What MBIE’s hysterical costings on oil & gas didn’t include


Winston Peters dismisses MBIE advice on cost of oil, gas ban
Government officials are warning the move to halt new offshore oil exploration permits could cost the country billions. Energy Minister Megan Woods introduced legislation to Parliament bringing the decision a step closer to being enacted and released new advice from officials at the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE). The ministry analysis estimated a cost to New Zealand of $7.9 billion in lost tax revenue between 2027 and 2050, but noted that would depend on future oil prices and interest rates. PEPANZ boss Cameron Madgwick told Morning Report it is time for an urgent review of the policy, but Winston Peters tells Guyon Espiner it’s time to “stop the humbug… New Zealanders want change.”

MBIE’s advice that the cost of ending oil & gas future permits is between $1.2b-$23.5b is probably true, but what they don’t include is the cost of the planet super warming and destroying all functioning civilisation as we know it .

I’d say $23.5b to avoid that is a steal.

Big oil is twisting the arms off the Government and have clearly captured MBIE, we should not allow their profit margins to frighten us into being manipulated into denying climate change.



  1. MBIE has been proven to use “cherry picking” by selective use of their preferred “references’ that they used in previous studies ministry analysis estimatedthis MBIE use several times Martyn.

    We have evidence of their MBIE studies are flawed so right you are there.

    Many in HB/Gisborne call MBIE transport especially rail reports as “white wash”.

    I advocated that this MBIE agency designed by Steven Joyce the failed $11 Billion hole man be broken apart since labour has now taken over Government.

    So now I have been proved right that this MBIE is a ‘rogue ministry’ still full of ‘National Party sympathisers’.

    So Labour need to break MBIE up as they did other National Party skewed agencies.

    NZ taxpayer expect these agencies to provide true and complete reports generated by these “Public service” ministries.

    Good article.

  2. Oil still suffers from the fundamental problem of being a non-renewable natural resource. Which among other things means those oil jobs are still going to go away, because no matter what there’s still only so much oil that exists to be extracted.

    That’s simply how mineral extraction based jobs innately work. It doesn’t matter if it’s oil, gold or something else; the mine always runs dry sooner or later because there’s only so much there. The western US is full of Gold Rush ghost towns that were abandoned when the gold ran out; the same was always going to happen to towns built around oil, and for the same reasons. Oil drilling isn’t going to magically grow new oil fields any more than the gold mines grew new gold.

  3. As long as we can suck out the 49 billion tons of carbon ,that we put into the atmosphere every year , we won’t have a problem burning fossil fuels because we will be in equilibrium .Simple.Carbon in ,carbon out .

    But until we have the machines to do this, (DAC direct air capture )we are still on the road to extinction .

    The profits of a few old white guys with clinical greed disorders or a planet to live on ?

    The more they bleat the more carbonphobic I become .

    • Oil companies would also cry over “equilibrium.” I mean the term equilibrium itself leaves nothing for profits. You know there just a bunch of professional cry babies.

    • Industrial humans are not suffering enough yet. They only die by the million per year as a consequence of oil addiction.

    • I hope that you are wrong about that, because if Israel will use it come what may (and they are crazy enough to do it) , we have all the ingredients for WW3.

  4. I was sadly disappointed yesterday not to hear anyone say that this in the media spotlight. In this global warming world in which we live no politician was brave enough to say that we simply can’t extract all this oil and stay in a world that is comfortable for us.

    Keep it in the ground is the mantra future generations will have to live by, but we are slow at adopting it even with this government that includes the Green party.

  5. Trouble is that what the Government has done has done NOTHING to reduce the amount of carbon we produce. All it has done is prevented us from drilling for that carbon.
    Instead we will end up importing that carbon, which will result in higher carbon output due to shipping.

    This is a ridiculous policy. Far better off implementing policies that drive down the demand for carbon based energy, NOT driving down supply.

  6. The point many seem to have missed in this saga is that the move to shut down oil & gas exploration WILL NOT REDUCE C02 EMISSIONS!

    In fact it may increase them.

    Many NZ based industries rely on gas for process heating and we have tens of thousands of domestic gas heaters. So when the Taranaki gas supply shuts down we will be forced to import gas and the process of importing (on LNG ships) burns heavy fuel oil. It will also increase the cost of gas and maybe drive even more jobs away.

    The government has shot itself in the foot: Green ideology trumps scientific fact.

    • Narrative always seems to follow price when ever you’re around my pet. It’s not about Trump science. It’s not about hanging on to Americas car door. It’s about unleashing New Zealand’s entrepreneurial spirit and ability to allocate resources as kiwis see fit and not at the behest of foriengers.

  7. “I’d say $23.5b to avoid that is a steal.”

    Yeah except that NZ emits just 0.1% of global carbon emissions (69th worst emitter). So a very slow clap for achieving the moral high ground literally none of the actual big polluters care about, I ‘spose. A lot of readers don’t seem to realise that just NZ cutting emissions doesn’t actually matter at all given our contribution – the ENTIRE planet breathes the same air.

    • At least you’re one above Trumps intellect. $23.5b per year is how much New Zealand stands to lose because NZ energy is heavily dependant on imports from other countries. We have left on the global negotiating tables the fortunes of New Zealand’s economy and energy independence because we have normal people with small minds and low horizons. Our universities are so caught up in identity politics they can’t even be bothered making weilders or atleast polytechnics are the orphaned child of education we can’t even deal with little problems let alone climate change on a global scale.

      Ots for these reasons why a new Māori climate commissioner is so nessecsasry. It probably wouldn’t even matter what some one did to stick there heads up, good ole NITRIUM can spot his chance to come over and tut tut Tuting that NZ is 0.1% of global blah blah and we need to hide away because the world is just too big and to bad that it might hurt a little.

    • Mr Nitrium, so we dont need to worry about using oil at all because we only account for 0.1% of emissions. We are also , as you say , the 69th worst emitter. My dodgy arithmetic says that NZ’s population is only a 2 thousandth of world population so we are using about a thirty times more than we should on a per capita basis. Doesn’t that stir any conscience in you. Um, no.

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