Latest Roy Morgan Poll puts Greens/Labour ahead while leaked UMR shows drop


The latest Roy Morgan Poll shows a huge leap for Labour and puts Labour-Green ahead of National…

In July New Zealand’s opposition Labour/Greens has jumped 4.5% to 44% now just ahead of incumbent National on 43% (down 3.5%) following the scandal involving National MP Todd Barclay. However, in New Zealand’s September election the issues of Poverty, Housing and Homelessness and Inequality will be critical to the outcome.

  • The overall support for the governing National-led coalition was down 3.5% to 45.5% with National support down 3.5% to 43% while support for their Coalition partners was unchanged with Maori Party on 1.5%, Act NZ on 1% and United Future on 0%.

  • Support for a potential Labour/Greens alliance was up 4.5% to 44% driven by the 5% rise in support for Labour, now on 30.5%, while support for the Greens was down 0.5% to 13.5%. Support for New Zealand First was down 1% to 8%.

  • Support for the parties currently outside Parliament was unchanged at 2.5%.

…while the homicidal chipmunk of NZ news and current affairs, Patrick Gower, is holding up a leaked UMR poll to spell doom for Labour…

Newshub has been leaked poll results from the company that does Labour’s internal polling which show it is in big trouble, two-and-a-half months out from the election.

The results show Labour is on 26 percent support – crashing from 34 percent in May.

And New Zealand First, for the first time in three years of polling, is no longer the lowest rating party.

Winston Peters and co are on 14 percent – up 5 percent since May – just overtaking the Greens who are on 13 percent.

…last minute Labour vote collapses have occurred in the last 3 elections but the appeal of Jacinda, their strong ground game, the mood for change and Little’s performance in one on one debates will be the deciders for Labour’s final result.


  1. And drope the pop culture memes ok? The left lost the meme wars so please, don’t even try. All those Marvel vs DC memes. Who on earth thought that was cool to confiscate some one else reputation and photo shop Andrew Littles and Jacindas face Over them is like tacky Kardasian T-Shirts. If you wish to transmit sarcasm over the Internet use a gif. Rant over

      • It takes a trained eye to be able to spot these charlatan educators pushing narratives that only make them money. Climbing the social ladder in this way is nothing new, remember how American heiresses in the lead up to WW1 would marry into The British aristocracy? To climb the social ladder, right?

        Well miss appropriating some one else’s reputaion, using cultural capital, to climb the social ladder. Well we know what happened to the sons of the finest stock, the blue bloods, they were all slaughtered on the western front because they where stuck in there stupid class war and couldn’t adapt to evolving threats.

        AUT has built this entire narrative around this kind of assumption that only they can educate. When infact they are the charlatan educators of th finest stock, the blue bloods (and they are, blingle-berries face is all over NZ uni Twitter feeds) and they will all be slaughtered on every front because charlatan educators push stupid class narratives that are unable to adapt to evolving threats.

      • I say, continue to push this, this election. Hell, even look at the last sentence…”However 44% identified themselves as property investors.”

        Source Hauraki Herald e edition

        “Chinese buyers back off until election.
        CRAIG HOYLE AND RICK RE-Uncertainty about immigration and housing policies after the September election has made Chinese property buyers wary. Chinese property buyers are taking a cautious approach as they face an uncertain New Zea-land housing market ahead of September’s general election.Nearly half of those who were considering a property purchase in New Zealand said they were now waiting to see what happened in the next 12 months.Opinions were divided on how the election would impact the housing market, but 45 per cent thought there would be changes depending on which parties formed the next government.The figures were provided from a survey conducted last week by NewZealand’s largest online property portal targeting the Chinese-speaking market.More than 600 Chinese-speaking buyers took part in the survey. It was not clear exactly where respondents were based,but 54 per cent of Hougarden users are from New Zealand.A further 39 per cent are from China (including Hong Kong),while the remaining seven percent are based in other countries.Hougarden managing director Sam Yin said various political parties took different stances on immigration and housing, so it made sense for potential investors to hold off and see who ended up in power.‘‘I think the reason why some buyers want to wait until after the election is the uncertainty about who will lead the country,’’ he said.‘‘The housing market is slowing down before the election,and a lack of confidence will also prevent some buyers from buying properties,’’ he said.Soaring house prices were also identified as a concern by 28 percent of Chinese-speaking buyers,while a further 22 per cent reported difficulties in transfer-ring funds out of China. Amongst the Hougarden respondents, a quarter said they were buying to live in the home.

