GUEST BLOG: Robin Westenra – Radio NZ bias in reporting of Larsen C calving

By   /   July 14, 2017  /   47 Comments

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Under its broadcasting standards Radio NZ is supposed to reflect both sides of the argument. It has totally failed to do this and has only reported one side of the argument providing the false impression that it is business-as-usual when it comes to the Antarctic. We are told that calving happens all the time, that this is “normal” – an in this regard I could hardly believe my ears when the Arctic was mentioned. This was not verging on but has crossed the line into climate change denial propaganda.

I woke up this morning to a Facebook message alerting me to the latest headline – something we have been waiting to happen for weeks.

Antarctic iceberg quarter the size of Wales splits from ice shelf

This demonstrates why we need to urgently and globally tackle climate change head on’
Shortly afterwards I found at least half-a-dozen or more similar headlines from around the world.
To check I turned on the 7 am (primetime) RNZ news and nothing, despite the fact that the news had bee out for some hours.
Finally at 7.36 am this appeared on the RNZ website and it featured on the 8 am news, briefly and right at the end of the broadcast.

What I noticed was that they gave prominance to a Prof Helen Fricker, from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography who emphasised (and this could really have been their headline) that THIS IS NOTHING TO DO WITH CLIMATE CHANGE.

The thinning we saw for Larsen A and B – we’re not seeing. And we’re not seeing any evidence for large volumes of surface meltwater on the order of what you would need to hydro-fracture the ice shelf.
“Most glaciologists are not particularly alarmed by what’s going on at Larsen C, yet. It’s business as usual.”
I am perfectly aware of the fact that there is a controversy among scientists on this.
The point with this is that there indeed very important contrary voices such as glaciologist, Dr. Eric Rignot.
Under its broadcasting standards Radio NZ is supposed to reflect both sides of the argument. It has totally failed to do this and has only reported one side of the argument providing the false impression that it is business-as-usual when it comes to the Antarctic.
We are told that calving happens all the time, that this is “normal” – an in this regard I could hardly believe my ears when the Arctic was mentioned.
This was not verging on but has crossed the line into climate change denial propaganda.
Even the print media gave a more honest account that reflected the view that this is serious and reflects dangerous changes in the Antarctica
Glaciologist Professor Eric Rignot previously described the potential loss of the ice sheets, which make up the Antarctic continent, as being “like an eggshell that became too thin“.
 
It’s not going to melt away. It’s going to fracture,” he said.
 
“It’s going to reach a limit beyond which it is not stable.”
and –
Dr Martin O’Leary, a glaciologist who also worked as a part of the MIDAS team, said the shelf is now in a “very vulnerable position“.
 
This is the furthest back that the ice front has been in recorded history,” he said.
Because it is so important  here are two videos made of one of the world’s most authoritative glaciologists, Dr. Erc Rignot.

Robin Westenra is an environmental activist who blogs at Seemorerocks
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47 Comments

  1. WILD KATIPO says:

    Im sure the English were pissed of when they could no longer grow grapes during the medieval warm period as well.

    And then so much for the Berengia theory of species migration as well.

    Do you realize that when Karakatoa blew , – it put 11 square kilometers of dust particles into the atmosphere ? And darkened the sky’s and created abnormality’s in the sunsets and sunrises as far away as England for more than 5 years ?

    Get used to it. The world changes and there’s nothing puny mankind can do about it. If nature says I don’t want a mountain there it’ll remove it.

    You honestly think puny mankinds activity’s are more than a drop in the bucket ? I think you would be better checking out sunspots and decreasing tropical cloud cover to understand climate change.

    Either that or try explaining why the dinosaurs were wiped out and small mammals weren’t. The truth is this planet was once a tropical one and didn’t have ice caps. Nature called and that all changed. Now its got all 4 seasons.

    Sorry about that Martyn but sometimes its just got to be said to provide balance.

    • WILD KATIPO says:

      Oh … and I forgot to mention … when Karakatoa blew … it was the equivalent to more than 100 atomic bombs that were dropped on Hiroshima as well…

      Think on these historic well – recorded – at – the – time facts and we start to get a real picture of nature .

