Hone Harawira’s Attempted Re-Entry: Is It Credible? And What Does It Mean For The Left In 2017

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harawira

Back when Winston was attempting to re-enter Parliament during the period running from 2009-2011, his anthem might very well have been drawn from the lines of LL Cool J – “Don’t call it a comeback … I been here for years!”

This is because Winston is, to be frank, a Parliamentary institution and almost as much an enduring part of our political landscape as MMP or squabbles over Treaty rights (both of which he thrives on).

Hone Harawira, however, is very much more ephemeral – and despite an impressive contribution to the previous Parliamentary term in the form of the Feed The Kids bill, is not nearly so integral to our nation’s politics.

Still, if he manages to march back to Parliament at the next Election, he will have accomplished a rare feat – joining Winston in that unique winner’s circle of hell of leading a party that’s been turfed out and then returned in triumph three years later.

Such a feat, while not without a singular precedent, would be extraordinary – particularly considering the decidedly uphill battle which Harawira will face against a rampant Kelvin Davis without the previous benefits of incumbency which he enjoyed last time. But if successful, MANA could very well hold the keys to reshaping our political future.

So the serious questions for the commentariat and uber-hacks among us (I’m too cynical to presume this is still ordinary water-cooler conversation in the average workplace well outside of an election year) are twofold:

First, *can* Harawira pull it off; and second … what are the likely effects going to be if he does, in fact, win Te Tai Tokerau once again.

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The answers – particularly to the second question – may be surprising.

As applies the former question, it is widely regarded that Harawira will not have an easy time winning back his old electorate. Even though there was a comparatively wafer-thin margin of 743 votes between Davis and Harawira last time around, there is no real reason to believe that this gap will have tightened in the intervening three years. Sure, Harawira no longer has the rather prominent German millstone-cum-albatross about his neck to act as a dissuader to potential voters. Winston won’t be able to attempt to influence people to strategically vote for Davis by crowing about “Mana-Deutschland” this time around.

But at the same time, Davis remains one of Labour’s most popular, prominent and well-regarded MPs. He’s landed key hits on the reviled Judith Collins in the embattled Corrections portfolio over this Parliamentary Term (for which he’s received much positive media coverage), is well regarded within his Electorate, and has even been tipped by some to be on-course as a future Leader of the Labour Party and potentially our first Maori Prime Minister.

It is also worth noting that Davis is a skilled campaigner, astutely aware of Harawira’s weaknesses and blindspots, who’s consistently increased his results against Harawira at each of the last three electoral contests in the seat. In the 2011 Te Tai Tokerau By-Election, it was 6065 to 4948 in Harawira’s favour (49%-40% – a 9% margin). In the 2011 General Election contest, 8121 to 6956, again in Harawira’s favour (43%-37% – a 6% margin). Most recently, in 2014, it was 9712 to 8969 in favour of Davis (44%-41% – a 3% margin). (And this despite a seeming nationwide swing against the Labour Party in general, marking Te Tai Tokerau as one of Labour’s few gains)

Phrased this way, the capture of Triple-T by Davis seems less like the immaculately miraculous result of a confederation of bad circumstances bedeviling Harawira in a single poor year … and much more like the gradual unfolding of ongoing hard work, energy and effort which, while not inevitable in its outcome, has of late given rise to an eventual flowering and fruiting.

In short, to this point Harawira has been almost standing still in electoral terms, while Davis has been running ever faster.

Now that the shoe is most decidedly ‘on the other foot’ as applies incumbency, it will be increasingly difficult for Harawira to make up the pace, while Davis will have an easier time continually advancing.

Is it an impossible dream, though? I wouldn’t necessarily say so. It is, however, a bit of a long shot. But in politics, one in a hundred outcomes appear to happen somewhere slightly greater than fifty percent of the time.

However, provided we’re talking vaguely unrealistic hypothetical scenarios … there’s also a rather slight chance that Annette Sykes takes Waiariki off Te Ururoa Flavell and secures MANA’s resurrection that way. The numbers don’t especially appear to support such a contention (Sykes trailed 355 votes behind Labour’s candidate there, and 4244 votes behind Flavell), but I’ve seen the claim made often enough that such a scenario is possible for it to be worth addressing here.

And now that we’ve got the slightly boring number-deluge out of the way … let’s get on to the fun stuff:

Prognostications and Fantasy Coalition Football.

