Corbyn victory possible – Tories panic

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An electoral earthquake is coming in the UK. If you are around next Friday night we are having a few drinks to celebrate at the Unite Union office in Auckland. Come along from 2pm and we will broadcast the results on a big screen.

The Jeremy Corbyn lead Labour Party has gone from 28% to 38% in the polls in a few weeks. They are now just three points behind in one of the most recent. This happened as soon as certain electoral rules kicked in for the media to start treating each party in a fairer way.

As soon as people had an opportunity to see and hear Corbyn, his left wing message of change “For the many, not the few” resonated broadly.

The most left-wing manifesto in decades has been greeted with enthusiasm.

The British Conservative Party campaign has been a train wreck. Their leader Theresa May comes across as an uncaring Toff – which she is. Their policies are seen as catering only to the rich and powerful – which they are.

The attacks on Corbyn have no descended into the gutter of trying to link him with the recent terrorist attack and past associations with the Irish Republican Army. This is particularly hideous given that the Conservative Party government has been working to empower the Libyan jihadi groups for years and has been complicit in loyalist terrorism in Northern Ireland.

If Corbyn wins, he is likely to face a rebellion from some of his own MP’s. The hangover from the days when Tony Blair lead the party and the country into war and austerity on a Tory agenda are still strong. It is probable that they would rather split the party than allow a left-wing programme to be implemented. Corbyn and his allies have not had the time they need to make the Party fit fo the purpose of radical transformation. But and electoral victory, or even a narrow defeat, will strengthen the hands of the genuine left to retake the party and turn it into a genuine instrument to advance the interests of UK working class – to become a genuine “Labour” Party.

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

The New Zealand Labour Party can look at this election campaign and realise that policies count and left wing policies are popular when articulated in a manner that speaks to the concerns of the majority.

 

49 COMMENTS

  1. I have an idea that the usual local party membership was not able to select candidates in vacated seats this time round because of time constraints with a snap election and only 50 days to prepare.
    It would have been interesting to see what would have happened to the Blair relics in their electorates
    Even if Labour loses,Corbyns success in closing the gap with the most left wing policies in decades should assure his leadership and send shock waves through the establishment.

    • At least the Blairites are keeping their heads down and not trying to sabotage him during the campaign. The way it looks now win or lose , Corbyn is showing up far too well, and far too popular to not establish his position firmly. For the Blairites to resume their attacks after such an unexpectedly successful campaign will be political suicide once the labour party membership have their chance to replace them. And yes that is my understanding, they did not get that chance this time round due to the time constraints. Blair himself seems to have pulled his head in at this stage too.
      D J S

      • Yeah, the Blairites would be happy enough to win even under Corbyn, and then within a year they would engineer a coup to replace him with one of their own.
        It is still a very divided British Labour Party, however it may appear at the moment.
        They have pulled their heads in at the moment because Corbyn is campaigning very strongly, and they know it.

  2. HOPE CORBYN STAYS OUT OF ANY TRADE DEALS WITH EU OR US AS THEIR HOOKS ARE DEVASTATING SEE HERE.

    http://isds.bilaterals.org/?62-new-investor-state-disputes-in&lang=en

    62 new investor-state disputes in 2016
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    Financial Express (Dhaka) | 27 May 2017
    62 new investor-state disputes in 2016
    In the past year, some 62 Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) cases were initiated by the investors against 41 countries.
    The cases were initiated in pursuant to the international investment agreements (IIAs), according to a review report of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
    Thus, total number of such arbitrations stood at 767 at the end of 2016. Most of the new cases were filed by the investors from developed countries.
    UNCTAD report showed that about two thirds of ISDS cases in the past year were based on bilateral investment treaties, most of them dating back to the 1980s and 1990s.
    The remaining arbitrations were based on treaties with investment provisions.
    In 2016, ISDS tribunals made 57 substantive decisions, 41 of which are in the public domain.
    Tribunals considered many issues that touch upon policy options identified in UNCTAD’s Road Map for IIA Reform and its Investment Policy Framework for Sustainable Development.
    UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2017, scheduled to unveil the next month, presents and analyses the pros and cons of 10 policy options that countries can take to reform their old-generation treaties.