      We are nothing by comparison.

    • CLEANGREEN says:

      Donald Trump announces in France at a joint press conference that he may reconsider his earlier decision to opt out of the Paris climate change accord.

      http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/07/13/trump-macron-hold-joint-news-conference-in-paris-live-blog.html

    • Richard Christie says:

      Balance?

      Sure Wild Katipo, you ensure the fringe 2 – 3% of climate scientists are heard, all in the same of the magical balance fairy.

      While you are at it you can campaign for the rights of Flat Earthers, Moon landing deniers, Young Earthers, HIV causes Aids deniers to be heard and given equal time as well.

    • Historian Pete says:

      Its good to see a contrary opinion on the subject of Climate change. I am neither a confirmer nor a denier. As far as I am concerned the science is not proven either way. I continue to explore and analyse both arguments and unlike others to keep an open mind!!

      • John W says:

        Good approach Pete – BUT a big picture takes a while to check as to it’s reliability while meantime progress has to be made in forming a tentative conclusion to be continually tested and examined.
        It is called the scientific method.

        In matters of massive and complex data a layman has to test and try out lines of reasoning from people and institutions offey with analysis of the data. Often their critics provide pathways to be examined but bearing in mind the history and established interests of the parties on both sides can give a guide to their reliability as much as their flawed logic and erroneous interpretations can.

        Detecting false argument is an interesting area.

        http://barronstestprep.com/blog/identifying-common-flaws-in-arguments/

        http://academic.brooklyn.cuny.edu/geology/leveson/core/topics/logic_flaws/logic_flaws_roll.html

        And there is a lot more.

        Most reporters on scientific matters are confused and miss report in there generalisations and unqualified opinions.

        The bigger picture is what matters but it is built on detail.

        What we would like to see is irrelevant and misguiding.
        Some interesting knock downs and discussions on this site run by a local NZ lad Ken Perrot, retired scientist with a brilliant mind dedicated to his subject area. and science as a discovery vehicle..

        https://openparachute.wordpress.com/

    • Shona says:

      Thanks Robin the lack of discussion and debate in NZ around Climate Change is a clear reflection of the dumbing down of NZ as a society. I long ago stopped asking why we are so stupid as a people. We did after all elect John Key as a leader 3 times and are sleepwalking our way to another election where our pollies are not only mute on the subject the vast majority of the have zero understanding of what climate change is and how rapidly it is occurring. Wild Katipo above clearly illustrates the predominate deeply ignorant level of knowledge on this issue prevalent in NZ at this point in time.

    • John W says:

      Hey WK you have started to get some info together so keep going.

      The bigger picture is well handled by a raft of specialised Scientists including climate change data.
      Recent data collected from Antarctica shows thinning of the ice shelves in response to rising water temperature. Yes the oceans are getting warmer.

      Man has put increasing amouhnts of CO2 and other gases in to atmosphere over the last two hundred years. The level of CO2 now is almost double of that during the last ice age and the rate of rise has never been as fast as it has over the last two hundred odd years. Man is to blame. 280 ppm up to over 400ppm and still rising.
      That has an unprecedented effect.

      • WILD KATIPO says:

        When I was doing a diploma in science and technology , we were taught the chemistry behind what was then called global warming. And all of these tutors prefaced their lectures with ‘according to who one choose to believe’.

        They did that for a good reason.

        And one good reason as of late was that Al Gore stood to gain around 16 trillion dollars for him and his fellow climate change advocates if the Paris Agreement carbon tax scheme had gone ahead. The same corporate’s who produce in the west then would have relocated to developing country’s and produced even more pollution because of the absence of regulations / mechanisms to reduce that pollution.

        And having a carbon tax in place would have done jack shit in reducing emission’s. So the whole deal was built on bogus premises from the start – except for those who stood to gain vast amounts of taxed dollars from the west.

        If you really want to see how it works – just view this about Lord Christopher Monckton and climate change.