The impacts of a prospective MANA re-entry into Parliament can be handily divided into two groups. First, how it will change the makeup of Parliament – and second, whether this makes it easier for one ‘side’ or the other to form a Government.

The answer for the former is that while on the face of it taking a seat from Labour might not affect the overall Left-Right balance in Parliament (and therefore be somewhat pointless for people seeking to change the government), it’s yet to be seen how such an alteration would affect the balance of proportionalities which determine List Seat allocation. MANA might conceivably wind up reducing the number of National List MPs by anywhere from zero to one dependent upon how things go for the other parties.

But, more interestingly, MANA might wind up altering the balance of power further by bringing along their very own List MP, Maori Party style. This is because at the last Election, MANA (admittedly in confederation with The Internet Party) wound up scoring a relatively impressive 1.4% of the vote. Now it’s possible that the 0.3% of the vote they gained over their 2011 result might very well fade back into the more radically left portions of Labour, The Greens and New Zealand First – thus eliminating MANA’s shot at a List MP. But then again, with a strong Party Vote message in a number of electorates, and enough compelling evidence that they’re ready to be a strident voice in Opposition or ardent left wing ‘Voice of [a certain rather small but pert portion of] The People” … it’s certainly not entirely inconceivable that they hold a decent proportion of this vote and thus net themselves a Caucus slightly larger than the carrying capacity of the average phone booth.

Now where it starts to get messy is when it comes to Government Formation.

To coagulate a non-National Government, the Vaguely Left need to somehow cobble together a bare majority of MPs prepared to support a Labour-led Government on Confidence & Supply.

At the moment, a Labour-Greens-NZ First accommodation would be just about on the cusp of victory. Presuming, of course, that Winston doesn’t decide to withhold his support.

A MANA victory in Te Tai Tokerau considerably complicates things. Apart from reducing Labour’s stock of electorate seats by one, it’s also possible that the ‘displacement’ of one fewer list seat which would result from MANA’s entry into Parliament could reduce the Labour/Greens/NZF muster even further itself.

Some might say that this is not necessarily a problem, as it would therefore simply require four parties rather than three to hammer out a deal in the best interests of the country in order to constitute an alternative government.

Except given Winston is already making irascible noises about refusing to tete-a-te with “separatists” when it comes to “racial politics” … and MANA’s fairly overt status in the eyes of many as a Maori Nationalist movement … it’s not hard to see how this might potentially form a problem rather than a government for the Left come 2017.

As pointed out by an astute colleague, one way around this potential nightmare scenario is if a post-electoral accommodation is reached wherein each of MANA and The Maori Party agree to *abstain* on Confidence & Supply for a Labour/Greens/NZF Government in exchange for concessions. This is exactly how Labour managed to maintain a hold on power in 2005 (thanks to The Greens biting the bullet and demonstrating principles bigger than egos); and would allow certain individuals to successfully claim they were not, in fact, in government with “separatists”, while still effectively being supported into government by them.

But this is nevertheless a somewhat fraught potential arrangement, and would have a number of obvious potential problems in application. What sorts of policy concessions would be necessary to lure the MANA and/or Maori Parties to effectively deliberately lock themselves out of Government … which would simultaneously be amenable enough to Winston for him to actually consider implementing. Certainly, demands from NZ First for something like Whanau Ora to be given the chop would cause an irrevocable sticking point with at least one of these potential not-support parties.

All things considered, it’s a bit of a headache all around.

Now, I wouldn’t go so far as another of my more learned and esteemed associates as to claim that “a vote for Hone is a vote for National”, because we don’t yet know if that will be true. And in any case, I generally quite like the idea of people voting for parties they genuinely believe in rather than holding their nose and doing skulldugerous electoral calculations in the booth (unless you’re in Epsom – in which case you must ALWAYS vote Paul Goldsmith! … or if you’re one of the somewhere in the region of 33% of NZ First voters who are strategic Labourites. You guys keep doing what you’re doing as well, please!).

But it does seem fairly inarguable that the prospects (however realistic or otherwise) of MANA re-entering Parliament at the next Election raise more questions than answers when it comes to articulating the successful future of progressive governance come 2017.

Not least of which is whether Hone can actually pull off a comeback in the first place.

And what role, if any, he might play in, around, or in support of Government at that time.

