Mike is not happy…
Mike Hosking: Numbers don’t lie, time for the Government to wake up over CGT
The numbers are new, but the theme isn’t. Business NZ has polled on the capital gains tax, and they’ve come up with pretty much what we have been saying since the whole mad idea got reheated by the Labour Party, who seem obsessed by it.
Overall, 65 per cent say no. Has it harmed the Government? Half say, yes. Should it be on farms and businesses? 54 per cent say no. Houses? A bit closer, 49 per cent against 39 per cent for. Kiwisaver? 90 per cent say no.
…hold up, because while the CGT numbers might not lie outright, they certainly deceive.
While Business NZ is claiming this poll proves them right, there was another Poll barely a week ago that showed the complete opposite…
A new Horizon Research poll shows more people support than oppose the idea of a capital gains tax.
However, when the poll dug into more detail about the asset classes people owned, opposition was significantly higher.
The nationwide Horizon Research Poll – taken between February 28 and March 15 – found 44 per cent of New Zealand adults supported introducing a capital gains tax and 35 per cent opposed it.
A further 16 per cent are neutral on the new tax, while 6 per cent did not know.
…and are the Business NZ numbers solid? Not really…
So BusinessNZ’s $5b – or $3.5b figure – is an overestimate?
It probably can’t be taken at face value, but that doesn’t mean a CGT won’t have big costs.
So this is just the wealthy rebelling at the idea of having to be fair.
Labour can get a CGT over the line by restricting who it punishes, and by aiming its sharpest edges towards those who property speculate. As long as Labour are prepared to fight and articulate why a CGT is fair, they can get this passed.