  3. Forget the U.S election, forget the French election.
    This is by far the most riveting , not only because of the incredible rise and rise of a dogged and determined Jeremy Corbyn who has had every derogatory term imaginable thrown at him, but how through eloquently articulating genuine caring core beliefs has created a seachange in the psychy of millions of people.
    If he does manage to pull off the win it will be one of the greatest political comebacks in recent history…..and yet….despite having t.v reporters in the U.K we have had no coverage on either Tv1 or Tv3 news….extrordinary.
    In fact I have not heard anything on radio either.
    A small coterie of people running the media outlets here have obviously decided that they don’t want the Corbyn message filtering into the Kiwi mindset…deeply disturbing!!

    • Grant
      There was one episode on RNZ yesterday afternoon on Jim Mora’s panel.
      It was an excerpt from an interviewer who was delighted to find Jeremy could not tell her the exact cost of the free childcare off the top of his head. She saw her opportunity and badgered relentlessly to make damn sure he neither had a moment to consult either his memory or his notes.
      There was no more of the interview and no more about the election, just Jim’s panel condemning the failure.
      They don’t want a Corbyn style socialist epidemic to infest NZ.
      Not that I can see any likely vector for them to worry about.
      D J S

      • That old reptile Brian Edwards on the panel confessed he liked Theresa May. About Corbyn, the great sage had this to say:
        “I dunno, just don’t like him”
        He’s been supping with Michele Boag too long

          • Brian Edwards is quite some socialist. Note that this is someone who (1) Refused to recognize that his friend Paul Holmes was racist and attacked those who commented on his blog that felt otherwise; (2) Thinks that gay couples should not be allowed to adopt children and that it is selfish of them when they want do so; (3) Regards libraries loaning books out as some sort theft because it deprives authors such as him of book sales and profit

            • “Paul Holmes was racist”

              If you’re referring to the infamous “cheeky darky” comments, did you ever actually listen to a recording of what he said? He was lampooning the racist paternalism of George W. Bush. The way the pro-Bush right were able to spin this, and recruit the useful idiots of the “identity politics” left t dogpile Holmes, was genuinely disturbing. Fact checks people. Do them before you mouth off.

              If there is any genuine evidence of Holmes being racist, I’d be interested to hear about it.

              • Paul Holms was considered a family friend so as a Maori I take offence at any character assinations.

                And try and oearn how to be a kiwi. Kiwi’s do not talk ill about the dead.

                Rip

        • Francesca: “That old reptile Brian Edwards…”

          Reptile, hmm. Maybe you’re being too kind: I had him tagged as a fossil. Coprolite, even.

          Duncan: “Supping?”

          Better supping than tupping with Michele Boag, I think. Erk! That’s put a picture into my mind that I didn’t want and can’t now shake off.

          The UK election is certainly the best show in town right now. Maybe a Labour victory is not quite reachable, but I hold out hopes…. At the very least, I hope that the Tories get a bloody good electoral fright.

        • Edwards is certainly no great sage. He is a muddled thinker who’s “fame” is really based on one TV interview.

          Why we we give TV and ex TV people any more credit than other workers is a strange quirk of association through seeing them often and being obedient.

          Edwards has an unhealthy regard for Edwards and has yet to show benefit to the community he lives off.

  4. Yes Grant

    Teresa May has poured all her vile venom on Jeremy Corbyn. She is very cheap, dirty and fundamentally nasty. She has not faced the Elctorate.

    Corban is way above her by any measure.

    His so called Labour Party colleagues have been nothing but poison. Dumb Dullards. Cruel too.

