There was always going to be a moment amongst the Twitter elites, middle class activist base and even more middle class punditry when they all suddenly learned to count and realised in collective horror that Greens + Labour were not going to = 51%.
It’s not a new problem. I’ve been trying fruitlessly for the last 2 elections to create a smaller party to the left of the Greens to try and bring in the numbers to put Labour+Greens over the 50% mark by using the coat-tailing feature of MMP.
The trouble for progressive voters is that without a smaller party to the left of the greens using MMP coat-tailing to bring in the numbers to get to 51%, the only way Labour + Greens do that is with NZ First.
This has been obvious to everyone other than the Twitter elites, middle class activists and even more middle class punditry for about 18months.
As I pointed out some time ago, this election we can only get a change of Government, not a changed Government.
The Greens have become a middle class university sorority glee club while Labour have watered down any risk to our corporate overlords by promising to remove their spine if they win. The Greens and Labour are focusing on winning those who already vote, they are not going to do anything radical to try and catch the attention of the missing million who don’t vote.
Labour and the Greens are political parties with an identity crisis. They are a working class party and an environmental activist party both chasing middle class pretensions. They can’t decide who is Arthur and who is Martha, and if they ever did manage to make a decision, they’d take another 12 months arguing over pro-noun use.
This disconnect between their core values and their desire to woo middle class property owners leaves those wanting change with some very uncomfortable realities.
Any change of Government is most likely going to be a NZ First-Labour minority Government with supply and confidence from the Greens for some Cabinet positions. This reality is going to have the activist base howling with rage once Winnie and the Jonesy start up their cross-burning banjo jamboree of an election campaign.
By trying to be respectable to the property owning electorate, Labour and the Greens have lost any credibility with those neoliberalism is failing which leaves the Greens and Labour with no other option than to allow Winston to dominate.
Labour and the Greens have made their bed, now they are going to be forced to lie in it.