New TVNZ Poll highlights how hard 2017 election will be

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Screen Shot 2016-09-06 at 7.48.04 amPoll Rugburn

The latest TVNZ poll is a stark reminder to those who oppose this Government that 2017 will be a hard fight.

TVNZ has National at 48% and Labour at 26%. Every other poll I’ve seen including the internals has National at 40-45 and Labour 30-33. The possibility that this is a rogue poll can’t be ruled out at all.

But it is a stark reminder that National have architected an incredible electoral support base. With Paul Henry in the morning through to Mike Hosking at night, most media are dominated by hard right broadcasters who serve as Government cheerleaders. The exploitative student and work visa migration scams fuel the housing crisis which in turn makes National voters speculating in the property bubble National have nurtured feel rich and assure a tick for National once every 3 years.

Meanwhile those most damaged by the draconian welfare reforms are simply becoming so disconnected and distrustful of Government agencies, they swell the missing million NZers who see no hope in voting.

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The challenge for Labour is to now reach out to those who see no point in voting and convince them that a Labour Government could make their lives materially better. Labour won’t be able to do that to those National voting property speculators because only higher prices are going to make them happier.

Andrew Little needs to spend every day of the Mt Roskill by-election hammering home his narrative of the two NZs and use that media attention to seize the initiative.

Labour’s decision to move Matt McCarton to Auckland to set up their first HQ shows how seriously Labour are taking their ground game and messaging in Auckland for the election.

Labour need to bide their time, this is not the moment to panic.

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42 COMMENTS

  1. Wow – that’s an amazingly pertinent quote from Cicero – but didn’t the assassination of Caesar lead to the end of the Roman republic with the Emperor assuming all power?

    • It is said that leadership is efficient but no matter what formula you choose to calculate leadership the results are always leadership is inefficient

  2. Yes agree Martyn its going to be one hell of a nasty fight the 2017 elections. When you have a party like the gnats who are power hungry, controlling, unethical, unprincipled, crooked, nasty and manipulative you have to fight fire with fire as water won’t work.

    • Also, Key wants the legacy of a 4th term. Getting the boot on the 3rd term makes him just another turn of the NZ political wheel. Getting a 4th makes him something special. You bet he’s gonna be fighting for that.

  3. Andrew is doing a good job considering.

    I just think Lab- Green are not paying to their strengths and instead going for side issues that are more Nat issues such as the economy and housing, that are very polarising and one dimensional. No one is getting inspired by some home building as a point of difference which is not a point of difference as National are saying the same thing.

    Labour need to focus on big picture. Most people can work out that Globalism is really affecting their lives from climate change and pollution to jobs opportunities and wages.

    But have yet to see a ‘big picture’ approach from Labour in particular. They need to inspire people. Think nuclear Free – where NZ actually took a hard stand on an issue and communicated it well.

    Labour seem to think the public are as cold hearted as some Labour MP’s come across in interviews. On Waatea episode can’t remember her name but a Labour MP, said that most people didn’t care about child slavery and global work conditions if they could get a cheap iPhone. She sounded like a Nat MP, and not true at all in my view. Maybe those are Nat voters, but not Labour voters who think that. And why off shore when you can just get 166,000 temp work visas in NZ? Take the slavery on shore and the profits off shore. Sound great! sarc.

    As for housing, no vote will come out of that and more likely to scare voters back to National. Housing is a polarising clusterfuck of an issue.

    If the Greens concentrated more on environment which they are known for, they would get more votes than advocating crashing the property market. They fucked up last time with that approach. For gods sake do they want to make a difference and get into power or not????

    • In reply to Savenz ….. As you already know I have commented elsewhere that Labour is failing to make an impact. You claim below that “Andrew is doing a good job considering.” If you don’t mind my saying so you then proceed to show that he isn’t. I would love to see him follow your advice but I wouldn’t hold my breath. He has had ample time to show what he is made of.

    • ‘Labour need to focus on big picture.’

      I personally had discussions with Andrew Little on ‘the big picture’, and he has a copy of the book which covers all of it: psychology, environment, energy systems, the financial system, GDP, creation of money out of thin air, control of society by corporations etc. (Unless he has thrown it in the rubbish bin.)

      He ran, scared, five years ago, and is still running, scared.

      Avoiding the big picture is an essential requirement of being a politician in the western world. That’s why we are experiencing a rapid decline, why the political system offers no hope of salvation, and why an increasing portion of the populace is disengaging from the political system.

  4. “If ignorant both of your enemy and yourself, you are certain to be in peril.” ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

    Since the western political system is geared to maintaining the control that banks and corporations have over western societies, that control cannot be broken via the political system. And until the control is broken, nothing will change [for the better], and everything that matters -everything from the environment to social conditions- will continue to be made worse.

