Labour’s secret weapon: Winston Peters & Willie Jackson on the campaign trail.
What Bill can offer Winston vs what Jacinda can offer him will say as much about the personal values of each of the Leaders as it will about what choice Winston decides.
Bill will do what National does best, offer bribes. They will offer Winston a deal in Northland, they will offer him Deputy and they will promise plump Ambassador jobs overseas.
Jacinda on the other hand could offer Winston the macro economic reforms that cut to the heart of NZ First’s economic sovereignty values.
Winston is looking for legacy, not baubles. Labour can offer Winston that, National can’t.
There is far more that bonds Labour and NZ First together than separates them. Clamping down on immigration is a priority for both parties and when you consider the way the Chinese heavy electorates in Auckland went National and not for Labour, they have a very clear cut political imperative for shutting down mass immigration. Add to that political reality the new University of Canterbury report into National Party connections to Chinese Business interests and there are many deep seated values that connect NZ First and Labour in a way that don’t bond between NZ First and National.
For Winston however, personal relationships trump everything else, and in this Jacinda’s secret weapon is Willie Jackson whose long and deep friendship with Winston is the very sort of connection that Winston will need to make a Labour-NZ First-Green Government a practical reality.
Special votes get counted in 2 weeks and it will grow the Lab-NZF-Green majority from 61 to 63, at 63 you have a working majority.
Jacinda can offer Winston legacy, Bill can offer him baubles. What Winston chooses will become his political epitaph.
Well we could kiss all that treaty fluff good bye under an NZ1st + Act + National coalition. Could probably kiss it good bye under Labour as well.
sam bill already kissed goodbye to the act party so what are you talking about
Coming into this election I was sceptical anything would get done this term. And still am sceptical. The race is so tight the specials votes will take about 10 days before the results are tellies up.
National on %46 are not as strong as they were 72hrs ago. Let’s just assume Winstons does get his bugles and goes with National. There are so many issues Winstons could pull support. And that’s what Winston does. He holds the government to account. On the campaign trail Winston sold his party as insurance against the water tax, and against elites. Plenty of things to turn the National party into a lame duck government.
On the other hand if Winston goes with Labour/Greens then a shit ton of investments will be enabled.
I think it is about 75% likely that Winston will go with National but there are some conditions that I can observe.
The longer the decision is left, the more likely he will go Labour.
This is because he doesn’t need to know the final results if he wants to go with National. The final results will only make a difference of a couple of seats at the most. The most likely scenario is that National will lose one list seat and the Greens will gain one. This will still give National a majority of 12 or 13 depending on whether ACT is invited to the party (from what English has been saying that is not a given).
But if Winston goes with Labour and the Greens he will probably need to wait until the final result, hoping that the Greens will gain the extra seat and the new government will thus have a majority of 2 once you take out the Speaker. Not much but manageable. A majority of one is possible (National managed it) but is dodgy and it takes only one rebel MP to bring down the government.
So the longer we wait the better it looks for Labour. However, I still expect Winston to announce he will go with National in the next couple of days. Indeed that might be his intention now and he is just playing it out, enjoying having the media at his beck and call.
We just don’t know yet
Winston should remember the 1996-99 debacle before going with the Nats. And if that doesn’t jog his memory, the fate of the Maori Party should serve as a warning what happens to those aligning with the Right.
You have been warned, Mr Peters!
Winston needs a “Legacy” project as he wants to leave NZ First setup as a Party that will live to fight after he retires so if he went will national he wont achieve that goal.
Winston and all of us will never trust national again after the last nine terrible years of lies lies and more lies have left national as a “liability” so that any political party that joins there corrupt adminiostration will also die a painful death and Winston would forever be looking over his shoulder fearing being framed with yet more phoney ‘winewbox’ or ‘super overpayment’ sagas.
+100 CLEANGREEN
We will not know anything much about where Winston will go before October 7th. So two weeks of much speculation will follow, and the media will exploit this, to increase their ratings and increases in viewer- and readership.
After much evidence based research, policy, experience and intellect, i believe Winston should go…
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…
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tell National to fuck off.
