BREAKING: New Roy Morgan Poll – Nats 40% (down 2.5), Labour 39.5 (up 7), Greens 9, NZF 6 (down 5.5)

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
19
1

Latest Roy Morgan Poll

 

  • National 40% (down from 42.5)
  • Labour 39.5% (up from 32.5)
  • Greens 9% (no change)
  • NZ First 6% (down from 11.5)
  • Maori Party 2.0% (up from 1.5)
  • ACT Party 0.5% (no change)
  • Conservatives 0.5% (up from 0)
  • Other 2.5% (no change)

It shows NZ First plummeting – and after the train wreck interview Winston had with Guyon Espiner, it’s likely NZ First will be less Kingmaker and more Doorkeeper in any new Government.

Somewhere Matthew Hooton, Ben Thomas, David Farrar, Michelle Boag, Cameron Slater, Simon Lusk and Jordan Williams are all silently rocking and sobbing in a  group pity hug.

 

 

 

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19 COMMENTS

  1. “Somewhere Matthew Hooton, Ben Thomas, David Farrar, Michelle Boag, Cameron Slater, Simon Lusk and Jordan Williams are all silently rocking and sobbing in a group pity hug”

    Lol I hope so !!

    • Importance: High

      HORIZON POLL – LAST POLL BEFORE NZ ELECTION IN SEVEN DAYS

      Subject: Among those who are registered, have made up their minds and will definitely vote, National has 38.5% support.Labour has 38.2%.New Zealand First has 9.8%, the Green Party 7.7%.

      https://www.horizonpoll.co.nz/page/477/main-partie

      HORIZON POLL
      INCORPORATING SHAPENZ

      YOU ARE HERE
      Home : Research Results : Main parties in dead heat

      Research Results
      Main parties in dead heat

      16 Sep 17

      Credit: Radio NZ

      Nothing between the main parties with 8 days to go …
      National and Labour are almost dead even in the latest Horizon party vote poll.

      Among those who are registered, have made up their minds and will definitely vote, National has 38.5%support.

      Labour has 38.2%.

      New Zealand First has 9.8%, the Green Party 7.7%.

      If this level of support is achieved by NZ First then it will be able to decide which main party governs.

      ACT has 1.4% which could also be significant in deciding which main party governs. If ACT’s leader wins the Epsom electorate, on these results ACT would have two MPs and enable a National-New Zealand First-ACT coalition.

      Alternatively, on these results a Labour-Green-NZ First coalition could govern.

      The poll of 846 registered voters was taken between September 9 and 14.

      It is weighted by age, gender and region to ensure it represents the New Zealand adult population at the last census. At a 95% confidence level, the maximum margin of error for the decided voter sample is +/- 3.4%.

      The result mirrors poll of polls results showing the main parties in a close race in the last week of the election campaign.

      Expected and preferred coalition leader

      Overall, 59% of decided voters are expecting Labour to lead a coalition government if one is needed. 41% expect National would lead it.

      Asked who they would prefer to lead a coalition, 53% say Labour, 47% National.

      Voting by gender and age

      Women are a significant driver of Labour’s support in this poll and since the change to Jacinda Ardern as leader.
      42% of women voters support Labour, 33% National.

      National is stronger among men: 44% to 34% for Labour.

      By age, Labour’s strongest support is coming from those aged 18-34.

      52% of definite voters aged 18-24 support, Labour, 25% National.

      47% of those aged 25-34 support Labour, 32% National.

      The parties each have 32% of those aged 35-44 years.

      National has more support among those aged 45+.

      Among those 65+ National has 52%, Labour 29%.

      Seats

      Assuming the Maori Party and ACT each win one electorate seat, these results would give parties this number of seats in Parliament:

      ACT 2
      Green Party 10
      Labour 47
      Maori Party 1
      National 48
      NZ First 12

      The survey complies with Research Association New Zealand’s political polling code.

      A Roy Morgan poll published on September 15 also finds the parties neck and neck.
      The National Business Review covers the Horizon poll and radio interview here.

      Your comments are welcome at Horizon’s Facebook page.

      For further information, please contact Grant McInman, Manager, Horizon Research, e-mail gmcinman@horizonresearch.co.nz, telephone +64 21 0762040

      https://thestandard.org.nz/roy-morgan-shows-the-nats-have-been-targeting-the-wrong-place/

      DSpare12
      16 September 2017 at 9:07 am
      There is also this Horizon poll out today:
      Among those who are registered, have made up their minds and will definitely vote, National has 38.5% support.Labour has 38.2%.New Zealand First has 9.8%, the Green Party 7.7%.
      https://www.horizonpoll.co.nz/page/477/main-partie
      They are also claiming that because ACT is on 1.4% it; “would have two MPs and enable a National-New Zealand First-ACT coalition”. Which seems unlikely even though mathmatically possible. I have no idea what the margin or error is down there, but it wouldn’t take many tenths of a percent drop to push ACT below the two MP threshold (plus Seymour isn’t guaranteed to win Epsom).
      The main conclusion I’ve reached from political polling this election is; the only reliable result is that each polling company’s different methods will produce different results. Only a week to go till we can assess them against reality.