[Thanks to Shannon & Alex for the erudite observations]

18 COMMENTS

  1. Why don’t you come out and tell the truth…Winston Peters is a racist bigot and opportunistic ex-Nat…unlike Peter Dunne who is so obviously a leech that attaches itself to whomever will pay him the most…or David Seymour a ultra right wing supporter of the Nats, being paid by the Nats to spend time in Parliament as the ultimate idiot toy boy. Winston continues his egotistical play acting as a dictator of a party called NZ First…it took him ten plus years to allow a deputy leader to be named. Why would anyone trust Winston…To me Winston is a NZ version of Donald Trump without the billions… all mouth and no money…give me the honesty of Hone rather than the duplicity Winston any day.

  2. “It is also worth noting that Davis is a skilled campaigner, astutely aware of Harawira’s weaknesses and blindspots, who’s consistently increased his results against Harawira at each of the last three electoral contests in the seat. In the 2011 Te Tai Tokerau By-Election, it was 6065 to 4948 in Harawira’s favour (49%-40% – a 9% margin). In the 2011 General Election contest, 8121 to 6956, again in Harawira’s favour (43%-37% – a 6% margin). Most recently, in 2014, it was 9712 to 8969 in favour of Davis (44%-41% – a 3% margin). (And this despite a seeming nationwide swing against the Labour Party in general, marking Te Tai Tokerau as one of Labour’s few gains)”

    You need to provide context to these elections:
    The 2011 by-election cannot be compared to the 2011 general election
    The general election will always favour the major party. They have more nationwide coverage and their leader is all over the news for months. Suggesting they’re comparable is misleading.
    In 2014 Davis won with the help of National, NZ First, the Maori Party and Labour voters. Hone increased his vote count from 2011-14 but the mega coalition + mediaworks + Simon Lusk beat him.
    Your point about the “nationwide swing against the Labour Party in general” is also a strange comparison. Labour did very well across the Maori seats in 2014. Te Tai Tokerau was not the anomaly you’ve tried to paint it as. If you want to compare TTT with other electorates, then you should compare it with the other Maori electorates.

    “Now that the shoe is most decidedly ‘on the other foot’ as applies incumbency, it will be increasingly difficult for Harawira to make up the pace, while Davis will have an easier time continually advancing.”

    Perhaps, yes. But this election Davis has nothing to bash Hone with and Davis cannot rely on right wing supporters giving him their vote. Davis will try to link Hone to KDC again – Davis will talk more about 2014 on the campaign trail, than he will about TTT’s future. Can Davis beat Hone without having Sean Plunket and Paddy Gower demolish his opponent 5 days a week?
    We’ll see if TTT is as anti-Hone and Mana as the media have made out.

    “Now, I wouldn’t go so far as another of my more learned and esteemed associates as to claim that “a vote for Hone is a vote for National”, because we don’t yet know if that will be true.”

    Lol. I literally laughed out loud.
    Who said such a thing? I seriously doubt that whoever said this is either learned or esteemed. Can you give us a link or a name – even what their logic is behind this claim? Or have you just floated this out onto TDB in the hope that it’ll get some traction?
    You need to justify this statement. I’m trying hard to see how, but I can’t come up with anything.
    Ask Hone if he can rule out going into coalition with John Key. Then ask Winston Peters if can rule out going into coalition with John Key.
    Saying ‘a vote for Hone is a vote for National’ is far fetched, and when it’s come from someone inside NZ First, then it’s quite laughable

  3. Mana would be better directed to cut a deal and get Sykes to oust Flavell in that electorate. She did well there.

  4. to author:..

    i feel you are incorrect in most of yr analysis..both retrospective..(as fatty has covered..)

    ..and i am gonna do an open-letter to hone harawira tomorrow detailing the way he can both win the seat..and bring in more mana list mp’s..

    ..but here is a snippet for you..

    ..i don’t think the usual farage-channelling bullshit from peters will work this time..

    ..but more important..his traditional will he?/won’t he? dance of the seven veils around post-election deals also will not work on those swinging labour voters you so cherish/shout out to/who help prop up nz first.

    the urge to remove these bastards will guarantee that will only hurt peters..

    ..more tomorrow..

  5. I trust Hone Harawira. With him, you know what you get.

    I do NOT trust Winston Peters. With him, it’ll be a surprise. And not a pleasant one for the Left, I fear

  6. Hone follows the same pattern as Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton in the USA.

    He is a race-baiter who makes a living off an imaginary racial divide.