    But Corbyn has continued to put down policy that will give the Middle Class a far better deal as well as the millions of poor people. He also wants equal opportunity for all people – not just for the few.

    The Wealthy have done very well in the UK. But no one else has. Corbyn has been out speaking to countless thousands of people. He has not parked his ass in comfortable Parliament.

    He has re- made Labour. Even if Labour does not know it.

    As for the Media in New Zealand. They are utterly dishonest. They should be greeted with apt Teresa’s Mays chant: “Liar, Liar Liar”.

  5. We have been told for years that a Left wing agenda is not saleable. This proves the fallacy of that argument. The Torys cut services and privatise because they say, “We can’t afford it”. Well the “We” are us the people and we want healthcare, education, good public services. And “We” don’t care about”afford”, we just want them.

    So NZ Labour be brave. Sell the agenda, if the Natz question the dollars tell them it’s time for them to pay their fair share.

  6. Could it be that Corbin snatches victory from the Tories? That would be the greatest upset since Trump and Brexit. We live in hope!

  7. Ironically I see some Eurosceptics telling me that Labour are better placed to negotiate Brexit than the Tories

  8. Rebel MPs-Blairite rump….what will these guys do if they win? Easy answer for 90% of the venal buggers, they will fall into line and keep their cosy salaries and perks. And once the agenda gets into full swing and the popularity of Labour goes stellar they will pretend to have been for it all along.

  9. I was beginning to despair for him, but he’s really coming up now. What I find particularly encouraging is that a lot of those UK polling companies are trialling new methodologies. That’s significant, as last time polls had Labour way higher than their result, and it seemed like Labour’s initial low vote vs. the Tories related to these new polling techniques. If he’s closing the gap, then there’s hope that it isn’t going to be due to the same bad polling as last time.

    • Last UK election labour having held nearly all of the Scottish seats ( there are 59 in total) lost almost every one of them to the SNP. This because Labour had become indistinguishable from the Tories.SNP offered a far more socialist agenda .
      With 59 out of 650 Scottish seats and SNP holding nearly all of them I can’t see how they don’t show on Yougov pols unless they are improbably among the 8%”other”. Yougov might be leaving Scotland out. In which case if many electorates return to labour because the have rediscovered their relevance which the well might, the result will be better than the poles.
      D J S

  10. If Corbyn wins, that will be another blow against nationalism and bigotry. Fingers crossed for sensible voting to take place.

    • Interesting comment Theodore, given that the Tories en-masse were anti BREXIT and it was the old working class areas that voted for Brexit (who incidentally probably align more with Labour even though theparty were anti Brexit as well).

      Bigotry. I don’t really think that the Tories are more bigoted than anyone else, they merely have a nasty agenda if you are from the Left. I have met bigots from both sides.

      • Corbyn’s anti-Brexit stance;

        ” The Labour party is overwhelmingly for staying in because we believe the European Union has brought investment, jobs and protection for workers, consumers and the environment, and offers the best chance of meeting the challenges we face in the 21st century.

        […]

        We also need to make the case for reform in Europe – the reform David Cameron’s government has no interest in, but plenty of others across Europe do. That means democratic reform to make the EU more accountable to its people. Economic reform to end self-defeating austerity and put jobs and sustainable growth at the centre of European policy; labour market reform to strengthen and extend workers’ rights in a real social Europe. And new rights for governments and elected authorities to support public enterprise and halt the pressure to privatise services. So the case I’m making is for ‘remain – and reform’ in Europe. “

        ref: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/14/jeremy-corbyns-eu-speech-what-he-said-and-what-he-meant

        • I sense that the ‘Brexit’ will perhaps end up in the dustbin of history, should Labour be able to form a minority government with the Scottish Nationalists and / or the Liberals. They would probably go ahead into negotiations with the EU, as suggested, but at the end offer the people a referendum. Once the British voters will see how much worse off they may end up, they may swing back to stay within the EU, and years of upheaval will come to an end.