    • And vice versa for the bunch of toadies having to hug Michelle Boag Actually, the more you repeat her surname, the more visits to the toilet you need.

  3. This is a worry

    ‘Nearly 250,000 young Kiwis yet to enrol’

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/338383/nearly-250-000-young-kiwis-yet-to-enrol

    “With polling day fast approaching, nearly a quarter of a million younger voters are yet to enrol, according to figures from the Electoral Commission…

    As of 23 August, 246,498 people aged 18-29 had not yet enrolled – 30 percent of the almost 800,000 eligible voters in that age group.

    The figures are in stark contrast to the over-70s, where 97 percent of the 483,270 have enrolled.

    Political parties on all sides of the spectrum are keen to tap into the potential missing younger voters might offer.

    That was last seen in Britain’s snap election in June when the ‘youth quake’ restored the country’s Labour Party to a credible opposition, defying the pollsters and astounding pundits.

    Green Party youth spokesperson Julie-Anne Genter said it was trying to reach as many disenfranchised young people as possible.

    “Whether that’s using social media, going and speaking at high schools and university campuses … and I’m certainly spending a lot more time trying to get my head around Snapchat.”

    National Party campaign chair Steven Joyce said it was also using social media as a key tool to attract younger voters, even if it meant the party was sometimes given a hard time for it.

    “We often get wound up a little bit for trying too hard to be on Facebook and Snapchat, but it’s actually really important.”

    The Young Nats were also important in reaching out to younger voters, he said.

    Māori aged 18-29 have the lowest voter turnout in the country and needed to be addressed, Māori Party co-leader Marama Fox said.

    But encouraging all the missing voters to be engaged with politics would require a long term strategy.

    “I don’t think we’re going to be able to pull those voters out to vote in the three weeks we have left. We must do more in this country or else they’re going to be completely disengaged from our future.”

    Younger people who did not vote were more likely to continue being non-voters as they got older, she said.

    Figures from the Electoral Commission show the number on the electoral roll is higher than at this stage in 2014, and 16,694 voters aged 18-29 enrolled during August. It expected another big jump before election day.

    Labour Party campaign manager Andrew Kirton believed Jacinda Ardern and the party’s youth-focused policies were galvanising younger voters.

    “Young people are excited about the message that Jacinda brings and we really hope they will get out and vote.”

    Only 62 percent of under 30s who enrolled last election actually cast their vote, compared with 85 percent of enrolled 60-65 year olds.

    Youth engagement organisation RockEnrol is trying to improve turnout by encouraging people to cast their vote early.

    Green Party candidate Chloe Swarbrick, 23, says many young voters are struggling to see the relevance of politics to their everyday lives.

    “I think a lot of disconnected, disengaged people, are not making the connection between the different policies that parties are putting foward and tangible impacts on their everyday life.”

    Ms Swarbrick, who is standing in Maungakiekiem said young people care about issues like access to decent housing, jobs and education but struggle to see the importance of broader concepts like the state of the economy.

    Another of the younger candidates, National’s Simeon Brown, who’s standing in Pakuranga, told Morning Report politicians needed to make an effort to engage with young people on issues that matter to them – but young people also had to take personal responsibility.

    “We live in a democracy and that’s a privilege .. that means we’ve actually got to take responsibility of that as young people … to enrol and then cast a vote”

  4. Greens 9% (no change)
    NZ First 6% (down from 11.5)

    Two things…

    1. This is now the third poll that has NZ First on 6%. (Only the Horizon poll has them higher, at 9.8% – an unfeasibly high number.) Any lower, and Winston Peters’ Northland electorate becxomes critical to his party’s survival.

    And as much as I do not trust Peters, it would not be to this country’s benefit to see NZ First out of Parliament.

    2. Are the Greens on 9%? A group of us were on a stall at the Lower Hutt Rivermarket and except for a handful of cosy, comfy Middle Classers (who couldn’t seem to understand how beneficiaries lived during the Ruthenasia period of welfare cuts), there seemed a surprisingly amount of good will toward the Green Party. I was pleasantly surprised.

    Many had already voted and many said they had voted strategically along a Green/Labour split.

    I’ve no doubt that the Greens will return to Parliament and I may have to revise – upward – my guess at their voting percentage.

  6. This proves to me, it is neck to neck, nothing is safe yet, but we can say, the Reid poll presented by overly excited Paddy Gower was out of the now observable trend line.

    Greens will get their former voters back, and they will most likely get well over 5 percent, perhaps reach back close to 8 or ten percent.

    Winston First will perhaps end up with eight percent, remember they tend to get more votes than polls suggest.

    National will be really worried.

    We are likely to see a change of government, but I worry about a change in policy, real change, not tinkering around the edges, which Labour may try to get away with.

    • … ” Greens will get their former voters back, and they will most likely get well over 5 percent, perhaps reach back close to 8 or ten percent ” …

      I think they will , just quietly…

      • @ Wild Katipo … yes, the Greens are beginning to gain traction quite nicely again, just in time to cruise over the line hopefully.

        This time next week we should be celebrating a Labour/Green government. However, can’t get too complacent, still work to be done for our side, right up until the ballot box closes.

        #Let’s do this …

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