    That is why it is so important for people to recognise that concrete and steel buildings do not fall to the ground with freefall acceleration unless demolition charges cut through the structural steel to remove resistance.

    ‘To make a long story short, NIST, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, has been forced to admit that for 2.25 seconds WTC7 (which, by the way, was not hit by any aircraft on that day), was collapsing at free-fall acceleration. This is only possible if 8 floors of this huge buildings were removed instantly and symmetrically. And that, my friends, is only doable by the use of carefully placed explosives.’

    http://thesaker.is/the-911-truth-movement-15-years-later-where-do-we-stand/

    It is vitally important that people recognise that 9/11 was an inside job, orchestrated by the Bush administration (perhaps with some planning done during Clinton’s time, Clinton being deeply involved in the scandals of Wall Street, Iraq and Yugoslavia etc.), and that the true nature of 9/11 was covered up by both the Bush and Obama administrations.

    ‘At this point, it would be fair to say that the 9/11 Truth movement has proven the “controlled demolition” theory beyond a reasonable doubt.’

    Recognising the true nature of 9/11 -an inside job geared to silencing whistleblowers, whilst providing an opportunity to deal with asbestos-laden buildings and providing a pretext for profitable invasions of two nations- opens the door to recognising that those in power could not care less about the lives of the ordinary people and are simply using ordinary people as pawns in their wealth-acquisition and power agendas.

    The international money-lenders, transnational corporations and those behind the scenes are not bothered whether National, or Labour, or NZ First, or Greens forms the next government because they have them ALL under control.

    ‘The fact that no real investigation was ever launched or that nobody was ever arrested for the crimes of 9/11 is not the fault of the 9/11 Truth movement but a direct result of the kind of ignorance, passivity and general stupidification which the Empire has successfully imposed on most of its population.’

    ‘I am hardly in a position to criticize others for having such difficulties to come to terms with the immense consequences of the “controlled demolition” theory (this is what usually scares people away, the realization that “if 9/11 was an inside job then…”). Another powerful deterrent is the social and professional stigma attached to being a “fringe lunatic” or “conspiracy theorist” (sometimes even “anti-Semite” and “Holocaust denier”) just for daring the question the official fairytale. Of course, the stakes are sky-high: if 9/11 was an inside job, then the US government is not only absolutely illegitimate, it is in fact an occupation government controlled by either foreign elements, or traitors or both. And there are those who will deliberately stick their head in the sands as deep as possible to avoid to have to contemplate the mind-blowing consequences of the undeniable fact that the so-called “land of the brave” is run by an occupation government which has reduced the so-called “brave” to a serf-like status and that several thousands of US Americans have been deliberately sacrificed to induce a mindless patriotic hysteria (with Chinese-made flags and all) to make it possible to use the poorest US Americans as canon fodder in genocidal wars all over the planet. Yes, that is, indeed, a very painful realization: the American Dream is just that – a dream.’

    What worries ‘the powers that be’ is that a large portion of the populace of western nations will eventually become aware of the extent they have been lied to.

    Even if the 9/11 truth movement continues to be stymied, the collapse of the environment which is underway will make it abundantly clear that all governments continually lie.

    • Brilliant Afewknowthetruth. This topic never fails to have us dismissed as ‘conspiracy Nutters”.
      If only people would take the time to look into 9/11 and see how/why the official story is a load of bollocks, they would suddenly find all the bits of the jigsaw of post 9/11 life fit together and what an incredibly corrupt Deep State runs the USA (and the rest of us).

    • Afewknowthetruth;

      Your post is briliant and your link is interesting.
      The article contained excellent. The site deserves more scrutiny. Thanks.

      We have just been reading/talking about ‘Deep State’ behind all our Gvt’s.
      Webster Tarptey’s description is Rouge Network or Invisible Government.

      Many would have missed the major expose’ contained here as it was three days
      late. Comment in reply to Martyn and Frank near top. Another at bottom.
      https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2016/09/11/15-year-after-9-11-so-when-are-we-invading-saudi-arabia/
      Make sure you read the must read.

      “Suppressed But Crucial 9/11 Evidence: “Angel Is Next,” The Invisible Government’s Ultimatum to Bush to Launch the War of Civilizations”
      This is the direct communique threatening Bush,
      Go in about 19-20mins.
      http://tarpley.net/2011/09/08/suppressed-but-crucial-911-evidence/

      Compartmentilization is the key.
      Continual drills until one of them goes ‘Live’

      Same as 7/7 in Uk. The “Patsies” made a run for it and got caught at the wharf.

      Cheers.

    • “SAMPLE POPULATION:
      Eligible New Zealand voters who live in New Zealand households that have a landline telephone.”

      Well that excludes the young and the poor immediately as they don’t use landlines.