          Should some other countries get more progressive governments in the meantime, Corbin may become a great reformer of the EU, well at least play a leading role in that.

          • I hope the SNP get into power and England can rid itself of the scourge that is Scotland forever

            • If there is a change of government, and Corbyn will form a government, a negotiated exit draft agreement will likely be held a petition over. And that may well throw the whole agenda out the window, and Scotland will not need to leave.

              Scotland would be happy to stay in the UK then, and the English seem happy keeping them, so Andy is just making stuff up, to create a drama for himself to dream of unfolding.

  11. A Corbyn victory would be great for New Zealand – it would put the vile crooks currently wrecking the country on notice, and wake up the ineffectual ‘centrists’.

  12. Do you think the NZ MSM will show ‘A labour victory’ on any media?
    5mins air time perhaps – small article at the back of a newspaper maybe…?
    It will be interesting to see how they handle such news!

  13. Probably the best thing to come out of this campaign is that Jeremy has stamped his mark on the Labour party.

    The surge in support is remarkable when you consider that most of the media is pro right , it would seem Corbyn is reaching the electorate and by passing the nasty fourth estate which shows that a left wing alternative is possible in such a hostile environment.

    The British people have been prepared to listen and examine Labours manifesto and they like what they see and that the party has rejected neo liberal policies and that they are everything May and the Tories are not.

    Whatever happens he has won against all the odds.

  14. the NZ Labour Party has not been able to dredge up a single, official, supportive word for Mr Corbyn, or his policies, such as re-nationalisation

    to put it bluntly, NZ Labour hierarchy will be filling their pants at the prospect of a Labour win, or even narrow loss in the UK election, it puts a class analysis back in the frame

    Roger Douglas and co swung a wrecking ball through the NZ working class in the mid 80s, and the NZLP continues to support the “neo liberal consensus” with the Nats, whereby the Reserve Bank Act, SOEs and the free in and outflow of capital is maintained

  15. Percentages mean little in a FFP election, so I would not want to get ahead of myself with any predictions. But should Corbyn and UK Labour manage to appeal to enough of the younger and perhaps also marginalised groups to go voting, the Tories may be in for an unpleasant surprise.

    We live in rather uncertain times, surprise results may not only happen to favour the right wingers and populist nationalists, they may also allow others a chance to make it, such as Mr Corbyn and his supporters. Traditional party loyalty is less significant now, and people may vote rather differently to what pollsters may forecast, see France for instance.

    If the Tories get beaten, I will certainly celebrate, as that may send a message to NZ Labour to stop being to inhibited and overly cautious with their policy direction.

  16. I’m hoping this could mean the end of the Crosby/Textor team
    Crosby failed to get his man Goldsmith in for the mayoral campaign, backed out of the Canadian Harper campaign when he saw the jig was up, and now with May, the old ad hominem tactics have gone belly up with Corbyn’s well received television appearances

  17. In withdrawing from the Paris Agreement on climate change, the United States will leave the ranks of more than 190 nations committed to the international deal and join Syria and Nicaragua as the only other countries that are not participating.

    According to the announcement by President Trump Thursday afternoon, the U.S. will become the third country in the world to reject the pact, which is intended to slow the rate of global warming by reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

    Syria, in the midst of a civil war, wasn’t expected to sign the agreement and had no involvement with the 2015 negotiations.

    Nicaragua denounced the global pact during the 2015 talks, citing concerns over the voluntary nature of the agreement and the lack of punitive measures in place for countries that violate the deal. The nation also balked at the agreement’s aim to limit the global temperature to 2°C, calling for a more ambitious target.

    But the carbon emissions of both Syria and Nicaragua are far less than that of the United States, which means that America’s withdrawal could have far greater consequences.

