There was always going to be a moment amongst the Twitter elites, middle class activist base and even more middle class punditry when they all suddenly learned to count and realised in collective horror that Greens + Labour were not going to = 51%.
Toby Manhire has just had that moment.
It’s not a new problem. I’ve been trying fruitlessly for the last 2 elections to create a smaller party to the left of the Greens to try and bring in the numbers to put Labour+Greens over the 50% mark by using the coat-tailing feature of MMP.
The trouble for progressive voters is that without a smaller party to the left of the greens using MMP coat-tailing to bring in the numbers to get to 51%, the only way Labour + Greens do that is with NZ First.
This has been obvious to everyone other than the Twitter elites, middle class activists and even more middle class punditry for about 18months.
As I pointed out some time ago, this election we can only get a change of Government, not a changed Government.
The Greens have become a middle class university sorority glee club while Labour have watered down any risk to our corporate overlords by promising to remove their spine if they win. The Greens and Labour are focusing on winning those who already vote, they are not going to do anything radical to try and catch the attention of the missing million who don’t vote.
Labour and the Greens are political parties with an identity crisis. They are a working class party and an environmental activist party both chasing middle class pretensions. They can’t decide who is Arthur and who is Martha, and if they ever did manage to make a decision, they’d take another 12 months arguing over pro-noun use.
This disconnect between their core values and their desire to woo middle class property owners leaves those wanting change with some very uncomfortable realities.
Any change of Government is most likely going to be a NZ First-Labour minority Government with supply and confidence from the Greens for some Cabinet positions. This reality is going to have the activist base howling with rage once Winnie and the Jonesy start up their cross-burning banjo jamboree of an election campaign.
By trying to be respectable to the property owning electorate, Labour and the Greens have lost any credibility with those neoliberalism is failing which leaves the Greens and Labour with no other option than to allow Winston to dominate.
Labour and the Greens have made their bed, now they are going to be forced to lie in it.
“to bring in the numbers to get to 51%, the only way Labour + Greens do that is with NZ First.
This has been obvious to everyone other than the Twitter elites, middle class activists and even more middle class punditry for about 18months.”
Yes Martyn, you have worked hard, and I recall during your time on your TV show the greens/labour/nz first leaders met in a diner table to chat about the idea 18 months ago as “the government in waiting” do you recall this!!!!
Frankly labour greens need someone as experienced as Winston to lead the charge no-one else has the chance of extending this notion of a “government in waiting” as he has.i
+100 CLEANGREEN
Most people would not be underwater if Auckland property prices, or indeed any property prices fell. Those who did not indulge in real estate speculation will just be exactly where they were, with the ability to trade within the existing market.
Indeed, around most of the country, the last price surge before the GFC was followed by a crash that has only recently seen prices claw back above those seen at that time. And with all the pain suffered at that time, the provinces are still here.
In other words, a sharp correction is not the worst thing that can happen. A far worse outcome will follow a situation where there ISN’T a correction of this sort.
For all the Pollyanna pronouncements from the Business Elite Journalists, there hasn’t been and there won’t be a sudden rise in wage inflation any time withing the foreseeable future, so we can put that one to bed right now.
The Left is not going to attract many votes from speculators, and the needs of the many (future buyers) outweigh the needs of the few (over-extended buyers with large enough incomes to cover a big mortgage).
It would be entirely appropriate for the Left parties to acknowledge the fact and admit that, to succeed, their policies inevitably will have a downward effect on prices, not just that they plan to sell a stack of undesirable properties at existing value structures.
It may not translate to a wave of new votes, but it would establish their own credibility.
They might also underline that, for their own people, they will have to put equal emphasis on a massive rental expansion.
If rents fall to the point that accommodation benefits are no longer needed to the degree they are today, that would make a big difference both to the State finances, and the finances of individuals.
Labour is not a left wing party, please don’t perpetuate the myth that they are. They haven’t been left wing for over 35 years.
Labour sits well right of the centre, you are pushing the proverbial to expect any sort acknowledgement of that fact from the power brokers within that party.
Better for left wing NZers to wake up and start over.
Absolutely correct – this is the party that was going to have a capital gains tax but boo hoo people didn’t like it so it was scrapped. There is so little between them and the Nats. Let’s face it the ‘working class’ party after 9 years of great economic times (well they told us this) they left 170,000 kids living in poverty. I am currently visiting family in the UK. People I talk to here are gobsmacked when I tell them we have families living in cars, I tell them to google if they think I am making it up. It was interesting to open the newspaper 3 weeks ago on arrival to see exactly the same issues concerning people, housing availability, housing costs, poverty and massive inequality. The land of milk and honey is small enough to sort out these issues now, we need to not wait until it gets even worse!
You’re bang on the money, Martyn; the propertied and rentier class of “haves” (looking increasingly foreign) are so out of touch with the have nots (a growing proportion), that at best they disdain them while holding their noses and muttering ‘despicable racists’ to one another. As I wrote a year ago, any option other than a democratically elected Wisnton will result in something decidedly violent and undemocratic down the line (yes, this may happen irrespective of Winston’ gaining power or not).
Call the have nots any names you want to; sell your property, donate all your money to charity, go compete for a less-than-minimum wage (but highly “skilled”) job in the No Zealand race to the bottom to understand what is coming. Failure to do so will simply see your pontifications from on high ignored by the “deplorables”.
“and if they ever did manage to make a decision, they’d take another 12 months arguing over pro-noun use.”
Excellent deliberate misspelling to reinforce point being made.
But if it was not deliberate, the point is this: all too often the best job applicant has their CV chucked peremptorily into the bin because of a minor spelling error.
In the same way, radical reform advocates need to be aware that minor typos will be used by conservatives to show that not only is the radical reformer is way out of left field – he/she is semi-educated because of those minor spelling mistakes. Reduce the frequency!
You had plenty of opportunities to take advantage of the winds of change and you blew it.
“Could it think, the heart would stop beating.”
– Pessoa
last post from me ever. Goodbye.
“Godzone”, aye. I dream of a day where there are only the hills and the possibility of God in them. The rest of you can get into the sea.
..have you got a wetsuit and a rowing boat too?…
[…] I love how all of a sudden every political pundit and Party can count. […]
Never mind, when Labour lose this election THEN, surely to God, we can get the progressive Left wing Labour Party I’ve waited my entire voting life for, and that the citizenry so desperately need.
And not just for those who have been screwed by neoliberalism, but also those deluded souls who think their house value somehow makes up for their postponed knee operation, their stagnant wages, the fact that the kids either can’t leave home, or they left for Aussie and now the Grandparents are ‘Skype’ grandparents….not to mention all the social and economic carnage around them.
A progressive Labour Party Government could in fact help save the Nation’s moral compass.
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