  5. Thanks, Martyn, once again… yes everyone seems to be gearing up for an (early?) election… and before the ‘speed wobbles’ which are becoming apparent get any worse… My own nightmare (which I’ve noted before) is that the Gnats will throw a ‘cannabis referendum’ into the mix.. to confuse and distract the disaffected among the non-voting….. a Trojan horse, if you will.

  6. The NZ Labour Party needs a Jeremy Corbyn – someone who reminds voters what a Labour Party actually stands for.

  7. The 2017 election won’t be hard at all because Labour has already lost.

    > Little is the least popular of any of their recent leaders

    > Labour has no funds to fight the election

    > They seem unable of assembling sound policy initiatives

    > They have no fresh candidates

    > They have a shrinking membership base

    > Their association with the Greens puts sane voters off

    > Undue influence by the unions drives the non-union majority away

    Unless something drastic happens between now then then, it will be a cakewalk for National and the official opposition may even become NZF.

    • Andrew the sane public already see through Mr Key. They see he is supporting his rich wealthy mates. It’s early days labours support will grow if they attract those non voters from 2014 and the way things are going they will be a shoe in in achieving this.
      Anyway very few parties have won four terms on the trot. S tatistics are working against you Andrew…

      • Jono, you believe that regardless of the opinion polls? 😉

        I’m not a National Party member and may not even vote for them in the next election but National is not what I’m talking about.

        I’m talking about the demise of the Labour Party

    • Here’s one you may have missed Andrew.

      Louise Upston is the minister for women. So should she be shot for her complete lack of support for the women at the center of the Chiefs scandal, or are you going to continue to support Key, when he states that Upston doesn’t need to comment on all women’s affairs, whilst protecting rugby. Regardless of your opinion of the left, at least their not morally bankrupt.

      Maybe National have undue influence by the record number of migrants and the foreign investors membership base. Or maybe it is the corrupt foreign money that is invested directly into the National party.

        • Yes they did Andrea and well done to them but if Upston doesn’t make comment, then surely she must be embarrassed to take home a salary.

    • You shouldn’t spend so much time in the fiction section of the library Andrew. You start to believe your own fantasies.

    • Andrew – do you believe this effusion of yours? Or are you simply copying the mindless drivel of the past?

      Please skip past the reds under the beds and the dancing Cossacks.
      And the bit about being for ‘aspirational New Zealanders’. Too many of us are nearing our last gasps as it is.

      However, I do agree with your last sentence. Unfortunately, the comfy ones in the PLP are extremely hard of hearing and lack Pooh Bear’s humility – despite being bears of very little brain.

    • Just because someone thinks the same as you, doesn’t make them sane, nor another insane because they think differently. The only thing anyone can garner with any certainty when you say that is, that you’re an elitist snob who thinks they’re better than others.

  8. It’s generally considered that the PM is the National Government and without him they would be nothing. Certainly nobody in their cabinet right now is going to win them the vote, being useless tossers. There is also a huge faction of citizens who do not like the PM or what he stands for – the flag poll showed that with a very clear vote for keeping the national flag. Northland was lost to National because they were and still are ignoring the provinces.

    I don’t know how these polls are decided but it doesn’t show in what I hear on the streets in conversation – Andrew Little said the same on TV today. To me its just propaganda and spin, to me personally I think our biggest struggle will be to make sure the election is not rigged in some way. It would not surprise me with the corruption and bribery that goes on within the government.

    We make the headlines in the UK papers and on the US TV screens about the state of the country – something is not right in these polls, we are not a stupid people and those that are hurting need to be found and taken to the PO to get registered if they are not already on the electoral roll.

    Finally when trolls are out in real force as they are on the Standard and this Daily Blog today I just think we should starve them of oxygen – just ignore them and not reply to their crap behaviour, it is no fun if you are not biting with replying to them. Hopefully eventually they will give up and leave us in peace.

  9. Does anyone know what Whale Oil Cameron Slater and his new partner, Regan Cunliffe, are doing with their new venture “Freed Media Group” yet?
    I expect it’s already deep into dirty politics.

  10. In the words of Katie Bradford “No matter what we say or do the polls won’t change”
    It seems most Kiwis are happy with the current government.
    GDP figures later this week will show around 3.6% growth. That will translate to a bigger surplus for the next budget. And in election year there will be room to move on the issues that concern the voters.
    You have to admit that this government is masterful at politics,whether you like them or not.
    Jeff just wait for the explosive book to hit the shelves next year. 2017 is gonna be a ripper!

    • Winston. Don’t ever write of Winston and New Zealand First

      National thought he was dead and buried until 2011. Then 100,000 including myself voted for N.Z.F.

      Now, whose party is it that has climbed to 11% in the polls?

      N.Z.F.

  11. It should not lead to panic, for sure, but something needs to be done rather soon, I think.

    Labour has been lingering between I would say 28 to 33 percent most the times over recent polls, and when Labour gained it was often where the Greens may have lost some support that moved to Labour, or New Zealand First did so.