    Syria and Nicaragua produced about 70,000 and 16,000 kilotons of carbon emissions, respectively, in 2012, according to World Bank data. The U.S., however, emitted about 6.3 million kilotons — more than 67 times the total emissions of Syria and Nicaragua combined.

    Though a U.S. withdrawal wouldn’t take effect until 2020, the shift would send a strong message about the nation’s prioritization of climate change.

    Trump had decried the 2015 agreement during his presidential campaign, vowing to withdraw from the agreement within his first 100 days. He claimed that the U.S. economy would save trillions of dollars by abandoning the agreement. In the past he has called the very idea of human-caused climate change a “hoax.”

    Some of Trump’s own advisers and Cabinet members, as well as American business leaders and world leaders including Pope Francis, had asked Trump to keep the U.S. in the agreement.

    • I am glad to hear and read that among all those countries at least one has realised how deficient the Paris Agreement is: Nicaragua. They may have flaws re other matters, but they certainly got their assessment on Paris right.

      Most others are self serving, see the loopholes for themselves, and are not that honest and committed, to be bloody honest.

  18. I don’t care about any of that speculation. Back to the water, I think a 50% tax sounds about right or perhaps a profit share where the water sellers have to do all the pumping, bottling and exporting and the NZ government gets 50% of the gross.

    [New, is this the conversation-thread you wanted this posted in? If not, please re-post in the appropriate thread and I’ll Approve it and delete this one. My apologies if I got it wrong. – Scarletmod]

    • Taxation is a great responsibility. To set a rate such as yours with a commodity like water. No one expects to pay for water because you can pick it up off of the ground essentially. Water sits there like Liza’s bucket from which the taxes flow through the hole and onto the ground. But unlike the nursery rime if you modify human behaviour by modifying the bucket then the bucket wins and Liza eats stale porridge.

  19. Maybe, you all know the saw about politics and a week.
    There is no doubt Jezza and Seamus were far more prepared for this than May & co expected, but unfortunately one area that is still untidy is in the selection of MP’s themselves.
    The Oxbridge parachutist club is still over represented in the parliamentary party and a Corbyn win while being a great short term fillip could be a disaster long term, totally undermining the contemporary move to the left.
    Peter Mandelson still owns a lot of Labour MP’s as those who watched tha al Jazeera expose of the influence buying of brit pols must be aware. The israeli operative was openly boasting of having more than one million quid to hand out to the ‘right’ labour MP’s.
    These arseholes have already undermined the Labour Party and have destructively discredited Corbyn under Labour Party rules which open up leadership elections to all members.
    The damage they can do under parliamentary rules where the PM is elected by MP’s not the party, is immense.
    Of course they won’t stage an immediate coup that would be too obvious even for them, but a white ant process will be attempted and it will disrupt the effective change of power.
    If I had a choice, my preferred outcome for this election would be a greatly improved showing by labour with the tories just get there but so badly damaged May can’t hold the conservative’s disparate factions together.
    That leads to another election in two years or so by which time Mr Corbyn will have voided the blairites down the sewer of history and he wins with a resolute capable and well formed Labour Government.

  20. If Corbyn pulls off such a stunning reversal in the polls, it will show the world that there are alternatives to the likes of Trump and other populists/nationalists.

    There’s hope yet!

  21. Even if Corbyn wins in a landslide, there will be ZERO change in the NZ Labour Party. NeoLiberalism is fully entrenched, and there are NO Corbynites in the Party, none.

    Corbyn was the MP That Time Forgot. He was in Parliament before Thatcher, and he stayed in Parliament despite his excellent politics, not because of them.

    There are no Jeremy Corbyns in the NZ Labour Party. So how does anyone imagine NZ Labour would be able to take advantage of UK events when every last sitting member of the Labour Party is a Tory-lite True Believer who has sworn a holy oath to uphold the Rogernomic Revolution they started?

  22. Funny how people seem to forget how wrong opinion polls were before several previous elections, including the last UK one.

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