BREAKING: Le Pen & Macron to go to the second round – end of the 5th Republic

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Extraordinary results coming in from the early projections for the French election.

Macron won 23.9% vs Le Pen’s 21.4%, and astoundingly neither of the major political French Parties, the Socialists and the Republicans ,will look like they will win enough  to enter the second round.

That’s a fucking political earthquake and effectively it means the end of the 5th Republic.

Marcon, a right wing neoliberal who wants free market reform started his own political party last year so for him to come through and win is extraordinary. Le Pen’s National Front is an openly fascist hard right political party whose rise highlights the deep fury, anger and fear inside the French nation.

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All conventional wisdom says that the entire French political establishment will now turn on The National Front and elect Macron, but conventional wisdom means sweet fuck all these days.

Macron’s free market reform agenda could cut into the socialist heart of French public services, he wants to slash 120 000 public service jobs and if Le Pen speaks to the workers and poor who desperately need those public services, I don’t think anyone can claim to know what the outcome will be.

That the two main political parties of France that have been the constant backbone of the 5th Republic   didn’t even manage to get through to the second round tells us that the French people are so tormented by political gridlock that they will turn to political outsiders and sadists to force any kind of change.

That is what propelled Brexit, that is what propelled Trump and that is the dynamic propelling France right now. As those who have been failed by neoliberal globalisation start to turn on the political establishments who have sold their futures and aspirations away, the Left needs to get off its arse and start providing radical populist change or become politically irrelevant in an ocean of rising fury over the lost promises of democracy.

The fear now surely would be a terrible terrorist attack in Paris because Le Pen could manipulate that horribly.

Vive la Trump.

 

20 COMMENTS

  1. Good analysis Martyn.
    Compare it to the United States. Conventional wisdom (and all the polls) assumed that the blue collar workers would vote for Hilary. Instead they voted for Trump and with strategic voting plus gerrymandering they won it for him.
    Last time the far right got into a second round run-off it was in the 1980s and the nation basically closed ranks to ensure their defeat.
    But if Le Pen captures a big block of people discontented with how “the market” has shafted them over the years, and with Macron basically promising more of the same, we can’t be sure this will happen again.
    We live in uncertain times to be sure.

  2. Anti Globalism , anti -corporate and pro worker Le Pen…when right becomes left ( and left has gone right)

    From Zerohedge

    ‘Le Pen, Macron Progress To Second Round In French Presidential Election’

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-23/early-polls-shows-macron-lead-le-pen-second-live-feed

    …”Meanwhile, Le Pen, who is bidding to make history as France’s first female president, follows in the footsteps of her father, who founded the National Front and reached the second round of the presidential election in 2002. Jean-Marie Le Pen was ultimately crushed when voters from right and left rallied around the conservative Jacques Chirac in order to keep out a party whose far-right, anti-immigrant views they considered unpalatably xenophobic.

    His daughter has done much to soften her party’s image, and found widespread support among young voters by pitching herself as an anti-establishment defender of French workers and French interests against global corporations and an economically constricting EU. “The great issue in this election is the rampant globalization that is putting our civilization at risk,” she declared in her first word after results came through.

    She went on to launch an attack on the policies of Macron, whom she again described as “the money king” in a disparaging swipe at his investment banker background.

    As Reuters adds, today’s result will mean a face-off between politicians with radically contrasting economic visions for a country whose economy lags that of its neighbors and where a quarter of young people are unemployed.

  3. Sadly the ambient temperature world-wide seems to go against the left. In response to the far right neolib political establishment the disenchanted and disenfranchised are choosing to look even further to the right to the very heart of fascism.

    We have been in this situation before and the results were not good.

  4. ‘As those who have been failed by neoliberal globalisation start to turn on the political establishments who have sold their futures and aspirations away, the Left needs to get off its arse and start providing radical populist change or become politically irrelevant in an ocean of rising fury over the lost promises of democracy.’

    ………………………………………………………………………………………..

    Nailed it.

    And the ‘ identity politics’ of the last 30 – 40 years only has itself to blame.Those self absorbed smug idealists who gave nothing in reply to neo liberalism , those purists who lived in a fantasy world of their own making so long as their boat was not rocked, those benefactors of inherited wealth who had the position , time , influence and standpoint in social positions to spout off their dogmas and influence countless boards, committees and political party’s yet did nothing to alleviate the sufferings of thousands in their own country of birth , – they are now finally getting a taste of their own shit.

    Che Guevara had a particular contempt for those urbane communists who always seemed to be able to come up with some sort of excuse for being idle and putting off any realistic activism. He viewed them as ‘ useful tools’.

    And the heavy lifting was preformed by the rural populations who bloody well knew what oppression and suffering was all about.

    That is what the Left is filled with today.

    ‘ Useful tools ‘ .

    Hence I cannot blame the people of France for voting they way they are, … they have been betrayed and let down and sold off by a self absorbed and self gratifying elite , … that like Marx’s own observations,… unfortunately repeat itself over and over again until the lesson is learnt.

    Moderate nationalism is a good thing.

    People want security , people want a pride in their country, people want a decent respectable living , people want to know that their offspring will survive and not be prey to the whims of a small elite who don’t give a damn if they lived or died.

    The issue isn’t even right wing or left wing , – its nationalism and a sense of belonging and security that people want.

    And that’s true all over the world no matter where you go .

    Moderate nationalism . Not exclusivism but accommodation. And the concept of looking out for the national best interests. That’s what people want. And sometimes that doesn’t always appeal to those who think otherwise.

