Gareth Morgan to run in Mt Albert? How Labour loses an electorate

By
Martyn Bradbury
-
29
13

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National’s shrewd decision to stand back and not run in Mt Albert has more potential to hurt Labour than first thought.

Jacinda and Labour need the Greens and NZ First to not run so as to keep the the peace between online activists who could destabilise the current truce that needs to hold if they want any hope of looking like a Government in waiting rather than a squabbling opposition of tribes.

So far so good, but what could throw everything out of line is if Gareth Morgan decides to stand in Mt Albert. This would be a stroke of genius on his behalf as it would allow him to showcase TOP policy which would end up making Labour’s policy look light weight in comparison.

Gareth could showcase his Party at a time when the media have nothing else to feast on, if TOP are serious expect Gareth to put his hat in the ring.

Mt Albert could turn out to be a fascinating by-election.

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29 COMMENTS

  2. Another reason apart from Joyce’s claim they don’t want to spend the money and give the people who vote National a chance to vote is the Morgan factor.

    It will be a test run and give all the parties a chance to see how this plays out.

    It will be an interesting campaign ahead of the general election in possibly either October 28th or the 4th or 11th of November 2017.

  3. Doubt it, Harry.

    He can showcase his policies, but he will not do much damage to Labour who will characterize his position as attracting the Nats, so whatever he pulls will not hurt Labour.

    I still like all the Left parties coming to the party. Why not. They will essentially be singing off the same harmonious song sheet and present a preview of governmental concord. They could even section around the issues of the day, and planning and preparation would not go amiss. It would be a great opportunity to counter media skepticism: the Greens taking climate and environment, Labour dealing with economics, regional development, housing, healthcare and jobs, New Zealand First could tackle mindful immigration and neo-liberal corruption, the Maori Party/Mana could weigh in on poverty and inequality.

    In fact, if Morgan does run, that’s not a bad thing as it will give him credibility on the Right enough to strip a sizable number of votes away from them come the General, while, in the unlikely even that he wins enough votes to have a presence, well, there are less intelligent coalition partners out there.

    • And all the Left parties, including Morgan, can then tell the homeowners of Mt. Albert how much their policies will crash the value of housing in Mt. Albert. Metiria was promising 40% at one stage, can Labour and TOP beat that.

      • You have to live somewhere.

        If you don’t leave Auckland, you are buying and selling on the same market.

        Those over exposed can take due warning now. Plenty of time to sell up. No one need suffer unduly. If purchases were made on sound financing decisions, the buyers will just have to suck up their bad choices.

        That said, around the rest of the country after the last house-price crash a few years ago, some property lost that kind of percentage, initially.

        However, the main focus will be on low-end housing and State rentals along with parallel track solutions, like regional development. House prices per se are unlikely to figure in the debates as no one can bring the subject up to attack the Left without labeling themselves as enablers of the house-price crisis.

    • gee nick..you are sounding remarkable like those ‘smug’ clinton staffers who sneered @ the warning being issued by the bernie people..

      i say..run gareth..!..run..!..

      show labour up for the shallow do-nothings they are..

      littles’ latest puke-inducing statement was promising that no changes would be made until a labour second term..because he ‘needs a mandate’..(!)

      it’s called the fucken ’17 election..mr little..!

      make your promises/policies then..argue them there..that is ys fucken ‘mandate’..not four yrs from now..

      do-nothing/neoliberal-incrementalist bastards..(that is a defininition of little/labour..)

      i hope morgan kicks them into fucken touch..

  5. At least our version of “Trump” is classier and more respected than the US version.

    IN terms of advancing the socialist cause , nil gain if either Labour or M organ wins.

  6. I think Jacinda would beat Gareth handily – party loyalty is a thing – but the contrast between a slanging match of smears and denials from some shabby Gnat trougher, and a reasoned policy debate about how to resolve a number of pressing economic and social justice issues would represent an elevation of NZ politics – one which the better Labour politicians would find refreshing.

      • Yes, you are talking about new ideas in macroeconomics. It would be a good debate to have during an election campaign because tax policy impacts the whole country, and the whole country is voting. The residents of Mt Albert are not voting on our tax policy so Morgan’s stuff is irrelevant and will not be given very much coverage.

        Think back to Mt Roskill and how narratives on themes of national conscience such as crime, transport and housing were constantly skewed back to the local: ‘how many police officers for Mt Roskill though?’, ‘light rail for Mt Roskill’, and ‘how many houses would Mt Roskill get, and where are our SHAs?’.

        Morgan’s stuff is too ephemeral and hard to make relevant in a local battle like this.

        Besides, he also has to sign up activists and organisers and volunteers for next year. Kinda hard to do after being crushed at the polls.

        • you are comparing apples and oranges by citing mt roskill and mt albert..

          that was neoliberal nat vs. neoliberal labour…

          if morgan stands the conversation/coverage will skew to examine/argue the solutions he is proffering..

  11. So, right wing Nactional beat their own Muldoon and got into power in 1984 by stealth.

    Right-wing Nactional tried to buy a leader by an underhand backing of Shane Jones for Labour leader against Cunliffe.

    Right-wing Nactional withdraws from Mt Albert to clear the way for a new Colin Craig/David Seymour Gareth Morgan.

    Priceless

    • Darth Smith above is quite right.

      The brainless media will rise like morning trout to the gaudy Gareth Morgan fly.

      But debates should suddenly start to sound adult as they discuss genuine solutions to genuine problems with a collegial tone, given that all parties realise that it will eventually be a victory parade for Jacinda Ardern, while the National turnout, given that they don’t have a candidate, will be microscopic.

      Great symbolic theatre.

  12. So, right wing Nactional beat their own Muldoon and got into power in 1984 by stealth.

    Right-wing Nactional tried to buy a leader by an underhand backing of Shane Jones for Labour leader against Cunliffe.

    Right-wing Nactional withdraws from Mt Albert to clear the way for a new Colin Craig/David Seymour Gareth Morgan.

    Priceless

  13. Jacinda better start posing with cats!

    …personally I don’t think Jacinda (who opposed/undermined David Cunliffe) has done a good job in her portfolios, unlike Annette King

    …people may well find Gareth with his BIG Kahuna more to their inspiration ( except the cat lovers)

  14. Jacinda is sound bites, not real substance. Cunliffe was indeed the best they had for leader at that point in time, way better than many of the others that stood.

  15. Gareth Morgan said they would be a list only, forgive me in wrong but didn’t that mean they don’t stand in electorates?

    If I’m correct, then why are you wasting effort with false scenarios Martyn?

    • Not quite so false, actually, Doug.

      The Greens also primarily contest elections for Party Votes only. Standing candidates in by-elections (a) raises their profile and (b) does give voters an alternative to the Big Two.

      Having said that, electorates are still fought on the archaic First Past the Post basis, so Option 2 would be unlikely.

  16. How many Mt Albert residents have cats, and how many know what Gareth thinks about cats, that is the most important question to ask here, to test his “popularity”.

    I doubt Gareth Morgan has a chance of winning the Mt Albert seat, this is just fantasy stuff, I reckon.

    • you are missing the point mia – he doesn’t ‘need to win’…he just needs to get a decent chunk of the vote to prove the viability of his party/ideas..

      plus it will be a good dress-rehearsal for the general election later in the year..

      hard to think of a reason why he shouldn’t run..actually..

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