LATEST ROY MORGAN POLL: National 42.5% Labour 32.5% Green 9% NZ First 11.5%

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
23
1

The latest Roy Morgan Poll backs up the trend for Labour to grow, but not the horrific meltdown of the Greens…

In mid-August support for incumbent National is 42.5% (down 0.5%), still marginally in front of a potential Labour/Greens coalition on 41.5% (down 2.5%).
  • Labour’s prospects of governing after next month’s election have been boosted with Labour’s support up 2% to 32.5% following Jacinda Ardern’s rise to the Labour leadership at the start of August – the highest support for Labour for nearly a year.
  • However, Greens support is down 4.5% to 9% after the welfare fraud scandal involving Greens co-leader Metiria Turei cost the leader her job a week ago.
  • Winston Peters appears to be the largest beneficiary of the Greens troubles with New Zealand First increasing their support by 3.5% to 11.5% – now with greater support than the Greens for the first time since the 2005 Election when New Zealand First formed Government in coalition with Labour under former Prime Minister Helen Clark.
  • New Zealand First is now in prime position to repeat the 2005 Election outcome and install Jacinda Ardern as New Zealand’s youngest Prime Minister since Edward Stafford in 1856 or choose whether current PM Bill English wins an election in his own right for the first time.
  • Overall support for the governing National-led coalition was down 1% to 44.5% with support for National’s coalition partners down slightly: Maori Party on 1.5% (unchanged), Act NZ on 0.5% (down 0.5%) and United Future on 0%.
  • Support for the parties currently outside Parliament was unchanged at 2.5% with 2% support for newcomer The Opportunities Party (TOP).

…it is a reminder that this election will be incredibly close and there is everything to play for.

Labour strategists have got to focus on the impact of National’s possible coalition partners in United Future and in the Maori Party. Without closing both of them off, there is a chance National can cobble together a Government.

TOP better try and get Kennedy Graham to stand for them in Epsom.

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23 COMMENTS

  1. National at 42.5%, a new low and this far out from election day, are now in decent mode and should everything now remain relatively steady with the left, the Nats will hit the 30’s.

    Notwithstanding any further own goals there is definitely a mood for change from a cautious voting public, who are no longing buying the “Rockstar” economy bullshit!

    • “Rockstar” XRAY!!!!

      That’s the same bullshit SS Joyce engineered to pull the wool over our eyes back in 2010, and since then we have seen our water quality turn toxic, and industry shrink away – to either close down or re-locate overseas!!!!

      To many here to name, but also others who said they would leave it we don’t bail them out with taxpayers funds;

      Warner bros,
      Aluminum smelter,
      America’s cup boat racing,
      Cadbury,
      Big oil,
      Insurance industry, AIG,
      Lots more—–

      We did not have a “Rockstar economy”—- just one we subsidised!@!!!!!

    • Celebrity outrage culture trying to link Metiria to poor economic performance just to get their name out there and push the Marx narrative is a big fucking yawn.

  2. “Winston Peters appears to be the largest beneficiary of the Greens troubles”..yeah, nah.
    I think Winston is benefiting from the aging of the baby boomers, who are becoming more reactionary and defensive every day…

    • There’s many a boomer in the Greens Siobhan, and we are grumpy. Grumpy because of thirty plus years of neolib shit.

  3. A big yes Martyn,

    “New Zealand First is now in prime position to repeat the 2005 Election outcome and install Jacinda Ardern as New Zealand’s youngest Prime Minister since Edward Stafford in 1856”

    Greens are good for a backup party with some extra issues they may bring to the table.

    James Shaw strikes me as a level headed character to deal fairly without any unreasonable policies, as he does have a background in finance and the overseas business market.

    Winston as our foreign minister under Helen Clark’s Government 2005.

    Like they said before the last election “a Government in waiting” so it’s about time this time.

  5. Roy Morgan is the least reliable poll. I wouldn’t put too much stock in this one. Looks to be out of date too.

    • Actually, it’s one of the more reliable ones. They poll cellphone owners whereas other polling companies do not.

      According to the 2013 Census 14.5% of households do not have access to a landline. They rely solely on cellphones. This includes poverty-stricken families and indivuals as well as transients, such as students.

      https://fmacskasy.wordpress.com/2013/12/12/census-surveys-and-cellphones-part-rua/

      As such, polling landline and cellphone owners is more reflective of voters than just landline owners.