        Global Warming Fraud – Lord Christopher Monckton Before U.S. …
        Video for lord monckton before usa climate change councilyou tube▶ 26:41
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfYXMDGUeO0

        Lord Christopher Monckton – Global Warming is a Hoax – YouTube
        Video for lord monckton you tube▶ 21:56
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGqcweY1a3I

        • One question: is Lord Monckton a scientist?

          • WILD KATIPO says:

            Does it matter?… and more to the point,… if even he being a journalist can refute the globalist propaganda….

            Or do we write off the findings of the two journalists whose findings eventually brought down Richard Nixon…

            That just goes to show how tenuous is the so called ‘climate change’ and those who stand to gain billions.. no – trillions of dollars from pushing it.

            • Well, yes, it does matter. A scientist is trained in his/her field of expertise.

              Who do you believe on river pollution – Dr Mike Joy, or John Key?

              Who would you seek medical advice from – a doctor, or someone untrained in medical science?

              Who do you get to check your electrical wiring – an electrician, or the guy who mows your lawns?

              I don’t understand your reference to people “gaining trillions of dollars”. More info on that would be helpful.

              • John W says:

                Skepticism is healthy WK.

                Being mislead is a journey to discovery of just that hopefully.

                Keep looking and testing your own beliefs.

    • Lara says:

      Fine. Deny global warming all you like. Continue to drive your combustion engine driven car and don’t go electric.

      But if you own or live in coastal property, then don’t bloody well come complaining to Council or Government that you need to be compensated when you get flooded.

      The vast majority of scientists, most especially those who are in fields directly related to climate study, agree. Global warming is happening, and it’s cause is anthropogenic.

      • WILD KATIPO says:

        At one time the vast majority of scientists agreed the earth was flat as well.

        They were wrong.

        • John W says:

          Monckton?

          You can do a lot better than that.

          Spurious arguments just don’t add up to anything worth noting.

          Monckton et al ignore more than what they take heed of.

          Training in science begins with understanding the logic of scientific argument based on considering a wide view of all relevant evidence available.

          Personal beliefs, desires or viewpoints have nothing to do with it.

          Al Gore was a politician.

          The world was considered flat until evidence made that theory untenable.

          How did the ocean get warmer in recent decades and become more acidic. Rising atmospheric CO2 and other gases that enable the faster absorption of sun’s energy seems to fit as a cause until something better replaces it.

          Remain open minded and try not to let Monckton fix view that shuts out a massive amount of evidence from consideration.

          By the way Monckton in making a mint out of preaching to anyone who does not want to see climate change nor other consequences of 200 years of pollution and consumption.

          False news is really time consuming when distilling information.

  2. savenz says:

    Great post. Yes we certainly have too many minimisers of climate change out there. Sadly by leaving it too late to change and adapt, the governments are leaving most people in very vulnerable positions, and it’s coming soon, within a decade is my guess, of very real climate change consequences for most people.

  3. CLEANGREEN says:

    RNZ = a puppet to Nactional government policy.

    Disgusting bias RNZ hang your head in shame!!!!!!

  4. savenz says:

    There has also been some other alarming climate change developments.

    ‘Doomsday’ seed vault in the Arctic has FLOODED after soaring global temperatures caused permafrost to melt

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4524206/Doomsday-seed-vault-Arctic-FLOODED.html

    “The facility was designed to be self-sustaining, meaning no human intervention, but it’s now being monitored around the clock, officials told the Guardian.

    Just months ago, the doomsday seed vault expanded its collection, with fifty thousand seed samples donated from all over the world to be kept safe until they are needed.

    It now houses nearly one million samples and is the world’s biggest collection of agricultural biodiversity.

    But, warming global temperatures are proving to be an unforeseen adversary.”

  5. Steve Rowe says:

    Oh not the “climate’s always changed” old saw again.

    We (including the scientist obviously) know that – it is the speed of change that is different this time. Instead of moving at a pace where many plants and animals can adapt, the changes now are so rapid that there is little to no hope of adaption. That includes us and our civilisation.

