Labour should feel very proud of their Conference success.
Curbing property speculators, public health nurse in each school, free access to mental health services – Houses, Education and Health – core Labour Party values, core election beef.
Positive, decent, safe. That’s what Labour needs to project to get 33% if it has any hope of being the backbone of a change of Government.
Meaningless bugger alls when you consider the enormity of the inequality in front of us, but aspirational enough for the middle classes who are feeling guilty about all that untaxed capital gain of the last decade.
Andrew looked confident, the Party membership sense the change in the wider community, Jacinda looked genuine, Grant looked ready, the Greens looked muzzled, the Staff are gloating and the media gave them great coverage.
So why aren’t I confident yet?
Because a change of Government is still going to be dependent on NZ First and on that front shifting the smoke from the mirrors is almost near impossible.
Labour is ready, the question is who is going to be ready alongside them?
A change of government should not be reliant on NZ First but a strong party vote for Labour.
30-35 % will not cut it.
National are STILL the largest party !
Yes, from a PR and ‘marketing’ point of view, the presentations and speeches came across rather well and aspirational enough to even impress the otherwise so Labour critical MSM.
But for a critical observer and follower like me, I am not all that impressed with this kind of “American style” electioneering. But it seems to be a sign of the times, where everything is treated like a “living document”, with little detail, and which can be changed as the writers and stakeholders go along using it.
It is all very humble stuff that I read and can so far analyse, not really anything great, conservative promises, clearly aimed at not upsetting the middle class, and to try and win some “centrist” votes, from people who are worried about too expensive housing, about social tensions and increased crime due to income inequality and injustices, who worry about accessible health care and affordable education for their kids.
That mental health package is not as great as described above, get real, it is just a start of much more that is needed.
So the journey starts right into election campaigning now, I think, certainly from 25 May onwards, when the Budget will have been presented.
But as it happened almost every Budget over recent years, we better be prepared for those surprises that may come, a bit of a carrot for the middle class and perhaps even low income earners and beneficiaries (e.g. Accommodation Supplement increase, shifting of taxation thresholds and a bit here and there).
The election will be very close, and I fear, it will indeed be decided by Winston First, ahem NZ First make Winston, unless something of a real surprise happens.
And what Winston may decide, that will be anyone’s guess. English may go if Nats need NZ First, Winston may support a National minority government, and that will also be very humble pie in regards to any changes this country desperately needs.
The environment will suffer, will suffer something big, I think, as the Greens will probably not gain much above ten percent, and their present showing even pleases the employers (note Kim Campbell on Q+A), it seems, stuff to worry.
https://www.ema.co.nz/resources/contact/individuals/Pages/Kim-Campbell.aspx
Spot on there Mike.
Though, to my mind, the Accommodation Supplement increase, and the offer of more subsidized insulation, is actually a carrot for Landlords not the low incomers…it’s another rent increase delivered thanks to the tax payer…
Climate Change
Winston has always courted the largest party as the favourite for a deal. I don’t expect this time will be different. Everyone should prepare for a National/NZ First coalition government imo.
71% of NZF Supporters would prefer NZF to go with Labour, I guess the NZF Caucus and Board will have some decisions to make after 2017 Election ?
The Labour Party are starting to hit their straps.
Andrew Little, who has been pacing himself for awhile now, has gone into another gear and is timing his run beautifully.
I can’t help thinking of the famous 10,000 Metre race at the Chistchurch commonwealth games where the dogged Dick Taylor hung in there out of the lime light biding his time , then with 350 meters to go hit the afterburners to pass the now flailing opposition and sprint away for a spectacular victory.
You just get the feeling….
Looked confident until he was asked a question that is.
A question he was never ever allowed to answer, as the Chipmunk ran amok.
He should carry some acorns with him to feed the chipmunk, throw him off, the chipmunk will be baiting Little and Winston, hopefully they don’t get hooked up on his bait. He is playing Gotcha Politics like Whale Scum does ? Two peas out of the same pod ?
He should carry some acorns with him to feed the chipmunk when he gets excited, throw him off for a bit, the chipmunk will be baiting Little and Winston, hopefully they don’t get hooked up on his bait. He is playing Gotcha Politics like Whale Scum does ? Two peas out of the same pod ?
He should carry some acorns with him to feed the chipmunk when he gets excited, throw him off for a bit, the chipmunk will be baiting Little and Winston, hopefully they don’t get hooked up on his bait. He is trying to play Gotcha Politics like Whale Scum normally engages in ?
Two peas out of the same pod ? Little and Winston will have to come up with a strategy to handle the hyperactive chipmunk ?
Compared to the pre organised set of questions English sends to the Chipmunk to be asked.
I reckon they’ll do it.
I think they will pull on through and its going to be a Labour led govt. Also , maybe it wasn’t as grandiose as some people would like, but the alternative is more corruption , degradation of our media, environment , and most of all , – our society.
I’ve also got a sneaking suspicion Peters wont risk his legacy by being known when he finally bows out that ‘ he went against the wishes of the majority of his members and went with National’…
I believe it will be a Labour led govt with the Greens and NZ First after this September general election.
Guys, you’re dreaming
Most of Labour’s policy statements don’t hold water and Little will fall apart when put in front of a camera in the run-up to the election.
Specific examples being the property tax proposal and immigration policy. They’re daft!
Just like in 2014, unless Labour has solid policy statements which have be treasury reviewed, their opposition will prise them apart in TV debates.
I am not dreaming, it is early days yet, and Andrew Little, despite of his flaws, is a learner, and a very, very determined doer, who is outcome focused. He will – with the necessary, but soon received advice – still have quite a good chance of getting there.
Dreaming are people like you, who think you have already “won” an election, four and a half months out from it to take place, in a different season, a fast moving world and news cycle, that will offer more surprises to come.
Mike, wasn’t it you who thought that Minto would take out the Chch mayoralty and when I suggested I’d eat my hat if he did, you suggested I get it in the oven real quick?
Perhaps your current prediction will be more accurate.
Andrew, here are the successes of YOUR Govt
1.Immigration under National is crushing infrastructure,
2. Clean green waterways, non existent.
3. Record homelessness
4. Record poverty
5. national debt clock..http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/ and rising,
and so on and so forth.
So whilst you attack 2 of Labours policies because they’re “daft” you accept all of the above.
When they legalise cannabis Andrew, you should be scared. There will be another dope competing with you.
Yeah Andrew will face the same opposition as Goff then Cunliffe had in the last two elections, the National PM and unofficial National party media interrogator Mike Hosking.
I would respect Little’s decision if he refused to take part in any One News leaders debate.
But i am sure he will take part despite the apparent bias and complaining got Cunliffe no where in 2014.
Having said that, even conventional pundits had to admit that when Cunliffe took him on at the One News debate with ‘Honest’ Mike Hosking as the mod, Key got totally BTFO.
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