Watch Simon Bridges and Maggie Barry to decide who is National’s next leader

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And the blades are suddenly out, after Key’s shock resignation, the unseen factions are in open war.

Here’s how it breaks down.

Bill English – The power behind the throne, Bill doesn’t want the leadership because he knows he has the personality of stale bread. His precious privatisation agenda in Housing has stalled and his desire to use big data to spy on beneficiaries hasn’t progressed as fast as he’d want. English prefers to work behind the scenes rather than front foot National’s ideological campaigns. Won’t want this.

Paula Bennett – Sean as easy to manipulate by English and Joyce, she is the preference to take the fall if National lose in 2017.

Steven Joyce – Despite being Mr Fixit, he’s loathed by the various factions within National, isn’t trusted with the PMship.

Judith Collins – Everyone is too terrified by what Collins would actually do with the job to back her, but she has many acolytes in the backbenches.

The real sign as to who will become leader will be who Simon Bridges and Maggie Barry support. Barry has worked hard to build networks in the backbencher while Bridges is seen as the future of the Party.

 

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13 COMMENTS

  1. I find your analysis the best of any one’s. Not always right but with a higher strike rate than anyone else I can think of.

  2. Paula Bennett… viewed too much as the ‘ joke ‘ of the party – and that’s by the National party itself. More to do with her antics , – somewhat less to do with her ‘ Peg’ image and penchant for fake leopard skins . Her record of executing Keys social policy’s ,( housing , welfare ) coupled the public’s image in general of her as being a ‘ Westy bully’ and past gaffes rule her out completely.

    Stephen Joyce. No. Wont happen. Lacks the credibility in the public’s eye. Not to mention the general embarrassment of being known internationally as the ‘ Dildo Guy ‘. For further proof of his unsuitability under pressure- refer back to the Lisa Owen interview between Grant Robertson and Joyce. Also his inability to run a political campaign – both Northland and Roskill as examples , discredits business confidence in his ability to steward the party on a permanent basis.

    Judith Collins. Would be a gift to the Left. Orivida would stalk her every move and be in the back of the public’s mind at every executive decision she made . Notwithstanding also her penchant for divisiveness and abrasive style would soon alienate her MP’s. A coup against her by other factions would almost certainly occur 1 year out from her taking power.

    Which leaves only Bill English . The ‘ Double Dipper’ . Again , another gift to the Left although , – like the man himself , – not in such a flamboyant fashion as Judith Collins. Would soon get offside with the general public by lacking the persuasiveness of Key in selling off of state assets , would return a lackluster showing in the polls for preferred PM similar to what he did before. Coupled with that lack of social popularity that Key enjoyed, English’s far right wing neo liberalism would easily and quite quickly be turned against him,… with essentially the same results as the last time he was PM.

    In conclusion , we are now looking at a long period of instability in the National party , and, – as importantly , – the decline of the effectiveness of the National party PR machine.

    The likes of David Farrar and others will now find it far harder to get any forwards movement on any of the above simply due to past scandals , gaffes , lack of public popularity , competencies and credibility. This is in direct contrast to John Key , who , as we all know , – entered NZ politics lacking initially at least , – any known form of baggage barring vague suspicions of his time in the Forex markets.

    • Some good points made there WK. All I have to add is to point out the parallels between Key and another “outsider” who walked into high office with a background in investment rather than politics, and used a corporate PR charm offensive to cover both his lack of coherent policy and his grotesque ponytail-pulling/ pussy-grabbing habits.

      Imagine, if you will, that Labour had been in government for the last 8 years instead of National, and Key was only coming into politics now. It would have been Labour that was pushing the TPP under leaders like Goff and Shearer. Key would have presented himself as an “anti-establishment” candidate and used a token opposition to the “free trade” agenda to win the top office, just like Trump did. In either 4 or 8 years time, the glamour will fade, and plenty in the US will be just as thrilled to finally get rid of Trump and his corporatocracy as we are today to be rid of Key.

    • Excellent observation WK, I cant see SS Joyce as a follower behind Binglish as he likes to command everything, as we saw during the grant Robinson debarkle.

      So it may be someone young and new to become Binglish running mate to show the new youth vote?

    • But he certainly created some baggage while in office.

      For 8 years he has tried to be everything to everybody – the mincing fool, the rugby and cricket blokes’-bloke-brown-noser in the changing sheds, the shock jock, the hair-puller, false-flag raiser, TPPA champion, GCSB chief executive with the power to hire school buddies, SkyCity convention centre backroom dealer, Kim Dotcom Judas Escariot to the FBI, selling NZ actors’ rights to Warner Brothers for a few more extra pieces of Hollywood silver…. and the list goes on.

      Did I miss anything? Might run through some John Oliver Youtubes for some inspiration.

  3. Yep. They don’t have much time to polish another turd for 2017, although I’m quite sure Stacey Kirk, Claire Trevett, Audrey Young, Mike Hosking, Paul Henry and numerous other cheerleaders will have free reign to do so.

    • Oh shit! Quicksilver, you made my day with your “They don’t have much time to polish another turd for 2017, ”

      Brilliant mate.

  4. Is it possible Key got a heads up on what’s coming in the next year or two and doesn’t want that to be his “legacy” (i.e. what he’s remembered for)? Is National really only looking for a political patsy to run out the remainder of their term, knowing full well they will be all but unelectable in the upcoming economic landscape?

  5. The National Party will be run by whomever Michelle Boag says it will. End of story. Key didn’t resign, he was stage-managed out of it by Boag and the deathly “Hollows”. Watch this space!

  6. Simon Bridges press conference announcing his bid for deputy leader –
    “My candidacy is about my commitment to strength, stability, change and rejuvenation”.
    … and defeating the Labour/Greens at the next election.

    Wow, think of the prospect of having an oxymoron as deputy leader.

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