    It is also beyond obvious that small changes in the chemistry of the atmosphere have big consequences in temperature increase and various knock on effects (such as the jetstream wobble) – and humans have changed the atmospheric chemistry by a large amount, a very large amount.

  6. Siobhan says:

    “Under its broadcasting standards Radio NZ is supposed to reflect both sides of the argument”…you had me quite excited with that statement, as they very rarely present both points of view on the big, international stories. But then I actually read the rules.
    “When controversial issues of public importance are discussed in news, current affairs or factual programmes, broadcasters should make reasonable efforts, or give reasonable opportunities, to present significant points of view either in the same programme or in other programmes within the period of current interest.” (my bolds)
    That pretty much lets them off any and all hooks.
    Grrrr

  7. XRAY says:

    Is it just me but this and other things make me wonder if RNZ promised National something to unfreeze their budget?

  8. Observer Tokoroa says:

    Hi Wild Katipo

    Do you think we are putting too little Diesel into our air WK ? Like, we need much more smog than we are getting? Fabulous for our respiratory systems. We must have more and more and more.

    I know we are deeply deprived of acid rain. You must be soaked in sobs and tears over that WK. I grieve for you.

    I mean, you are having quite lot of fun with synthetic hormones. Billions of Dollars worth of deformation in London waters – caused by man alone. It is not fair on you. You want more fun. You deserve trillions of the shit. Bottle it for the little kids to drink eh?

    All the best with your saying and spraying mate. Like the Haka says: Kill Kill Kill. Kill everything while there is still time.

    Fortunately there is massive amounts of ecoli to play with up here Wild Katipo. It’s mixed with deadly drinking water. You will like that. Lots.

    I had no idea that you were anti Nature. Yet your very existence is an act of Nature.

    • Historian Pete says:

      Observer Tokoroa: You seem to be confusing climate change with pollution.Pay attention!

      • WILD KATIPO says:

        Indeed- it started off as scare global warming but they couldn’t prove that so they renamed it climate change. Well,… sorry to burst the bubble but the climates been changing on this old planet for allegedly millions of years.

        And here’s a trick : ALL of the planets in our solar system are right as of this moment undergoing vast climate change.

        Why?

        Sunspots. And these are not just small changes – these are massive. And I’m sure Venus doesn’t have SUV’S causing it as one scientist says…

        And here’s another thing… the very fact that some years back it was found certain scientists that were charged specifically with proving climate change were found to have used bogus and fraudulently manufactured data to produce their reports. And as we all know ,- scientists earn their daily bread being funded,- just like the lawyers and earlier scientists were to keep the tobacco industry alive and afloat.

        • And here’s a trick : ALL of the planets in our solar system are right as of this moment undergoing vast climate change.

          They are?!

          WK, I’m a bit of a science nerd (have been since ‘Star Trek’ first dazzled me in my childhood) and I haven’t heard of any of this “vast climate change” you refer to. Can you advise what observatories or space probes have picked up on this?

      • Ross Clark says:

        HP – well one of the causes of climate change is due to pollution of the atmosphere …. all inter connected.

      • John W says:

        They are intrinsically connected.

        Double our consumption of precious finite Non Renewable Natural Resources and we quadruple the pollution.

        Tokoroa you are right on track.

        Today we approach the point where only one third of the pre 1800 Non Renewable Natural Resources have not been consumed. What is left is the hard to get stuff as all the rest has gone.

        We are consuming and polluting at an unprecedented rate but not for much longer.

        It won’t be a voluntary reduction but a decline in industrialisation along with food shortage and population reduction.

        If you don’t see it perhaps you are not looking at what is happening to the very things we depend on.

        MSM is not much help.

      • Well, climate change is caused by pollution. Specifically, extensive emission of CO2, nitrous oxide, and methane from industrialised agriculture.

        Just as, in the 1970s/80s, it was determined that emitting chloroflourocarbons into the atmosphere was impacting on the Ozone Layer. It may be an unpalatable truth, but we are impacting on the biosphere of this planet. Denying it won’t make it go away.

        If anyone is seriously interested in finding the facts, here’s a hint; you won’t find scientific answers on political blogsites. You need to go to science websites for that kind of information.