      • Frank
        During the run up to the UK election pollsters discounted a different percentages of answers they got from young eligible voters to try to account for the habitual low turnout of this age group on election day. Different pollsters applied different “corrections”.
        Do you happen to know if pollsters here are doing the same?
        David J S

  6. Looking good. Hopefully Labour can maintain their momentum. If English fucks up the debates or comes across as creepy/sleazy, which he does for me (still not as bad as Simon Bridges though – >>shudder<<), and Adern manages to look Prime Ministerial (i.e. people can see her as a viable PM), then we may finally see an end to National… well unless Winston does a Winston and decides to support National (which on balance, he is probably going to do). Without Metiria giving the sort of charismatic personality the party needs, I just don't see them as part of the next government.

  7. Bomber, why haven’t any of the mainstream media reported this poll? I’ve even emailed and texted some of them. They have a duty to be balanced. The massive changes in the preceding Colmar Brunton poll is a story in itself.

  8. The thing about having co-leaders who take different policy directions while competing for the same voting block. Both decline so I hope these poll results are instructive.

  9. I ENCOURAGE everyone who wants to change this rotten government to:

    1 – Step away from the computer

    2 – Go out and campaign. Whether it’s Labour, The Greens, or Mana, I don’t give a rats. Just pick one and do it.

    3 – There is no #3. That’s it; go out and help.

    Because as sure as evolution made li’l green apples, if we don’t do our bit to help, we will get Bill English for our next prime minister.

    And people will die.

    A well-known homeless man who had a cheeky smile and lovable nature died on a bench in an Auckland cemetery.

    Keith Johnson, died aged 57 on the same bench he had sat on most days for the past four years in St Peter’s cemetery in Onehunga on July 1.

    ref: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/94570247/homeless-man-died-on-the-bench-he-called-home

    The long wait for cancer surgery may be killing some southern patients, Labour Health spokesman David Clark says.

    Clark has spoken out after Radio New Zealand revealed 10 prostate cancer patients at Dunedin Hospital had to wait seven months for urgent surgery which was meant to be done within a month.

    The 10 patients were just the tip of the iceberg, Clark said.

    ref: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/94570247/homeless-man-died-on-the-bench-he-called-home

  10. Remember Jacinda’s mantra, “Let’s do this”

    “I’m going to be ruthlessly positive” she said and she is!!!

    Sending hope for change and a Labour Green government!!!

    Going by her speeches and stand ups Jacinda will debate well.

    Roll on the 23rd. enrol & vote.

  11. So this seems to suggest that ‘disastrous’ TV1 poll out the other night was somewhat out of the ordinary, not that representative, same as they once also had the Maori Party at 4 percent.

    I trust the Greens will be back in Parliament, perhaps only with 8 to 10 percent, but after the last few weeks they will be glad to get that. If they run a passionate, underdog type campaign though, they may be well above ten percent after all.

    James needs to show the whole team, get all candidates, the young ones especially, involved, and before the cameras and public meetings. Leaving the leader to do the main job will not serve the Greens, be a team, show you are a team, and that you are fighting, dear Greens.

    • Yeah. Its almost as if TV1 helped vilify Meteria Turei, caused a drop in support for the Greens and then jumped in with an exaggeratedly bad poll to amplify the effect. Have they been taking lessons from the pro Hillary American media? Oh and on another note I see the NZ defence force has sent people to the US war games in Korea to help provoke more instability there. Got to have a good safe National Government in power to make sure this sort of shit carries on.

      • Yes Ian,

        I am stunned by this government, it seems now to want to go to war don’t you agree?

        MAYBE THEY ARE HOPING SOMETHING LIKE A WAR WILL COME ALONG TO SAVE THEM AT NEXT MONTH’S ELECTION BY MANUFACTURING A “DIVERSION”???

        • Yes. Just like the South Korean Prime Minister, who called for no more Thad Missiles and a diplomatic solution to the North Korean disagreement, the NZ Government seems unable to resist US pressure to support it in its aggression. China has said it will not support North Korea if it attacks first but will support them if the US strikes first. That’s diplomacy. Simulating the invasion of North Korea in order to humiliate them or goad them into a reaction, that is what the NZ National Government is supporting.

  13. Yes Ian,

    I am stunned by this government, it seems now to want to go to war don’t you agree?

    MAYBE THEY ARE HOPING SOMETHING LIKE A WAR WILL COME ALONG TO SAVE THEM AT NEXT MONTH’S ELECTION BY MANUFACTURING A “DIVERSION”???

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