    And to them I say stiff bickies, mate.

    Perhaps what we are seeing in France is the early beginnings of that process. And if the people want that ? , – then who are we to deny them that.

  5. Macron looks to me the face of the establishment. Under him as President it will be business-as-usual for the global corporate hegemony to grind on wontonly looting the State.

  6. henry kissinger sure has fucked things up for everybody hasn’t he? hilary clinton’s go-to guy. The sick in the head little narcissist and Harvard educated Jew has brought the entire planet to the brink of WW3 and the hatred he manipulated out of the middle east has spread out and threatens to tank one of the greatest countries left unsullied by greedy, two dimensional, Right Wing scum. Ugh.

  7. This is what the Guardian published just minutes ago:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/apr/23/french-election-voting-under-way-in-first-round-live

    “Emmanuel Macron has beaten the far-right leader Marine Le Pen in the first round of the French presidential election, with a projected total of 23.7% to Le Pen’s 21.9%.”

    This result is not really all that astonishing, I must say, like in many developed and western countries, there is a divide in society, that goes through the middle, between those leaning towards progressive, left, liberal politics and those toward the right.

    What has evolved over more recent years though is a kind of polarisation. We can see that also the left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon had a good bit of support also, but it was not enough:
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39686993

    Macron is described as “centrist”, and he was member of the last socialist government, so he is a noeliberal of sorts, with a bit of social conscience. There is no doubt that he will have the best chance to become the next president.

    So that gave rise to the Euro raising in value, there is hope and confidence within the EU and those wanting to maintain it, that France will stay in the EU, and that nothing all that much will change, not in the short to medium term.

    And a government will be formed once parliamentary elections will have been held in June, that is when French voters will vote for their electorate representatives, and they will traditionally vote those that belong to parties. Macron is running more like an independent, so he will have to work with the next government, formed after the June elections.

    You need parties, organisations or movements to form governments, or else you will have an array of “independent” that make a country almost ungovernable. We may expect that the battle for votes in Parliament will be between socialists and the various more conservative and liberal groups of parties. Check the composition of their parliament now, it may change a bit, but will likely not change drastically, even if the French choose to vote a fair few Front Nationale members into the House.

    There is NO real chance of Marine Le Pen to become President and form a functioning government.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Parliament

    So this is much hype about the “Trump factor”, which will eventually turn out to be a historic fizzer, as that man has already lost so much credit with his turncoat actions of recent, and his adoption of Wall Street bankers into his advisors and Secretary appointments to run government. He dropped bombs in Syria, Afghanistan and talks tough to North Korea, all very different to what he said on the campaign trail. He has given in to the so called ‘Deep State’ now, he is a joke, but still a dangerous one. The hardline generals, the traditional business and banker lobbies, they pull the strings in Washington.

    http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/upfront/2017/04/trump-truth-100-days-170421103041654.html

  8. Fairly nonsense summary.
    “Marcon, a right wing moderate who wants free market reform started his own political party last year so for him to come through and win is extraordinary.”
    Macron is a former INVESTMENT BANKSTER. There will be zero reform that will result in anything but further enrichment for himself and his bankster mates (Rothschild & Cie Banque) under his rule. He is basically the Lloyd Blankfein/Jamie Dimon (Goldman Sachs/JP Morgan) of France. Lets all celebrate that becoming president.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron#Professional_career

    Bashing the “populist” movement (i.e. the disenfranchised) is exactly the wrong way to cover what is going on. Jonathan Pie explains it in his latest video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=up28hlTaqaA

    All that said, I’m sure you’ll be happy to hear that the bankster elite will almost certainly win this election, even if there is a 5% Trump/Brexit swing vote that is being missed by the polls. Viva la France.

    • Ummm

      Do you want to re-read the blog? I see no win here, it’s either a far right neoliberal who wants to bring in free market reforms – Macron or a hard right fascist like Le Pen.

      I’m not celebrating

        • He is a “Sugar Mummy Boy”, did anybody learn this?

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron

          “Personal life”

          “Macron is married to Brigitte Trogneux, who is 24 years older than him[80] and was his teacher in La Providence high school in Amiens.[81][82] They first met when he was a 15-year-old student in her class, but were only officially a couple once he was 18.[83]

          His parents initially attempted to split the couple by sending him away to Paris to finish the final year of his schooling, as they felt his youth made this relationship inappropriate,[9][83] but the couple stayed together after he graduated and married in 2007.

          They live with Trogneux’s three children from her previous marriage.[10]”

    • Oh yeah, the French are getting their younger version of a John Key then:

      “Macron is a former INVESTMENT BANKSTER.”

      Indeed:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron

      “Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron (French: [emanɥɛl makʁɔ̃]; born 21 December 1977) is a French politician, senior civil servant, and former investment banker. Born in Amiens, he studied Philosophy at Paris Nanterre University, completed a Master’s of Public Affairs at Sciences Po, and graduated from the École nationale d’administration (ENA) in 2004. He worked as an Inspector of Finances in the Inspectorate General of Finances (IGF) and then became an investment banker at Rothschild & Cie Banque.”

      They never run out of sell-able products and “talent” these Banksters, do they? And the people so gullibly fall for it.

      If Marine Le Pen does it right, she may offer that one a firm blow, exposing his past finance involvement, some on the far left may even vote her and the Front Nationale. But then she will have to deal with a new government, that will be voted for in June, first by the people voting for the Assemble Nationale.

  9. The non-vote is the real winner; around 10 million abstaining. Compare this to Macron’s “victory” of 8 million voters.

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