THOMAS MULCAIR wanted to be Prime Minister – and he thought he knew how to make it happen. His New Democratic Party (NDP) was the leading Opposition contender in a Canada grown weary of Stephen Harper’s brutal Conservative Government. More importantly, the formerly dominant Liberal Party had been reduced to a risible rump of just 36 MPs in the Canadian House of Commons. Its leader, Justin Trudeau, may have been blessed with a famous political name, but was widely dismissed as a pretty playboy who knew a lot more about snowboarding that he did about grown-up politics. Thomas Mulcair was far from being the only Canadian convinced that the 2015 General Election was the NDP’s for the taking.
But that’s not how the story ended. Determined to present both himself and the NDP as sensible and responsible, Mulcair prevailed upon his party colleagues to jettison any and all policies likely to scare the Canadian establishment’s horses. Canada’s equivalent of the NZ Labour Party promised “budget responsibility” – with bells on. Public spending would be kept in check and surpluses fattened. “Nothing to be frightened of here”, was Mulcair’s message to the people he thought he had to please to win. That was the point at which Justin Trudeau demonstrated that he was a great deal more than just a pretty face.
Mulcair’s decision to steer the NDP sharply to the right of its traditional position on the centre-left had opened up a dangerous amount of unoccupied ideological space. If Mulcair was willing to make his peace with neoliberalism, then Trudeau was prepared to lead his party into a passionate Keynesian embrace. With interest rates at record lows, Government borrowing would never be cheaper. The Liberals would give Canada’s economy the much-needed shot in the arm that Harper’s austerity programme had forsworn. Health, education and infrastructure would be the big winners. The Liberals, said Trudeau, were the only political party who understood that more of the same was unacceptable. Oh yeah – and they were ready to legalise marijuana!
Outflanked, out-argued and out-bid, Mulcair watched helplessly as the NDP’s poll-numbers dwindled and the Liberal Party’s popularity surged. Policy audacity was made palatable by Trudeau’s relentlessly sunny disposition. The clouds of gloom parted, and by the time the last ballot paper was counted the “pretty playboy” had rewritten Canada’s political rulebook. Not only had the Liberal’s driven the NDP into third place, they had won an absolute parliamentary majority. It was a comeback without precedent in Canadian history.
Trudeau’s historic 2015 election victory is a cautionary tale which New Zealand’s Labour leader would do well to study closely. There is still time for Andrew Little to halt his party’s relentless march towards the political centre. Still time to understand that the “something in the air” which Shane Jones talks about is the factor that will determine the outcome of this year’s election. Still time to realise that whatever it is in the political air, it is not a desperate public hunger for more of the same.
There is anger in the air – and that is the harvest which Winston Peters and NZ First are determined to gather in. But the air is also stirring with hope. That’s what the Greens have – at almost the last possible moment – understood. And, just like Justin Trudeau, they are preparing to ride the forgotten New Zealander’s hope for something better all the way to the biggest share of the Party Vote they have ever received.
Thomas Mulcair’s bid to become Canada’s Prime Minister foundered on his strategy of offering his opponents the smallest possible target to shoot at. All he succeeded in doing was reducing the NDP to something so dull and uninspiring that a crucial number of Canadians lost sight of it altogether.
Whatever it was in his country’s political atmosphere in 2015, Justin Trudeau blew out enough of it to inflate the Liberals’ appeal to winning proportions. With Winston exhaling anger, and Metiria Turei breathing hope, Andrew Little and Labour need to offer the New Zealand electorate something more than a deflated ideological balloon.
We want more now, never mind the future, I suppose?
Yes and no. Trudeau has screwed up the Canadian economy and basically pissed all over the people of Alberta – where an awful lot of Canada’s money comes from. Also, he legalised weed, and in doing so got a ton of otherwise disinterested youth vote, which I suspect is actually far more to do with his victory than anything he had to say about climate change or refugees.
Also the loony is pushing up USD/CAD. US dollar falling, all US currency pairs rising. Buy into this less. Hedge out, no over night risk. Hawkish comments from Yellen pouring fuel on the fire. All FTAs with America should be considered for renegotiations. America is dying.
Yeah you can only legalize weed once, he won’t get the vote a second time around. Housing still in crisis of a similar kind to Auckland but worse in BC and spreading on the west coast.
Plus the Khadr affair is going to eat a lot of his centre vote – not simply for giving a terrorist killer compensation so much as to pay him out in secret. No way to know for sure, but it ends up looking like the purpose of that secrecy was to stop his victim’s military widow from using the outcome of her test case to sieze the money.
Legalize al the weed you want and up the foreign aid budget all you want – you can’t financially screw a dead veteran’s widow and have any good come of it. The identity politics of the Quebecois can only get you so far.
Lottery mentality of political instability. Rediculous and amazing at the same time.
Replicating the IT revolution in social media spaces, applying paywalls, also ridiculous and amazing at the same time.
US navy Littoral combate vessel automation, minus 30% crew, also ridiculous and amazing at the same time.
This financial Darwinism breeds nobodies. The type of people pollies like.
If we’re talking about the Zumwalt class, then they look damn cool, but 30% less crew just means 30% less occupants of the underwater tomb that it’ll be if the Americans ever tangle with China, Russia, or Iran – their coastal missile systems are pretty decent.
I recall the maiden voyage of that thing didn’t go so well:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/us-stealth-ship-uss-zumwalt-breaks-down-in-panama-canal/news-story/8afaf0b832cf34def70c1210e75fe209
Those new Lockheed Martin weapons system turned out to be as much of a boondoggle as the ship too – http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/a23738/uss-zumwalt-ammo-too-expensive/
Meanwhile the Admiral Kuznetsov and Pyotr Veliky both still going strong, albeit with emissions to rival those of Al Gore’s mansion…
Correction: (LCS) USS Freedom, ect.