    The concern to me is the overall support for the opposition parties combined, and it is not growing. The Labour Green MoU has not really lead to the gains some had hoped for, and of course, the combined Labour and Greens support is what really matters.

    Relying on New Zealand First to form an alternative government is too great a risk to take, so Labour and Greens need to get some traction, which can only happen if they get better organised and form a formidable attacking opposition.

    What I see though is more of the same as we have had for years, there are the odd stinging attacks when the opposition sees the government failing, and Labour and Greens did a reasonably good job re housing.

    But immigration is still a card not played well, as some fear being labeled “xenophobic” or racist.

    There is only limited political gain the opposition may gain from the economic policies it can offer, but I guess that this is where more work needs to be done. People are so conditioned now, that is the majority, they simply accept the neoliberal realities as they are, and many cannot even see an alternative that has “credit”.

    With the media only serving as an echo chamber for government feeding them press releases, and for the government departments releasing the usual statistics and bank economists their quarterly outlooks, we face a challenge that is just extremely hard to deal with. People do in their majority still rely on the MSM, even if they use social media, what is discussed in social media forums and networks is though mostly based on what the MSM feeds the people with.

    Labour and also the Greens could do well with better press work, with information releases, with policy presentation and releases, with a firm line to be taken on issues and topics.

    The softly, softly, please as many as you can approach, it does not work, as most see this as weakness. People are tired of beltway stuff and the same talk day in and out, they want something new and refreshing, and decisive, that convinces them, and shows leadership.

    While Labour continues to be so ambiguous or unclear about many topics, many see the party as neither here nor there, and offering little of substance.

    I wrote before, it is also not convincing when Labour and Green politicians turn up at Paul Henry’s breakfast show and allow him to ridicule them, or play his little games with them. I would tell the man in the face what a jerk he is, even if he may appear smart.

    Straight talking, firm and assertive words and actions do have appeal these days, just look at overseas now.

    To reach the “missing million”, sending out email with shallow info and appeals, and asking for donations all the time, that is totally insufficient. Networks need to be established, people need to be excited and committed, and signed up medium to longer term, as being part of a movement for a new nation to be built.

    I see none of this in the modern IT use and approach by Labour and Greens, it is too weak and unconvincing.

    And it is only a segment of the missing voters, who have not bothered to vote for so long, that will make the difference. What we have had since the mid 2000s is just more of the same, all competing for those committed, rather conservative minded “middle ground” voters with property or on the ladder to have their property to own, and with professional careers.

    That is where the Nats do well, but as long as Labour tries to win over blue hearted, perhaps blue green minded “neoliberals” and conservatives, Labour will simply be turned into Light Blue as a party.

    Venture out to the untested grounds, that is where the journey needs to go, to win over the ones who may be looking for a new political future and new ideas and aspiration.

    There is only barely a year left to get cracking.

  12. When the MSM does not report on the scandal that has surfaced re Parliamentary Services having checks on emails of MPs that stop “classified” documents to be sent, and maybe even more questionable activity happening, and when they do not report on Winston Peters being thrown out of Parliament, by a clearly biased Speaker, then we know, that any polls they present are simply based on opinions and preferences by a poorly informed and brainwashed public.

    A democracy only functions when INFORMED citizens have rights to vote and input into social and political affairs, when people are not being informed, we end up with ignorant people making decisions that are predictable, hence the outcomes of the last three elections.

    As I said before, we live in a virtual dictatorship, a highly sophisticated one, where manipulation is the rule, and informing people just does not happen to any significant level.

    When breakfast shows are headed by Paul Henry types and gigglers and jokers on TVNZ, then we have to worry about our democracy.

    Sadly most are kept busy, do not question and simply shrug their shoulders and uphold the status quo.

    The casualness that is so typical of many New Zealanders, by most considered a friendly, relaxed characteristic, that is the worst enemy we have now, as it hinders exposing and presenting the truth.

    When there are no fighters for democracy, democracy will be lost, becomes redundant and meaningless, look at the past 8 years, we can say we have seen it happen.

    George Orwell must have known that New Zealand would be the first place where his predictions will become true, while most would not even realise it.

  13. Some months back I had a conversation with Andrew Little on messenger. It was a good and respectful conversation. It gave me a little insight into his thinking.

    My view that I expressed to him was that in order for Labour to take on National they need to capture the imagination of the public.

    While I appreciate that the issues that Labour raise everyday are important to the supporters from the left, the issues are not going to take votes from the middle classes. On top of that Labour incessantly are negative. That is a turn off for voters.

    ANdrew Little has not made any inroad into the solid National support. For nearly a decade Nats have been entrenched on circa 50% support, while Labour has slipped from early to mid 30s to now locked in circa 25%.

    The country is not getting tired of John key and the fourth term is looking a highly likely possibility.

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