Newshub Poll – National 44.4% Labour 33.1% BZ First 9.2% Green 8.3%

By
Martyn Bradbury
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50
1

Latest Newshub Poll is out, it shows Labour under Jacinda storming back into rude health…

…but here’s the caution. The vast majority of Labour’s gain is at the expense of NZ First and the Greens, Jacinda was only able to pull .8% away from National, and that should be a major worry.

Jacinda should be appealing to female National voters, ones who voted for Key, and former Helen Clark National voters in a far larger way than this Poll is suggesting.

Also, the Greens tactic to try and win over the Beneficiary non-vote won’t appear in a mainstream landline poll like this so their drop won’t be as perilous as this poll suggests.

Don’t get me wrong, this is a great start for Labour and Jacinda should feel a lot of pride in this result, but the Opposition are still cannibalising its vote, they are not bringing in enough none vote, undecided voters or National voters.

This is going to be a close election.

 

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50 COMMENTS

  1. There will come a time to celebrate. After the harvest. When all the badly needed hard work, which there is many is completed.

    FYI. If you take out the margin of error lower. National are weak, and there support parties deserve the decimation and lamination that should have been directed at National instead of Mets.

  4. A lot of shit going down to confuse this picture. No reason for NZF to have fallen away that much and I don’t believe it. Wait for a few more polls after the dust settles.
    D J S

    • Too much other shit going down to allow Winston to get a lot of air time on Bill’s deleted texts and by extension is the Prime Minister honest.

  6. I don’t believe that National are on 44.4 %.
    My polling has them on 41.5% and N.Z First on 14%.
    National are headed in to the 30’s…

        • There is at least a 6% drop to what National get on election night compared to the opinion polls. So Grant is right.

          • 100% Grant

            National is so worried they are attacking in Parliament like dogs towards any other political party now.

            That shows they are desperate.

            I sense here, they have shown today 10/8/17 they feel a whiff of failure now, that come 6 weeks they will be out of a job.

            Good luck to bad rubbish.

    • Agree 100% Grant the polls are like our unemployment stats unreliable and prone to manipulation and it is easy to do this as it depends on the process used to gather the information and what is being asked. The problem is too many NZers trust our mainstream media when really there has and never will be balanced reporting in our country.

      • Mark,

        I’m glad you asked me to share my methodology with you.
        Here it is in brief format…..

        Firstly : It is important to establish as wide a range of opinions as possible.
        This is done by dividing the country into 4 parabolic curves.
        The series of lines used to create each parabolic curve are not dissimilar to ‘ley lines’ used in ancient times.
        The wide end of each curve are then joined together giving a spider-web effect but with a bigger hole in the middle .
        The hole represents Cook Strait.
        Dots are placed along all the lines and numbered. The numbers are then collated , mixed and drawn ,very much like Lotto.
        2000 are then selected for the poll questions.
        Cell phone or landline contact is irrelevant due to the randomness created by the thoroughness of the selection and mixing process.

        Secondly: Unlike other polls our poll questions are all specially formulated by 3 Registered Psychologists from different Universities ,(to avoid bias), and to make sure that there is no shred of ambiguity to the question or questions being asked, as the case may be .

        Thirdly: Once we have the information we disseminate it and cross check for accuracy . If we do the more advanced GEP poll used to extrapolate and predict overall outcomes, we use a complex series of cross- over algorithms to achieve a result with a stunning margin of era of only half a percent.
        When we predict outcomes many considerations come into play. The obvious ones for example would be the type of policies resonating with voters , to the more obscure such as the change of pitch in a politicians voice when answering a certain type of question etc. Special audiologists are brought in for the analysis.

        I realise this is a once over lightly . I can’t give away too much more as this has taken along time to develop, but I hope this has helped enlighten you a little .

        P.S Our GEP results for election night are currently showing…..

        Labour 41%
        National 35%
        N.Z First 12%
        Greens 8%

        ……

        • This sounds very interesting, Grant – a double size sample vs. the 850-1,000 which are conventionally employed. Given all the other methodological features you mention here, it seems likely to produce a robust snapshot, which would in turn suggest that the trended results would be no less interesting. May I ask, do you publish this anywhere? It sounds like something I’d like to follow and check out more often! If not, perhaps you ought to send in a guest article for TDB. It sounds like you’ve really got something going on here.

          • Thanks for your interest Cemetery Jones.
            I will be continually publishing my findings via my comments on the various Blog Writers articles when the subject of polls arises as the election campaign unfolds.
            Keep an eye out for our new audio/ psycho analysis .
            Our new software gives us forecast accuracy never before seen….

  7. So what’s the undecided vote?
    Gotta’ be more than the 0.8% unaccounted for by those figures, surely??
    Someone please explain if I’m interpreting this poll incorrectly.

      • Not sure what you mean in that second sentence. Undecideds are typically 15-20% from memory. There seems to be a trend in recent years to refrain from mentioning them during the media reporting of a political poll.

    • This is actually the MOST important stat, I’d think.