All the more reason why 5th gen high tech platforms will be the last manned platforms. There is a fork towards swarm drones. As well as a push to cut costs of legacy 4.5 gen platforms.
While the F-35 is plagued with software and production errors. The component module have a value unto themselves. Safety vest wearing Generals just don’t know what they have.
Which brings me to cost cutting. Boeing and lockmart have already proven that they can integrate 5th gen commercial off the shelf products into 4.5 gen platforms with out axing staff, e.i. F-15k (K=Republic of Korea Air Force. Also has F-22 radar) for $100 mil each, $50 mil less than the F-22, $150 mil fly away cost per plane (fly away cost according to wiki, does not include training, spares, maintenance). In future cost cutting exercises around 4.5 gen platforms, domestic integration of 4.5 gen platforms, sourcing commercial off the shelf technology at the cheapest possible price then integrating them domestically, reducing fly away costs, while receiving discounts on labour by using domestic military personal to bolt everything together. As well as opportunities to pay military personal above what they receive currently but under commercial rates with associated benefits, weekend end leave, holiday pay, over time, retirement options, ect. Maintaining a skilled labour force, for under the cost of a 4.5 gen platform, is both useful and necessary. And this is one possible fork in 6th gen platforms.
I reckon Labour is stuffed as a political party.
However, I will vote for them in the hope enough other voters will also..
But I know my three adult children will not vote Labour.
This is a generational situation as I see it.
The kids just do not get the name Labour to start with, they were not alive in those times of struggles by the Union movement.
I was and was part of it.
I f Labour are trounced this election they need to consider a new name, and a new story so to try and connect with the under 45 year old bracket.
To keep telling the same old story about how hard we struggled does not resonate any longer.
The modern, educated younger people don’t care about that story, that was in the past as far as they are concerned.
And the uneducated, well they are highly unlikely to even bother voting, mores the pity.
This election is make or break for Labour as far as I am concerned.
FFS popular elections only serve the establishment, nothing ever changes, unless we have revolution:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrRUbGgIXoQ
… ” With Winston exhaling anger, and Metiria Turei breathing hope, Andrew Little and Labour need to offer the New Zealand electorate something more than a deflated ideological balloon. ” …
And therein lies the truth,… that SAS motto… ‘WHO DARES WINS’…. is another way of saying it… this was what Trudeau applied. He applied wisdom in seeing that the people felt corralled and oppressed , then applied the natural remedy… those Keynesian economic principles of borrowing to stimulate the domestic economy… to breathe life and hope in people…
This more than anything else , this social democracy , reinforced by Keynesianism , denying and defying the rigid defines of neo liberal austerity provided hope and contrast…
It is difficult in New Zealand because I believe we are not made of such adventurous stuff as certain nations of the Americas… we seem to be slower to move on an obviously good idea, a little too cautious,… and then we pay the price for that very cautiousness.
I will be voting Labour this election, to flesh out the coalition base, … but sometimes I feel it is more like nursing an invalid back to ruddy good health rather than backing a robust and conquering Duke or Baron…
It is ironic that a junior partner in that coalition has so far surpassed in courage and boldness Labours best efforts, but still Labour has made progress. I see hope in the facilitatory role of Labour.
Mainly between the bold courage of the Greens and Matirias honesty in opening herself up to criticisms by her detractors who wish to defend against their hypocrisy’s, and the aggressive , seasoned and tactical skills of Winston Peters and NZ First.
And yet Labour has not been totally moribund, their policy’s of increasing the minimum wage, of raising that to the Living Wage through the Public sector and then the Private sector compliments the Green party’s breakaway policy’s with welfare reform.
But more could be done.
Yet we have three party’s here eyeing each other up for coalition, which makes the job harder , … Trudeau only had an opposition so makes the contrast easier… if that was simply the case…
And yet , these three party’s have far more in common than they have in dispute, the only main differences is in the extremes of their views. And like an older bigger brother , seems almost as if Labour must mediate… but I must say , in order to give the order to take on the new adventure, Labour needs to show that initiative and lead the way , – or else lose all by shrinking back into its safe zone .
It all points to a new era that Labour must adopt,… either retain its old 1984 neo liberal footing , or admit that time is long past and gone.
My impression is that Justin Trudeau managed to steal the election from a true left wing party with a friendly liberal vibe but since in power has reverted to a more centre right position.
BUT !!!
Canada has first past the post, so vote-swings work differently than here.
And if people keep pushing the notion that Little is a wishy-washy centrist their motives have to be challenged.
Curious as to what on earth you think their motives are. Could it be their motive is to have a Labour Party with a strong transformative set of policies?.
Or maybe a Labour Party that can gather some solid NEW support and membership and activism…a real indicator of being on the right track for Left wing parties.
“to halt his party’s relentless march towards the political centre.”
Oh. Is that what it is? Looks more like slow-jogging on the spot from here…
So who’s up for defining the current political spectrum? From a voter point of view, of course. What exactly are the policies the mythic ‘centre’ is wanting to vote for – either to continue or to introduce?
We don’t know, do we. A forever-shifting target in a high wind.
What to vote for…. I’ll have to check whether our ‘I Side With’ quiz is up. I’ve seen nothing worth voting for so far. This whole ‘wonders ahead’ line is reading as too little too late and more of the same under the purple banner, with those twee little green ribbons, of course.
We aren’t there yet. I don’t want Marc’s revolution but ‘Under New Management’ doesn’t change the menu.
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