Winston has more intellegence in one of his little fingers than National has in all the lying bodies of the dying carcass of the National Party.
he has ingrained “common sense policies” that are impossible for national and their paymasters to ever adopt so it is a foregone conclusionthat at the last two public meetings we attended that NZ First cannot ‘align’ its own polies to the current National Party policies.
So the answer as to weather NZF will go with national is left in the resolutions Winston has clearly conyeyed to the public meetings.
No!!!! = NZF will not go with National.
Blood is thicker than water!
What would be worse?
A Lab/NZF/Green
or
Blue/Green
LAB/NZ1st/Green. Reason is Winstons political capital is to withdraw support for a small majority government effectively destroying a sitting government. Winston threatened to withdraw support for a 3 frigate navy and got his way. Now RNZN has a two frigate navy. The reason Winstons didn’t like the 3rd/4th frigate option was because they where about 10 times more expensive over the whole life cycle of the Anzac Frigates.
So meh. Drink up nubs.
The entire political discourse just ran out of ideas. Then got stuck in bullying there way to the results and got punished with the lowest voter participation rate on record and that’s dangerous because neither National nor Labour have any right to negotiate Trade deals on Behalf Of New Zealanders.
Again. Drink up.
Sam, you’ve been drinking too much.
Dry your eyes and listen up. There are so many things Winston could vote against Bill English on. So pretty much any bill that goes before the house has to go past Winston first for the OK. Neither Laboir nor National have the political power to put ligslation through. So stick around.
Could people please use some sense and quit this blue/green line? Yes, you can be conservative and a conservationist but THIS National govt has an incredibly bad record on issues that should be tantamount to any blue/green worth their salt (“swimmable rivers” anyone?????).
Swimmible rivers, and dying under trucks that now grick our roads?
National = equal to killing fields.
+100 Great Post …well said!…and Winston NZF has far more in common with Labour and the Greens than it does with Nactional
( Nactional on Election night, despite the positive spin and smiles and attempt at command, was looking tired imo and knew defeat was inevitable).
Winston has been attacking Nactional relentlessly while in Opposition..one of the most effective of the Opposition .
People voting for NZF had “had enough” of Nactional ! They want a change of Government…away from this Nact government!
James Shaw’s Election night speech was brilliant…the Greens can work with NZF!
A Labour , NZF , Green coalition government could be a power house towards reclaiming New Zealand … political and economic sovereignty, grassroots egalitarian social welfare and justice for New Zealanders for housing and health and education… and a future for New Zealand children and their environment…a rethink on NZ water use (and no more NZ water sent overseas)
( and a Labour , NZF, Green coalition government would have a good mix of leadership : a woman , elder statesman experience, youth and enthusiasm)
…and Maori leadership from Maori seats !
( imo this is one concession Winston NZF will have to make ….Maori Seats …it is NOT worth dying in the ditch over…until Maori want to relinquish their special Maori seats they should remain…)
Both National and NZ First will have to consider whether increasing the number of wealthy Chinese into our population will increase the high rate of inequality in New Zealand.
Also, should China refuse to seriously reign in its ally North Korea, would our Allies continue to protect our anti Nuclear stand in the Pacific ?
Would Chinese living here in New Zealand, support China and North Korea in any confrontation – and ignore New Zealand’s Military policies?
China has incredible Wealth and incredible Power. New Zealand doesn’t.
Our Parliament and Politicians have not so far shown any Prudence. Have they?
They have fattened the wallet of the National Party. And we know the National Party will fatten them handsomely in return. I wonder why !
I can’t see that Winston can in good faith go with National after all his campaigning about loss of sovereignty and immigration levels. With the information now available about the Chinese government activity in NZ and deep involvement with the Nats (and to a lesser extent Labour), he would be selling his soul to sup with the devil.
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/for_website_magicweaponsanne-mariesbradyseptember2017.pdf
Time for Labour/Greens/NZF to claim NZ back for New Zealanders ?
That’s an attractive analysis Martyn. Watch the National Party and its Larry Williams cohort go dog on MMP and start faux screeching about breach of constitutional convention.
The more I think about it I can’t see Winston being Sir Les Patterson to Dame Edna English. He has to protect his mana as a true phenomenon in New Zealand politics. Surely he wouldn’t waste it for a wooden erection ?
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