The case for a NZ snap election now

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National is in deep trouble and they know it. The shock resignation by John Key (the why of which has still not been investigated) has left National high and dry. The cavalcade of mutant circus freaks vying for leader of the National Party reminds you their talent pool is more of a shallow puddle.

It will be English as Leader and Bridges as Deputy. Judith will get knocked out of the first round of voting, and English will make enough concessions to backbenchers to give Bridges the Deputy role. While Paula is the puppet who has been groomed for Leadership to stop Collins getting it, her recent claims to have fixed the homelessness problem while 41000 are homeless highlights how utterly out of her depth Bennett really is.

Judith is playing the long game and is pitching her case over the Caucus to the hard right membership. English can’t trust her not to wage a guerrilla war against him over the next 10 months so desperately needs the pretence of legitimacy going to the Polls early would give him.

English will want to go to the Polls early before the property bubble bursts next year and to prevent another bloody nose from the looming by-election in Mt Albert now Shearer is leaving.

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If English holds on for another 10 months, he will become overwhelmed from power fights within his own Party and the constant attack by the Opposition that they have no mandate. If National go now, they might be able to squeak in, if they wait they could be toast.

 

31 COMMENTS

  1. re…”National is in deep trouble and they know it.”

    AGREED!

    …but from the mainstream media you would think everything is absolutely hunky-dory

    … for blinglish nact…since jonkey nact has left the country in such a great financial state and good working order

    • “As the noted author A.J. Liebling wrote: “Freedom of the press is guaranteed only to those who own one.” Today, a handful of multinational corporations — Comcast, the Walt Disney Company, News Corp, Time Warner, Viacom and CBS — control much of what the American people see, hear and read. Media is not just about what is covered and how it is covered. More importantly, it is about what is not covered. And those decisions, of what is and is not covered, are not made in the heavens. They are made by human beings who often have major conflicts of interest.”

      Trevett
      Young
      O’Sullivan
      Roughlan
      Hosking

      All Herald opinionist’s, but only opine in the interests of the right wing. Can someone prove me wrong?

    • @ HIGHERSTANDARD.

      It’s always so encouraging and enlightening to see new words brought to the debate.

      Where, exactly, did you get the word ‘ Fucktardation’ . Sounds like a word a white American teenage mutant masturbator with pimple issues might use?

      Are you a white American teenage mutant masturbator with pimple issues @ HIGHERSTANDARD? Or is that on your ‘ bucket list’ ?

      1000000000000000000000000 + 1 % >infinity dumbass.
      Seen Idiocracy? Your name’s in the credits. Seriously, look it up.

  2. Its hard not to have to constantly muffle ones mirth – especially when the right wing trolls start up in defence of their dearly departed leader ( and being in the denial of grief still… ) the fact that the Smiling Assassin has not only shafted the country – but ironically , – has had the last laugh on them ( the trolls ).

    The Smiling Assassin – the final act of his departure being the shitting all over of and disintegration of the very party that in their blind loyalty supported him.

    And yes, … the new leader will be the Double Dipper, … and he will have a hard time between his non existent personality and all the other seething factions who have been suppressed for 9 long years holding it together. So much so that we can only look forward to an artificial calm that constantly threatens to surface and then blow sky high when it is perceived by those factions that the time is right to mount a challenge.

    THAT is what the inner core of this National party has TRULY been all these years …

    And THAT is the final gift the Smiling Assassin gave to his own party.

    Political oblivion.

  3. Considering all the fawning and collaboration of the Natz to their late leader, JonKey, can’t say any of them are suitable.
    They are too quick to please whoever is in charge, without regards to their constituents, or their conscience.

    • They are too quick to please whoever is in charge, without regards to their constituents, or their conscience.

      That’s the general condition of authoritarian followers. They follow their leaders mindlessly. It’s why their political parties always end up being run by sociopaths.

  4. Several months ago, I predicted there would be an early election, probably in the new year. My chances of being right have taken a big leap forward although I freely admit that I didn’t even consider Key would resign (not many did!).
    There is another reason why National may go for a snap election – quite simply they may strike while the John Key brand is still hot. The longer they go towards the next due date (November) the cooler the John Key brand will become until it no longer works for them.
    If they go for a snap election soon, they will have John Key hopping around the country as if he is still PM and hoodwinking the sleepy hobbits into believing he will always be there and is just taking a sabbatical. Of course this will be complete b…s but National never let the truth get in the way of a good piece of fiction.
    English will be pushed to the sideline, the media will follow Key around and laugh at his antics just like in the good old days. National’s campaign will be led by a person who won’t even be there after the vote. Totally dishonest of course, but so typically National.
    That is if they do it soon.
    If they leave it too late the John Key factor will have gone cold and National will have to campaign the old fashioned way – on its policies and that will spell disaster for National because their policies for the last 9 years have started and ended with Key. They have nothing much else going for them, and no obvious successor with the same b…s charisma.
    As they used to say in the puppet series “Stingray” – “anything could happen in the next half hour”.