        • kappanz says:

          Right on, Frank!

        • J S Bark J S Bark says:

          As usual Frank, you are quite correct.

          Sadly, we live in an age where it is very fashionable to revile science and the scientific method.

          We also live in an age of mass communication which means that any halfwit with a PC (or equivalent) can promulgate their halfwitted ideas which are then given credence simply because they exist on the web. No checks, no method, no peer review…

          O tempora o mores!

      • Observer Tokoroa says:

        Dear Historian

        Do not be concerned. You know climate change induced by humans has no effect on anybody. There never was a Hiroshima or a Nagasaki.

        But even a very temporary climate change can wreak havoc on normal people.

        And none of us expect an historian to understand what the Contraceptive Pill (a synthetic hormone) has done to water right within London.

        Nor would you understand that it takes over 25 human years to dismantle a Nuclear power station. Also there is no safe place in which to store the detritus.

        Like all historians you are living in the past. Good man. Just do not tell me that Nature is there solely to be abused by people like yourself and Wild Katipo.

  9. Kim dandy says:

    Interesting that America has just given the green light to building an extremely long water pipeline running from the colder/wetter/snowier parts of the country down to the hotter/ drier parts of the country.
    Very extreme – but perhaps thinking to the future? …and didn’t Trump just pull out of the Paris accord…but now thinking of opting back in…

    With regards to RNZ – Sadly, apart from TDB, I now by-pass most NZ MSM – there is more sense from foreign sources.

  10. Greg #56 says:

    Chuckles… OK, I’ll try to be serious. A few points:

    “something we have been waiting to happen for weeks.” Ten years, in fact.

    “This is the furthest back that the ice front has been in recorded history”. Which is just over 50 years, a mere two climate ‘cycles’. Scientists have only been studying this region, in any great detail, since WW2.

    “‘Doomsday’ seed vault in the Arctic has FLOODED”. That was last year, 2016, and a prime case of poorly-designed construction: leaky-home syndrome, if you will.

    “humans have changed the atmospheric chemistry by a large amount, a very large amount.” Of Earth’s 400 ppm CO₂ (0.04% of the atmosphere, which is why it’s called a ‘trace’ gas, or sweet fanny adams), a mere 0.0016% is from human activity. That’s less than 1, less than 1/10th, even less than 1/100th, of a percent, ie. zip, nada, negligible, almost zero.

    “Radio NZ is supposed to reflect both sides of the argument”. Thank goodness there was one (1) voice explaining the natural side of this event, as opposed to the four (4) breathless, panicky, overwhelmed, over-excited voices I heard wailing ‘n’ gnashing about the end-of-times… especially the geographically-challenged ‘expert’ who claimed this was the final collapse of the South Pole… which is approximately 1,000 Wales away from the ice shelf, give-or-take a few Luxembourgs or Stewart Islands or Lake Taupos or even Auckland cities. Please, look at a map: the Larsen C ice shelf is on the tip of the volcanic Antarctic Peninsula, almost on the Antarctic Circle at 66˚ S, just across the channel from South America – nowhere near the pole.

    “Yet your very existence is an act of Nature.” And isn’t that a beautiful thaang! Just like long ice ages and brief warm interglacials: cold, warm, cold, warm, cold, warm; repeat for millions and billions of years and my, how fortunate we are to be living in this brief snatch of sunshine in an otherwise frozen ice house.

    Stay warm tonight… if you can.

  11. Jen says:

    Now some are saying the glaciers that produced this ice shelf to begin with are going to speed up and cause the ocean to rise. FAT CHANCE, because the glaciers are the result of precipitation that came from the ocean to begin with, and they can only push more ice into the ocean as fast as it rains and snows on them. The net will be zero.

    • Afewknowthetruth says:

      Glaciers are on land, and therefore when they enter the oceans the water they are composed of adds to the water already in the ocean. That is elementary physics.

      If glaciers decline in volume or disappear completely -has been happening over recent decades and is happening right now- the oceans rise -as is being recorded right now.

