I’ve had a number of people ask me about the latest TV One News Colmar Brunton Poll. If you missed it, the numbers are: National (49%), Labour (30%), Greens (9%), NZ First (9%), The Opportunities Party (1%), ACT (1%) and the Maori Party (1%).
Here’s my take on it.
This Poll is probably the most reliable of all polls. It has been consistently close to the mark over a number of years. The Nat’s are up 3% to 49% without doubt because of the budget.However, there’s four months until the Election and I think there’s no way that they will stay at this number. Expect them to come down to at least 45% in the Polls by the Election if not less (remember they got 47% in 2014). And obviously, I would hope that we can get them closer to 40% by Election Night, which is September 23rd.
Labour 30% – we have been here for several months. I don’t think we can be the Government at this percentage, although technically, we could put some sort of combination together.
However, I think that for us to be contenders for Government, we need to get to a minimum of 33%. And we definitely can be Government if we hit 35%. So picking up 3-5% over the next 4 months, one would think shouldn’t be that tough but time will tell. It’s important I acknowledge though that the Party’s aim is to get to 40% which is only right.
I keep getting this question though, how do we become Government at 33-35%? Well, like this. MMP is about blocs, and the current left-middle bloc is 48%. Now if the Greens who are our partners and NZ First can get their vote up to between 12-15%, we get 33-36%, then we are very much in business. This Election is that close.
NZ First’s Poll of 9% is very good for them. At the last Election, they were polling only around 2-3% at this time, and Winston is the King in terms of campaigning. So, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them hit 12-13% or more.
The Greens traditionally poll high but always seem to come back to around 10-11%.Obviously they will be hoping that their traditional high polling holds up this time.
Now, the Maori Party’s 1% totally confirms what I said about their last Colmar Brunton poll when they ended up with 4%. That poll was an aberration and this can happen from time to time. You only know if the poll is real if it coincides with other polls and there wasn’t one other poll which came anywhere near to the 4% that they got last time.
So the Maori Party and their supporters need to understand how this all works, rather than prematurely celebrating something that didn’t really make any sense.
They have never hit 2% in a General Election and very rarely hit 2% in any polls. Now that’s not to say that they can’t hit that figure, but 4% for a minor party is huge, and they are very unlikely to get near the 4% mark again.
They have had a very poor budget and expect them to be taken apart by some of our MPs like Meka Whaitiri over the next month or so because of their inexplicable support for the Ture Whenua Bill.
Funny enough, I caught up with Winston down at the Green Parrot just a couple of nights ago, and he said ‘don’t believe for one moment those polls, Willie. If you think NZ First are only 9%, then you must be silly’.
So, I’ll leave it up to you to decide who’s right. Winston or TVNZ’s Colmar Brunton Poll.