The 3 big take aways from latest TVNZ Poll

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
8
1

The 3 big take aways from the latest TVNZ Poll are

1: NZ First has been blunted and isn’t taking votes away from Labour. If this massive transfer of voters away from Labour to NZ First because of Metiria’s announcement was actually happening it would have shown up – it didn’t.

2: 1 point of the Green rise came from the missing million, if they focus on expanding that they have the potential to be 15%+ on election day.

3: The importance of National’s allies – Maori Party, United and ACT will be crucial for National to win without Winston. Watch for Wiariki, Ohariu and Epsom.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR

8 COMMENTS

  1. Yes, I would agree that the Greens managed to attract some interest and support from that missing million, and if they play it right now, they can increase that support to get well over 13 or even 15 percent votes on 23 September. That beneficiary voter base had been ignored over the last three elections, they were in part taken for granted by Labour, that is those that bothered to vote, the rest could not be bothered.

    And NZ First has been caught out a bit, between the rhetoric coming from Winston, trying to attract disgruntled rural voters in the regions, but anti immigration talk is not addressing a priority concern there, it is more so in Auckland.

    Farmers and many other voters in the regions tend to vote National, and only some will choose to go New Zealand First next time. So there is limited potential only for Winston and his party.

    His referendum talk about getting rid of Maori seats may turn a fair few Maori voters off.

    Ultimately the election will be decided in Auckland, I think, and that is where Labour and Greens must do their needed hard work, never mind who will be leader. Repeat the core messages, raise the crucial issues, state clearer policy, and drum it into the voters that change is needed, as National and their support parties have left us a huge mess here.

    The housing issue alone is major:
    http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/336143/akl-housing-builds-fall-well-short-of-target

    The party vote is more important than ever.

    • 100% HC.

      Now it is up to all those PM’s of each party to get out there and encourage the electorate to buy into their policies whoever they are.

      They are paid from the taxpayer purse and it is their role to get out and work to keep their job.

      Yes it is important to have community support to knock on doors also but those MP’s must lead the charge.

  2. Yes about right Martyn.

    NZ First was always aiming to take votes from National swing voters not from the left.

    There was also a 19% in that latest TVNZ one poll that were undecided!!!

    That unknown dynamic will actually show the path of the most interest to all observers going forward.

    What has become clear, is in what you state that a win for the left is more likely from the three opposition parties Labour/green/NZ First against the four others on the right National/Act/United first/Maori party.

    TOP is positioned itself to the right also now, but we don’t know if they would reach the 5% to qualify as part of the right block to become yet another “five headed monster”.

  5. re “NZ First has been blunted”…I dont think so

    ….NZF has always come in from behind on Election Day

    ….the Polls never get it right on NZF

    …Maybe NZF voters don’t or won’t answer Polls ( there needs to be a Poll on this)…they like the surprise element

    • Heh … I think the truth is NZ First are siphoning off the soft Nat voters…

      Hehehe… go for it , Winnie !!!

      Greens are making headway because of their social policy’s and Labour will be the benefactor by association with the Greens and Labours stance on raising the minimum wage – and looking to introduce the Living Wage.

      And we all know that Labour hits harder during the election than before it.

Comments are closed.