      It is estimated the loss of the ice on Greenland (currently happening at an unprecedented rate) will cause a global sea level rise of around 7 metres.

      It is a pity we live in a society in which the vast majority of people are scientifically illiterate (and financially illiterate) and are firmly locked into denial of reality.

      Incidentally, contrary to popular belief, increased snow is usually indicative of warming, not cooling, because snow forms when air which is saturated with water vapour cools or encounters cold air. And it is warmer oceans that cause the air to become saturated with water vapour to a greater extent.

      Of course, it makes no difference how many times irrefutable scientific facts are presented because people believe what they want to believe and disregard the facts. And there are ‘professional trolls’, paid by the fossil fuel sector to churn out garbage in order that the general populace remain confused or in doubt, and continue to consume humungous quantities of fossil fuels.

      Those are some of the reasons why the next generation faces a very grim future (or no future at all).

      • Greg #56 says:

        “It is a pity we live in a society in which the vast majority of people are scientifically illiterate… and are firmly locked into denial of reality.” Couldn’t have said it any better myself. Greenland’s summit is ‘scorching’ today at -23˚C. Their summer sure has run away…

        http://www.summitcamp.org/status/webcam/

        Also, Greenland’s ice sheet surface mass budget: oops, not only is it growing, it’s at an all-time high. And did you hear about the frozen north’s record-breaking July 4th summer temp of -33˚C? The coldest in modern times? Of course not – down the memory hole.

        http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

        There’s cold, hard, observed science – and then there’s junk belief. BTW, I’ve just checked my letter-box: nope, still no cheque from the big, bad, bogeyman oil cartel. Then again, I live in hope…

        • Greg, you really should take more effort to read a webpage before linking to websites you believe repudiate climate change. The second link actually points to a major loss of ice on Greenland;

          If climate changes, the surface mass balance may change such that it no longer matches the calving and the ice sheet can start to gain or lose mass. This is important to keep track of, since such a mass loss will lead to global sea level rise. As mentioned, satellites measuring the ice sheet mass have observed a loss of around 200 Gt/year over the last decade.

          Not sure what your first link is supposed to prove.

  12. Afewknowthetruth says:

    I see that Wild Katipo has managed to get it all completely wrong, post a few phony arguments that have been discredited a million times, and give credence to people who have zero credibility.

    In the mid-nineteenth century Tyndall discovered that CO2 absorbs and reradiates radiation. By the end of the century Arrhenius had worked out that the Earth would overheat is humans continued to burn fossil fuels.

    By the 1980s it was very evident that the heat trapping effect of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would overwhelm the effect of Earth orbit factors that had driven climate changes for the tens of millions of years since that last major volcanic episode. And that is exactly what we are witnessing right now: the overwhelming of natural cycles as a consequence of human greed and stupidity.

    Since the economic system is driven by banks and corporations for the short-term benefit of banks and corporations, and since governments are agents of banks and corporations, it naturally follows that all government institutions promote the bankers’ Ponzi scheme ……which demands continuous growth to exist at all. Of course, anyone with a brain knows that infinite growth on a finite planet is mathematically impossible, and emeritus professor Albert Bartlett’ brilliant lecture ‘Arithmetic, Population and Energy’ highlighted the extreme folly of the dominant economic system and why it is doomed to catastrophic failure in the near future; not that ‘anyone’ would be interested in that!

    Radio NZ is just a business-as-usual organization, geared to maintaining short-term confidence in the bankers’ Ponzi scheme and geared to promotion of the Orwellian notion of ‘sustainable development’…..which is an oxymoron, of course, conflating two mutually exclusive concepts, since development is at the core of our collective predicament and nothing in the present economic system is, by any stretch of the imagination, sustainable.

    Needless to say, planetary meltdown is a very real phenomenon which is accelerating as the oceans warm, but the average [uninformed, uneducated] person does not recognize that the NZ government’s response to planetary meltdown is a scam (as is the case with the response of the vast majority of governments around the world) focused on making money for opportunists and banks whilst completely failing to address the fundamental issue of the need for a drastic reduction in the use of fossil fuels; that is if it is not already far too late, which is almost certainly the case, since atmospheric CO2 is now nearly 100 ppm higher than at any time in the past 800,000 years, and corresponds to long-term sea level rise of around 25 metres.

