National 47 per cent (down 2)
Labour 27 (down 3)
Greens 11 (up 2)
NZ First 11 (up 2)
Maori Party 2
Internet Party 0
The latest One News Poll is out and it’s pretty much what everyone is expecting. National and Labour have both taken a hit after their individual scandals.
The interesting point is that NZ First and Greens are now on par with each other but the most fascinating insight from the poll is how huge the undecideds are – 19% – that’s almost 1 in 5 NZers who have no idea who they are going to vote for and that means the whole election is teetering on winning over those who are still waiting to make a call.
Here’s how I break it down:
National: The decline in National is now on. Historically they always over poll going into the election, and with where they are currently they will be lucky to get 42%. Once the video of SAS killing citizens gets leaked and made public, Bill English is going to have real difficulty explaining how he has decided against a war crime investigation. There’s more to come on the Todd Barclay fiasco as well.
Labour: The tired, boring and predictable campaign they are currently running looks pretty flat right now, but todays policy launch show they are waiting to roll out ideas that have impact and their ground game has had huge work and the appeal of Jacinda in the urban areas among women will be the only reason they get over 30%.
Greens: Honestly, fuck knows what these clowns are doing, they’re mad decision to attack NZ First has got to be the most stupid thing I’ve witnessed in politics. Outside the twitter Wellington bubble world, voters see this move by the Greens as divisive, not interested in working together to change the Government and could be ultimately blamed for a 4th term National Government. I think the Greens will be lucky to get the 10% they got in 2014. There are serious problems within their staff if they are adopting tactics like this.
NZ First: For NZ First to have finally caught up with the Greens is proof positive that they will leap frog the Greens and become the 3rd largest party. Winston has already taken the Green attack on the road and is using the Greens and National as punching bags in his provincial jamboree. He will gut National vote in the provinces and is now well placed to put his demand to Labour that he is Prime Minister for 18 months.
Maori Party: It looks increasingly unlikely that the Maori Party will take back any other Maori electorate than the one they currently have and they will be lucky to get Marama Fox back in off the list. The deal they have cut with Pacific Island groups is a desperate attempt to lift that Party vote, it might pay dividends, but expect Labour to ram home the point that a vote for the Maori Party is a vote for National and once NZ First rules them out as bottom line they will have real problems explaining why anyone would vote for them.
TOP: There is still an outside chance that TOP could get over 5%, their meetings are packed and they are working on the same level of discontent within National voters, but at this stage the are wasting unhappy Green voters who want real cannabis reform and displaced National voters. They need a game changer and need one now.
ACT: This clown is still on track of being returned via Epsom. Why doesn’t Gareth Morgan stand in Epsom? If Labour and Green voters joined forces and voted for the National candidate they could kill off ACT, but Labour and Green voters don’t seem to have the ability to vote strategically.
United: If Greg O’Connor can unseat Dunne, there is a chance for a change in Government.
MANA: The damage Hone did to himself with the whole executing Chinese drug dealers was pretty significant. Kelvin Davis will be feeling a lot more confident of retaining his seat.