that the Greens will be there and you can’t rule out Winston and his party.
    What we will see is a realignment of the right vote with Seymour already pushing two high profile issues which will as Martyn pointed out give them a boost as National sinks further as an option.
    There is a serious red neck vote out there and i would not rule out the New Conservatives making a small impact with their sights set on post 2020.
    Maybe an ACT-Conservative Christian political arrangement may dominate the right going into the 2020s ?
    March 15th has changed the entire game and the country and will dominate events in a new political era soon to become apparent.
    The other issue that will shake things up is the coming economic realignment.
    A week is a long time in politics and 18 months is a life time.

  11. e-clectic says:

    If that poll was what happened at the ballot that would be a terrible result for democracy.
    That would result in:
    Labour 65 seats
    National 55 seats

    (May vary by 1 if the Epsom ACT compact remains)

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Authorised by Martyn Bradbury, The Editor, TheDailyBlog,