    In practice we now know that we are governed by incompetent fools and economic zealots who are quite prepared to sacrifice the next generation’s future to maintain their positions of privilege for a few more years.

    Just when planetary meltdown will go ‘supercritical’ is anyone’s guess, but proper scientific analysis suggests that once the ice in the Arctic is largely gone the positive feedbacks associated additional open water absorbing additional energy and the lack of heat of phase change (ice to water) will lead to a sudden surge in temperatures that may well trigger the methane clathrate time bomb.

    If all that were not enough, there is the matter of the imminent collapse of western civilization as a consequence of the declining Energy Return On Energy Invested of the oil sector, which is now in its last decade of ‘normality’ …..everything we see around in the modern world being a gross aberration in the grand scheme of things and a direct consequence of the use of fossil fuels -especially oil- as pointed out by M.King Hubbert in the 1970s.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImV1voi41YY

    Needless to say, governments will continue to promote the consumption (squandering) of fossil fuels until they can’t. And drive societies ‘straight off the cliff’ by doing so.

    Interestingly, the point of ‘they can’t’ will almost certainly be reached around 2020.

    We certainly live in ‘interesting times’ (a Chinese curse, in case anyone is unaware of the fact).

    Of course, denial of reality is far more psychologically comfortable than dealing with it.

    Renowned oil geologist Colin Campbell, co-founder of ASPO, is noted for saying: “If you don’t deal with reality, reality will deal with you. New Zealanders are going to find reality dealing some very harsh blows to their delusions over the coming decade, and will finally start to realise the extent they have been lied to by politicians, bureaucrats and opportunists.

  13. Robin, nice piece. Hope to see more of your excellent writing here on TDB.

  14. Paula O'Donnell says:

    Funny how these pics and video are sumer Antarctic and right now it’s the middle of winter and dark, why has it taken so long for them to be released???

  15. 44 south says:

    Kevin: thanks for your tireless efforts in trying to educate these clueless morons,I can’t be bothered anymore. 2020 cannot come soon enough. Monkton? !! Sweet Jesus!
    Do you know what has happened to Survival Acres ? I can’t find it anywhere.

  16. John W says:

    Putting climate change to one side if it is too hard to accept, there are other considerations in spelling out a very limited future for humans.

    Debates that centre of just climate changes seem to largely ignore our escalating harvesting and consumption of Non Renewable Natural Resources , which has been played a vital part of the provision of food availability and population expansion.

    We consume these NNNRs to harvest and exploit energy as well as produce material goods, machinery, transport and most things that temporarily support growth of civilisation up to 2017. The Earth carrying capacity for humans is a fraction of our present population.

    Food supply is another area largely ignored. The mechanisation of agriculture and food processing will fall away and infrastructure will decay without an ongoing renewal which just will not be possible.
    To compound that we continue to poison soils with fertilizers and biocides as well as pollute ground water streams and seas.

    Soil is being lost much faster than it is being formed and we also expect a drop of up to 25% of food production with each degree temperature rise and that is after acknowledging all known technologies that may assist with mitigate.

    If we should so happen to be around about 2050 then there will be less than 15% of the pre 1800 NNNRs available and what is left will be the stuff that is hardest or economically impossible to get.

    At 2017 we are consuming NNNRs at the fastest rate ever as technology and population creates demand but shortly this trend will wane and the industrialisation peak passes.. Industry is now showing decline in many sectors and a predicted steep decline is forecast to have dropped levels of industrialisation 32% by 2030 and 74% of todays output by 2050. That data has been reviewed many times and the trends confirmed again by Melbourne university in 2014.

    Water is another separate issue.

    NNNRs are relatively finite over geological epochs . Go figure.

    Ignore or deny climate if you wish but it certainly won’t help to have humans carrying on with the present patterns of consumption and waste.

    Many are trying to stem their personal consumption while others lavish themselves without regards for others.