    • Key resigns, English is Key’s proxy PM, Key becomes top donor to national party, donating the maximum amount legally, which is made public to give the illusion that its all above board then sets up factious donors to donate to national party & is not linked to him directly, therefore having major say in what national do even though he is not PM

  5. Two things:
    1. They don’t have a mandate now, the coalition Nat/Maori/Act/UF got 49.27% of the party vote at the last election.
    2. Bridges? This is the guy who is committed to providing “stability and change”. Plonker.

  6. All the reasons are good ones.
    All are potentially problematic for the Opposition.
    Solution: get busy now. negotiate with the Maori Party and talk to Winston. Find an election slogan that is not just hot air.
    Gear up.
    Monday morning, Annette King resigns from Deputy position to be replaced by Jacinda Ardern or even Stuart Nash to placate the centre.
    Do it before the Nats announce their pick and foot tap their victory lap.
    This is for the appearance of Fresh Blood and new enthusiasm in a rejuvenated party.
    (This is not at all anti Annette who has done a good job. She will know very well this is the right time to make a bit of space at the top. It should be her announcement. No question of pushing or arm-twisting.
    It needs to be done soon or it will look like a knee jerk reaction should Simon Bridges get the nod.

    Energy, enthusiasm and organisation.

    The best possible new candidate to take up spaces and a few old stagers and under-performers to move on. You know who you are. So do we. Michael Wood was a great candidate, we need many more of his calibre.

    The fact is that the argument for an early election is compelling.

    We had better work on the assumption it is going to happen or just sty flat-footed and get gezumped.

  7. Coleman is the only contender with a shred of credibility – but less intelligent than he pretends or he’d have aimed for deputy – leaving him as the uniter to pick up the pieces as Bill’s wheels fall off. Bennett is a strong contender for vice – a facade of gender-balanced representation makes her a more plausible foil than the mutton-headed vacuity of Bridges, and none dare turn their back on Judith. Surprising that Joyce has made no play – as the guy actually running things you’d think he might have wanted the comfy chair. Maybe he knows things are going to get a little boisterous.

  8. Bill English seems if you believe the MSM has the support to take the leadership.

    The problem is he has the charisma of a gall stone, totally uninspiring which is a massive difference to the clown we have has doing circus tricks for the last eight years.

    Sure the case could be there for an early dissolution.

    Who knows what the state of things will be in Sept- Nov the possible months for a general election.

    Bill as seen as steady , boring, business as usual , in other words doing nothing, the status quo.

    His instinct will be to have a full year next year, delivering the budget in May where Joyce will deliver tax cuts , they have to because they have nothing else to offer.

    May be a family support package.

    The MSM will still be onside so the message wont change.

    Two areas of thought in a early election ( A snap election is not likely ) unless some of the caucus walks.

    1- The caucus wants to go early in the year and possibly avoid a Mt Albert by-election and a possible defeat that would bring and sell a new line up (which it is not ) and go to the country using up the large poll support they seem to have.

    2- They deliver tax cuts in May bed that in and if Labour are still polling 25-33% they go to the country early for a winter election , July-August.

    Just as Helen did in 2002 in her first term and ironically in that election Bill led National to their greatest defeat in one hundred years with 20% of the part vote.

    They are well positioned for an earl election, plenty of money in the bank, possible family package, MSM support which is a huge weapon in their armoury and a big public support for now.

    Martyn we could well be facing an earlier election based on current political choices we have now so you have raised an important possibility.

    Its what i would do if i was the PM.

  9. It pisses me off that politicians elected for a three year term can change their minds at a whim and swan off to “greener pastures”. Time to start billing MPs who don’t work out their full terms, without good reason. Why should the taxpayer keeping paying for endless by-elections???

    • Billy Boy has had his days the fact that key recommended him should be reason alone to get rid of him Key has shown he has no guts or backbone to make the hard decisions the very thing he told others they need to have. key has had his time now he needs to stay completely out of it he didn’t want the job he is tired and said he gave his best and cited family issues. What about the NZ families with no where to live John, no jobs, no help for their sick children of family members. He forgets about all the families him and his policies have hurt and that are suffering. Key thinks its all a game but he is playing with peoples lives here an d he don’t care. Wake up Nzers before it is too late.

    • Yes! And those obscene pensions and perks.

      And the OTT salary inflates, backdated, of course.

      NO MORE!

      I wonder if Gareth Morgan has a position on this…?

  10. Key was the glue that held National together in the same way Clark held Labour together. National will disintegrate with infighting and likely endless leadship chnages (just like Labour post Clark). We’re poised now to have a choice between TWO basket cases to lead the country. w00t!

