What the new TVNZ poll means

By   /   April 17, 2018  /   10 Comments

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The latest TVNZ Poll will be sobering news to the new Government.

The latest TVNZ Poll will be sobering news to the new Government.

My sources tell me the issue that caused Labour’s plunge wasn’t as Hosking claims, the Clare Curran fiasco or the Russian spy issue – the Labour drop had occurred earlier which leads to the suggestion that it was Labour telling the voting parents of NZ that if their 16 year olds had attended their summer camp and had been inappropriately touched, then Labour wouldn’t have informed them.

By arguing that Labour had followed best practice (when really they in fact hadn’t), Labour simply managed to infuriate every voting parent in the country.

It’s Labour’s perceived social engineering that always burn them.

The most concerning bit is that National are still riding so high.

It is clear to National they will not and can not win by outright majority and so they need a new ally.

Watch for a new attempt to revive the Conservative Party and Mark Mitchell to attend the opening of whatever new launch the create. The play will be a flirtation between Mitchell and the Conservative Party in the media and Mitchell will jump to the Conservative Party and will be allowed a free run by National in Rodney so National have mates going into the 2020 election.

For those who will want to write the whole poll off as right wing propaganda, remember TVNZ changed the methodology of their polls to include cell phones rather than just landlines so these Polls are actually ones that should favour the Left.

If National are doing this well in polls with methodology that recognise the landline bias, there should be concerns.

Labour are still not in control of their message in a mainstream media who are wall to wall with right wing attack trolls.

 

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10 Comments

  1. e-clectic says:

    Instead of, or as well as, posting on here – write a letter to your local paper.

  2. savenz says:

    The U turn on TPPA was not wise. Greens have gone up, but have been so luke warm on it that they have not capitalised as much as they should have.

    Basically people have given up on any honesty on the TPPA and gone back to not voting, thinking all politicians are the same, or being part of the missing million that have plagued labour.

    If you want to bring on the middle class, then selling sovereignty out for .03% over decades with the risks starting from day 1 for most folks and councils which will increase basic prices while lowering wages.

    TPPA may be great for those like John Key with vineyards and an offshore bank account, but I’m not sure that is Labour’s target market, or is it?

    Also the petrol tax which in the absence of public transport options that are feasible for most people, and the rumblings of a capital gains tax on property which is the only thing keeping the majority of people feeling they are wealthy with wages stagnating and costs rising.

    Most people in Auckland feel Auckland council, Auckland transport and Metrowater are basket cases who grab every cent they can get away with, while constantly putting out their hands for more hand outs. Last time they did a survey Auckland council got only a 21% satisfaction rate. Wow, you seriously have to piss people off a lot to be at that level of approx 80% dissatisfaction. Rather than trying to be a better council they just spend millions on PR to tell us all how great they are and then demand more money because they really can’t cope with all the billionaire yacht races they like to prop up and add in more wealthy tourists and funny enough make all the congestion and infrastructure issues worse.

    Saying that Labour/NZ First/Greens are 100% better than the Natz who are morally bankrupt to the core, but listening and keeping promises and being in touch are too much to ask from the new government.

    Pity, they could clean up, if they bothered to do the above. Start by getting rid of their car for a month and see if their family can cope and how much it costs them in public transport. Pretty sure they will not be lecturing Kiwis how they will be better off financially without the car because after a couple of days they will need to get the car back again.

    Then the new government can work out how allowing 1000’s of cheap workers for things like luxury hotels and weird bus tenders, and all the routs under the immigration system like aged parents coming in, are working out when the current taxpayers are paying to subsidise employers, paying to pay for locals out of work and paying to upgrade infrastructure that they increasingly can’t afford to use with their lower and lower wages and who is most likely to be able to afford a house.

    Fewer and fewer rental houses are being built … and not much sign of being able to afford to buy a house either on local wages..

    More beach closures, one of the few ‘free’ things that people enjoy doing, increasingly off the cards.

    Things are better under the new government, but why oh why do they always have to screw up the easy things like doing a risk assessment on TPPA rather than rushing in to sign? They are still Rogernomics thinker’s, Jacinda or no Jacinda and although most people have given up bothering to protest on this issue, it should be clear after 3 years of protests and numerous polls on the issue that the average Kiwi is far from sold on TPPA, and like Auckland council, pretending you have won people over, Labour and NZ First are just kidding themselves and another tick in the ‘untrustworthy’ box.

  3. Red Buzzard says:

    imo the Left coalition should stand staunch and be seen to be a cohesive force for change and good… and remedying the inequalities and sell off of NZers rights…as well as the environement

    …instead the Greens have once again have let the side down by gifting Nactional their questions in Parliament…not a good look and a mixed message

  4. Mjolnir says:

    To paraphrase our former smiling, kitten-kissing glorious leader, i’m fully comfortable with the poll. If you add the non-National vote together, the right are slowly losing support from the 47% they enjoyed last year. It’ll be interesting what the next poll will show as evidently the TV1-Colmar Brunton may not have shown any fallout from the rotting Middlemore hospital scandal.

  5. simonm says:

    Surely Labour could counter any move to gift Rodney/Mark Mitchell to the Conservatives by giving NZ First/Winston a free run at Northland and doing the same for the Greens in Nelson? This would undoubtedly prompt howls of outrage from National, but they wouldn’t have much of a leg to stand on since they’ve been gifting Epsom to the oxygen thieves at ACT for so long.

  6. Draco T Bastard says:

    By arguing that Labour had followed best practice (when really they in fact hadn’t), Labour simply managed to infuriate every voting parent in the country.

    Yeah, actually, they did:

    However, the head of the sexual abuse survivor support organisation Help said Labour followed the correct process in dealing with alleged sexual assault at its summer camp. It was up to the victims to tell police or parents.

    Parents may not like that they’re not the best people to go to regarding sexual assault upon their children but there you go.

    The parents are likely to over-react and make things worse. And that doesn’t even take into account them being bad parents of which we have far too many in the country.

    It’s Labour’s perceived social engineering that always burn them.

    And National’s which goes uncommented as they cut taxes for the rich while increasing them on the poor, cut funding for public health and push even more government money out to landlords and other rich individuals.

    • The Daily Blog Martyn says:

      With all due respect. They didn’t follow best practise.

      It is not best practise to not inform the young people of their legal rights with the Police.

      It is not best practise to wait weeks to contact the young people.

      It is not best practise to have one of the young people go on social media to complain that Labour had done nothing.

      It is best practise to wrap support services around young victims and give them the agency to make a call.

      You can not suggest what Labour did here was best practise.

  7. savenz says:

    I’d say most parents are still more outraged over the roast busters than this Labour conference which has been a bit of a media beat up similar to Clare Curren’s coffee date. I’d say only the ‘media’ types are up in arms about it, parents more worried about the roast buster rapists getting away with it.

  8. Castro says:

    The Natzi Party will most likely have enough foreign (resident) voters coming on stream to gift them the 2020 election. Blue Dragons, Go!

  9. Zack Brando says:

    National are a joke .. truely surprised they scored so highly. Goes to show there are a lot of brainwashed voters out there. I’m normally pretty accepting of polls, but this poll did give me pause – I question its legitimacy.

    Look into the micromanagement of the polling ..

    Zack.

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