TDB SPECIAL: 1 year out from 2017 election – the Battlefields

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With just 12 months until the 2017 election, where are we at and where will we be going into the 2017 election?

OVERVIEW:

The National Party of NZ still holds an unprecedented lead in the polls. No other political party in modern history has ever enjoyed so much support, but like the 2014 and 2011 election before that, the tipping points are deceptively close and no one can guarantee National a fourth term. The Opposition need to rally their bases, pull in some of the missing million AND win over National voters. It won’t be easy, but this election will be held in the shadow of populist anger sweeping Trump and Brexit to power, so anything is possible.

 

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BATTLEFIELDS: 

Provinces: National have a real battle on their hands with NZ First attacking their provincial base. As the engines of the economy, the provinces don’t feel National have delivered the infrastructure they believe their exports deserve. Winston is perfectly placed with Shane Jones being lined up for an electorate run and there is every chance that NZ First could end up being the 3rd largest Party, beating the Greens. NZ First’s gains will come from National voters this time around.

Auckland: The Opportunity Party has the most to gain here from appealing to educated urban National voting males who vote National by default who will be attracted by Morgan’s solutions based policies. The Greens will be pushing for the millennial vote and Labour need to convince workers, Maori and Pacific Island voters to drive a hard 2 tick campaign to maximise their Party vote. National won’t be able to promise Auckland anything that opens them to criticism from provincial voters.

South Auckland: National have put an enormous amount of energy into breaking Labour’s hold over the South by appealing to the new aspirations of middle class Maori and Pacific Islander’s who benefitted from Helen Clark’s investments into tertiary education. It’s been successful but as PI employment has lagged and housing crisis become worse, much of National’s empty promises look far less appealing. Labour need to tap into the new political energy in the Pacific community of they are to have any hope of winning.

Maori Electorates: This is where things get really interesting because different outcomes can create different MMP impacts. If the Maori Party win more seats than they get party vote they could create an overhang that pushes the number National needs to make a majority up. If Labour lose their Maori seats yet manage to get a 30% Party vote, many of the Maori candidates they lose in Maori electorates would then come in off the list. Also, if MANA can gain 1.2% alongside the Te Tai Tokerau electorate they will bring in an extra MNP off the Party list. MANA and Maori Party MoU looks like it will be far smarter than the one Labour and the Greens adopted in that they will not directly stand against each other to assure beating Labour.

Social Media: The Greens will dominate this arena but most Green activists can’t help their smug sense of self satisfaction polluting everything they champion so expect a lot of social media bickering. It will be terribly tedious. The Maori Party are best placed to be maximise their presence. Expect the Young Nats and ACT Youth Wing to say and do something really stupid.

Mainstream Media:Watch the last episode of The Nation to see how much it reeked of a small inside club chatting amongst itself. The media elites who failed to see Brexit or Trump will miss the same forces moving within our country. NZME is 86% owned by banks and their agenda and interests to ensure National remain in power is the narrative that is championed by their corporate media mouthpieces. Political Parties need to use their own direct messaging to voters and be prepared to challenge the pundits rather than allowing them to set the parameters of the debate.

 

 

24 COMMENTS

  1. Seems no body is reading your stuff today Martyn or if they are they don’t think it’s worth commenting on.

  2. So, is Hone Harawira going to support the National party then? becasue an MoU with the untrustworthy Maori party, that just sold out to National again over the RMA, always supports National and has done so for 8 years.

    I thought Hone said he doesn’t support any party that supports National.

      • Why do you support Winston Peters after he told voters to not vote Mana?

        Why on earth would Hone support National and the Maori party after what they have done?

        • i support Winston because he is not a hypocrite…he did not support Harawira because he Einston doesn’t support politics based on race

          (that is Winston’s stand and you can agree or disagree with it..personally I disagree and voted Mana/Internet last time)

          Labour on the other hand is hypocritical because it shot down and actively sought to defeat a Harawira and the Mana Party which is a grassroots Left Party and should have been Labour’s coalition partner

          ( this indicates that Labour is either not a Left Party or it can not work cooperatively with parties more Left than itself)

  3. re …”their smug sense of self satisfaction polluting everything they champion…”

    The Green Party used to be made up of original anti establishment independent thinkers and hairy skinny activists…cutting edge imo

    ….but now I have to agree Green supporters are often the smug and self righteous comfortable well padded middle class … non thinkers who fancy themselves… trendo pseudo Lefties ( friends of the Nacts) …they have found their home

    …just like those who smugly who support war criminal ‘feminist’ Hillary Clinton and are outraged by anyone else who can think independently for themselves …and dissent from the corrupt corporate Democrats

    • That’s an over the top opinion, why bring US politics into it, you sound like you have become an extremist Chooky.

      • @ WORDS…”extremist”?!…that slips easily off the tongue from you doesnt it?…you are the voice of the Labour Party hierarchy aren’t you? …any one else is an “extremist”? …if they question or express skepticism or criticise ( I expect you also support spying on New Zealanders …Labour certainly hasnt opposed Nactional on this, unlike other political parties on the Left)…too bad Labour got rid of David Cunliffe the grassroots Labour Party membership choice.

        …the question is entirely relevant …I have met Greens supporters who are rabid Clinton supporters …no discussion or variance of opinion tolerated…strict adherence to the msm and any other media is “fake news” ( if you support Trump you are a fascist, racist, sexist…end of discussion)

        question: …does the Green Party support Hillary Clinton and the Democrats like Andrew Little has said he does?

        ….if so they are supporting corporate control, neoliberalism, TPPA, open borders, open immigration and warmongering in the Middle East and against Russia…

        …Jill Stein ( USA Greens has a somewhat ambivalent position…on the one hand she has said Clinton is a warmonger and more likely to start a nuclear war…on the other hand she is initiating a recount with the help of funding from Democrat establishment and the endorsement of Hillary Clinton)

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