  11. So, the Double Dipping Dipton Dribbler is, or at least soon will be, our Honourable Prime Minister. ‘Prime’… Has a certain ring to it does it not? ‘Honourable’ has a ring to it too, followed by a little bit of sick.
    A dodgy little Catholic Crook and worse still, a farmer. A southland Farmer. Almost as soulless a breed as some Canterbury Farmers.
    When our farm was sold out from under our noses by the swindler manager of the BNZ in Timaru at the time, aided and abetted by a generally corrupt BNZ waging war on family farmers using Don Brashes 22% interest rates as a weapon of choice, the first to stick their noses into the auction rooms office sniffing for a bargain as a consequence of our misery were our fellow farmers. Big Country types, the proud and noble types you see depicted in cheese commercials or bashing 4×4’s around with their dicks in their hands, looking for a killer bargain for their inbred progeny. ( Me? Bitter? Fuck yes! )
    Little ‘ Good Boy ‘ Billy could propel NZ into unimaginable prosperity by deftly managing farmers, their export earned money and urban workers to feed an increasingly hungry world but he can’t. He can never lift the lid off that particular can of worms. To show what could have been if it were not for the cons and swindles of his fellow dodgy farmer mates, the ones who sit/sat around the board room tables of the producer boards. The ones who had sway over the BNZ at the time, the Fay/Richwhite inner circle types.
    We would see, with our own eyes, what horrible bastards they were, and are, and of how we Kiwis are now suffering to pay for their greed.
    Little ‘ Good Boy ‘ Billy is a Catholic boy is he? He’ll know all about burning in Hell then.

  12. Martyn this article is ludicrous.
    “”Nat in deep trouble”” fact = Nat 45% plus . What would you call a mandate Martyn Labour at 25%/?
    “” cavalcade of mutant circus freaks vying for leader of the National Party ” fact = a prearranged succession

    The only problem that blue rinse Nat has Martyn is growing Nationalism, antagonism to elitism, but not you progressive socialists.
    NZ First will take 17% plus in the coming 2017 Immigration and Democracy election.

  13. Nazional strategy, aided by corporate owned media, has been to sell the fake Key brand. This proved almost impossibly successful, thanks to corrupt lazy journalism and the wide eyed gullibility of the traditional Nazional voter. It was ridiculously simple; Good news – you saw Key’s face and name. Bad news – and the Teflon Don would be nowhere to be seen, and a patsy would front up instead to face the (un)critical press.
    But short term gain is followed by long term pain with such a strategy.
    The sudden departure of the Key brand name has exposed the talentless acolytes who could only survive as mere parasites in the “keep-Key-clean-at-all-costs” paradigm.
    And now, finally and despite the cheerleading, the Nazional voter has to confront the fact that the current government is indeed the talentless, corrupt, venal and specious bunch of dropkicks we always knew they were.
    And whilst Key’s hasty departure (for whatever reason(s)) may be seen as good news the real questions remain. How do we remove the scourge of neoliberalism from this country, and how do we get anyone in a position of power to take climate change seriously??

  14. Dear Santa
    For Christmas I would like a speed up to the rolling out of the 6,000 (or is it 60,000?) technological advancements that the Cabal has hidden from humanity thereby keeping it in groundhog day for the last 100 (or is it 500) years! Especially high on my “want list” is a replicator so I don’t have to worry about having nothing to wear. Oh, and a spaceship (you know Santa, one like the Jepson’s had all those years ago) would be nice.
    Oh, and thank you Santa for NESARA which has finally arrived.
    xxx
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yjy-fnsmWR4

  15. Just thinking about the way this has unfolded, is 2017 actually a “good election to lose”?
    When the housing market collapses, who-ever is in power will have a hell of a mess to clean-up – and if this is set to happen next year, then going to the polls early to hand it off to the left is the ultimate cynical act of a sick Government.

    • I know of Jack Mormons, there are plenty of Jack Catholics also, who pretend they follow their faith, maybe that is the gathering loyal Bill the Blinglish also belongs to, just a thought.

  16. If we have a snap election, it will be a Schnaps election, as it will be a disaster for the left and the country, believe you me.

    English can ride high on the left over capital and credit from a make belief “great PM” the media created, and the common, dumbed down public believed and sucked up to. He can still sell his budgets with the same spin, as long as immigration props up the economic “growth” figures, and as long as banks lend to developers, builders, and some who want to build more highways or rebuild earthquake ridden areas.

    The people are blinded, brainwashed to the extreme, they will rely on the fake economy, on fake truth and more fake news, as long as it is fed to them. Only once the cracks will show, when the bubble in Auckland and elsewhere collapses, will they wake up and get angry.

    So the sooner an election, the better for English and Nats and ACT, they want it, they deny they need it, but they want it, as it will keep them in power and under control until 2020, yep, til then.

    Labour are delusional thinking that an early election may benefit them, it will NOT, it will do anything else. So Mr Little, go back to your study room, go and discuss this will REAL strategists, and work something smarter out. If you need help, I have some bloody good ideas and strategies, but you would never contact me, would you?

    Best of luck anyway.

  17. We learned today, this prediction was not quite correct, Bennett has got it, as expected and feared, the cabinet is a lot dumber with her, the leadership too, that is promising for the opposition.

    Simon Bridges may be ideological, at times pragmatic, has a funny accent, but he is smarter than Bennett, so the government will lose for choosing her, that is cabinet, let them walk and fall.

  18. There is a tendency by the left to assume National is in trouble. This is almost never true apart from when National’s polling went down to 23% many years ago.

    The fact of the matter is that the only thing that would cause National a mild headache would be if those people adversely affected by their policies got out and voted.

    Crowing about their problems is unproductive. All available energy needs to be directed towards defeating them at the 2017 polls.

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