        However 44% identified themselves as property investors.”

      • Meme wars is what it was known as, and what it has been known as since Trump beat Clinton. It was the Great Meme war. Brexit had elements too. And the right did win. It seems to be that Generation Z is much more right leaning than Generation Y, and their powers of memetic imagery are great.

        The author of that Herald piece didn’t doo too badly for a normie, she got heaps of the language wrong, but gave it a good shot. What she doesn’t really get though is that the Kekistani diaspora has left and right wings, there’s more to it than just the identitarian alt.Right, or that the most interesting part of the phenomena we’ve seen in the Great Meme war is that while the alt.Right isn’t actually the majority of Kekistan, they are a product of their times: the Social Justice Warriors who have pushed their identitarian schemes on them through the school system, through the media, through entertainment industry and mass culture, couldn’t complete that dominance on the internet. And that is where anti-identitarianism grew, but it’s also where the alt.Right grew as the Dorian Grey to progressive identitarianism in the attic of subculture.

  2. Considering that the Roy Morgan results are based on polling cellphone users as well as landlines, that is the one I take interest in.

    The Radio NZ Poll of Polls is also very useful, as it takes all the main polling and averages out the data;

    Does the UMR polling take into account cellphone users? If they do, they make no mention of it here:

    • It needs to be remembered that polling is 100% a business, so it’s in the polling company’s best interests to skew (however they can) their data so both are parties are “in a tight race” or “neck and neck” so that everyone remains invested and interested in both the election (for their customer’s, i.e. the media companies) and the next poll (which they also need to sell as newsworthy). This far out from the election, where no independent verifiable data is available (that only comes to to light after the actual election), they don’t give one whit how “accurate” their numbers are, merely how to string us along to keep us (and especially their customers) excited for the next one.

      • Fair comment NITRUIM,

        Hope because of what Frank says that if they conduct mainly Cell-phone polls we may assume that it is the younger set that are voting?

        If so it is encouraging that they are thinking of the party that is best for our future environmental health?

        As NZ First is now attacking government on:

        1/Running down rail,
        2/Not using wool carpeting in their buildings
        3/Giving away your water,

        All (only amongst many other policies now,) which seems like what the old Green Party policies were before they went to the middle that they used to be campaigning on eh?

  3. The point is National are dropping like a lead balloon and its so very justified.

    Labour now only have to wake up and as best as they can, own the airwaves and social media because their performane to date has been less than good. Andrew, tell it like it is!

    And the Greens, stop being superior middle class wankers, stop putting both your feet in your mouths and remember we need to change this government, please!

  4. Labour,Greens, NZ First now need to get around the table and hatch a working relationship where they look like “a government in waiting NOW PLEASE FOR NZ SAKE!!!!!!!!


  5. The homicidal chipmunk of NZ news and current affairs, Patrick Gower Lol an appropriate description indeed.

  6. With Winston Peters showing his thinking with “Andrew who?… You called him Leader of the Opposition Paddy. I never said that”
    What does that say?
    Plus “Lose 3/4 more points and he won’t be here.”
    Well Well, anyone foolish enough to vote for NZ First over Labour needs to consider the shape of any future government.
    Winston has shown his annoyance here, at a “Johnny come lately”.
    How galling to see a newby pull the Labour group together and refocus. How interesting Winnie picks up a totally neo-lib Jones.
    Winston was trained by Muldoon.
    He has the one liner put downs off pat. He is still Blue imo.
    He sees Andrew Little is honest and caring and therefore a threat to be dealt with.
    Winston wants to be Prime Minister… of which grouping??? Red? Blue?
    That isn’t his game imo.

  7. NZF will pick up a good share of the farmer vote especially with export based growth policies.

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