      How can you interpret the data without knowing how many people don’t know which party they want to vote for yet. How can you know if -for example – Labour IS actually taking votes off the Greens or are people who weren’t sure have now decided to vote Labour? Or people who had discounted Labour pre Jacinda are now deciding between them and Greens/NZ First/ National?

      I suspect this is why they no longer include Undecides as it is easier for propaganda/horse race purposes. Also why polls are no longer very reliable

      • In primary school kids get taught to round up. Well in the commercial world if you round up a bag of chips (for example) will have a little bit less in it and that is fraudulent behaviour. So in the commercial world rounding errors are rounded down to the lower whole number. For that reason you subtract the margin of error away from a parties total%. Looking through this lense and the minor parties looks insignificant and Gower power agrees.

  8. “The Herald can also reveal leaked results from the latest UMR poll, which finished today. That shows Labour has surged from 23 per cent a fortnight ago to 36 per cent. Support for the Green Party collapsed from 15 per cent to 8 per cent.

    In the UMR poll support for New Zealand First dropped from 16 to 8 per cent. National went up 1 per cent to 43 per cent.”

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11901065

    God that new Herald set up is hard to navigate. Give me the old one anytime.

  9. It might be a worry the small % coming from National to Labour but absolutely no surprise.

    A big splurge could come out with proof positive of Bill English being actively involved in seeking to get rid of Barclay, of clearly being complicit in illegalities in that and standing lying blatantly to the public about it. If everyone knew about that it would dismissed and strengthen his support because he was being picked on.

    These were the supporters of a PM who if he savaged a baby with a carving knife on the steps of Parliament would’ve screamed for the babe’s parents to be locked away for child abuse for taking the kid to Wellington and sought a knighthood for the perpetrator for precision carving.

  10. I do not like this, while it may be positive, for the alternative, we will not have a changed government, we will perhaps have a change of government, no more.

    The business and other interests will simply not allow true change.

    • There is a Live stream on Tame Iti’s Facebook page from a Maori Party gathering in Tamaki I believe only the crowds where distinctly Asian in origin which lift me wondering how many of them are on the Maori roll?

      Crack up really. Maori Party chasing the mainstream vote while being a kaupapa maori party apparently.

      Rip Māori Party. May Te Ururoa’s rain be short and sweet.

  12. The power of the media.

    A week of positive coverage of Ardern sees her and her party’s ratings soar. Whereas, a week of negative coverage for the Greens leads to a dive in the polls.

  13. If you want National votes, you have to ask for them.
    Pitch to the habitual blue voters who are actually red in their heart.
    Ask for their help to make a better, fairer and cleaner New Zealand.
    If you don’t ask, you don’t get.

    While they are doing that, they can also ask for the young votes.

    And even ask the vote of farmers who care about the rivers flowing through their land as it runs to the sea, why not. We want EVERYONE. Dealing with our own prejudice: that’s on us.

    If you don’t ask, you don’t get.

  14. I predict that in one month Labour will be tied with National or bloody close in the early 40s.

    We still have the campaign ahead and policy to be released.

    Labour to win and have authority in the parliament must take votes from the National party as National did in 2008.

    Kelvin will be instrumental in bringing Maori back to the fold eliminating the Maori party as a support partner for National and English has already turned his back on them.

    Yeah Martyn it will be bloody close and on a knife edge…….just the way Winston likes it.

    • I don’t belong in NZF Party but must honestly say that i have seen a lot of their policies and am suitably impressed with them as DEFINITELY very environmentally balanced.

      We need a party like this to balance the left side of the ledger.

      I was a green member during Rod Donald’s time 1999-2002 when the Green Party was purely focused on the environment.

  15. I thinki it (Labour’s poll increase) is significant.

    I was looking at Jeremy Corbyn’s rise in the polls and this was a slow 3 points up, one or two down………………..

    We were never going to be able to form a progressive govt with Labour on 24%……………….Hold tight. I believe it is a good sign

  16. almost 1% from the first couple of days isn’t to be sniffed at…am sure there’ll be a goodly number waiting to see where a JA Labour is heading before jumping ship…and it doesn’t need many.

  17. Whats with this recent leaking of UMR polls? Are we going to see National’s David Farrar leak Curia poll results too? This is all pretty dodgy if you ask me.

  18. I didn’t think it was a bad effort for the first week. I wonder what the polls will show after another six?

  19. Let’s remember that this poll is from a single week of field work. Pretty sure it’s usually two weeks. While there is some validity in how close the UMR from the same period came in, it’s a cautious good start and the next wave of results will be interesting.

  20. The Big Question is, did Labour gain because of voter opposition to Metiria? Or because of the “Jacinda Effect”?

    If its the latter, Metiria did not negatively influence the polls!

  21. Question(s) should be
    How much NZF freaked and went back to National
    As well as those who went to Labour

    If a considerable portion went to National
    Then a considerable portion of National have similarly moved to Labour +1

    My dad was an accountant, use your brains guys

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