    He is fuelled by the ‘grievance industry’ which holds Maori down rather than enabling them to uplift themselves.

    • ok..andrew…so there is no economic/health etc etc ‘racial-divide’ in nz..?

      ..so ya say..

      ..where do you live..?..are you tucked into a white/wasp-ghetto..?

      ..where you just never see it..?..just glimpses on the way to the airport.?

      ..and..browns bay..?..perchance..?

      ..and/but it is the ‘grievance-industry’ that is the cause of this ‘keeping maori down’/racial divide you say doesn’t exist..?

      (give this man a special groin-stretcher/incoherence-award..!..he has more than earned it with that howler..)

      • Phillip:

        Maori get the same educational opportunities as the rest of us. The same health care and the same welfare rules. In fact they get preferential treatment in some of these.

        So what’s holding Maori down?

        The answer is simple: Maori are holding Maori down.

        There is no sinister plot to hold them back, in fact the overwhelming majority in NZ wish them well and cheer loudly when we see a success story. John Key isn’t bashing their babies, feeding them drugs, encouraging them to commit crime and preventing them getting educated.

        Maori aren’t unique in this. Go to the USA and you’ll see the same cycle of failure for the same reasons amongst African Americans. Go the UK and you’ll see the same thing among some whites. So it’s not a race thing.

        Social failure is an intractable problem. People make bad decisions and this impacts on their children who in turn make the same bad decisions and so the cycle continues. When a whole community is operating in this same mode, there is no external reference for what constitutes good decision making. Young people tend to copy their peer group.

        Let me know when you have a practical solution: The problem is an old as mankind.

        If Hone wants to help his people he needs to quit the blame game and instead support them in making good decisions that will produce the next generation of educated, well adjusted and healthy Maori kids.

        • Actually the crown signed a treaty that affords Maori certain rights that the crown breaches constantly.

          You need to do your research properly.

        • “Maori aren’t unique in this. Go to the USA and you’ll see the same cycle of failure for the same reasons amongst African Americans. Go the UK and you’ll see the same thing among some whites. So it’s not a race thing.”

          You say it’s the same thing for whites in the UK, but it’s not. That’s a lie. Where could you get such an absurd idea from? Just a basic google search proved you wrong. It took two minutes.

          Do you honestly believe what you post, or do you make up racist lies?

          In the UK, here are the rates of living in low-income households, by ethnicity:

          20% for White people.
          30% for Indians and Black Caribbeans.
          50% for Black Africans.
          60% for Pakistanis.
          70% for Bangladeshis.

          http://www.poverty.org.uk/06/index.shtml#g2

          • Fatty: You missed my point, possibly deliberately.

            The fact that, say, Bangladeshis live in low income households doesn’t change the fact that there are significant numbers of white trash over there. Take a look around Manchester or Liverpool sometime. Like I said, it’s not a race thing, it’s an attitude thing.

            Although your numbers hide it, if you visit the UK you’ll see how well the established Hindu Indians have done within two generations of their arrival. Many have become an upper middle class elite. A large proportion of their children now go to private schools and their fathers are educated professionals. It just shows how a poor immigrant group can advance in a relatively short time, given the right attitude.

            And that’s the key: the right attitude.

            • “The fact that, say, Bangladeshis live in low income households doesn’t change the fact that there are significant numbers of white trash over there.”

              Well, no shit Sherlock. Thanks for the wonderful insight again. And in NZ there are poor Pakeha, and in the USA there are poor whites. But the fact remains, race does play a part and there are major differences between racial groups.

              “Although your numbers hide it, if you visit the UK you’ll see how well the established Hindu Indians have done within two generations of their arrival”

              If I visit? I lived just outside of Leeds a few years ago, close to Bradford. I’ve seen the reality, but here’s the thing – seeing something means jack-shit. It leads to half-baked theories (yours, for example).
              I’ll use stats, research and look for overall patterns. You’ve made you assessment based on the handful of people you’ve met in the UK, or your time there, or what your ethnocentric eyes could see, but that’s why your theories are so wrong.

              “Although your numbers hide it”

              Lol. That comment says everything about your crack-head posts on here.
              ‘Although evidence says otherwise…’
              ‘Although facts disprove this…’
              ‘Although data proves this a lie…’

              You’re always good for a laugh Andrew.

        • @ andrew..

          so there is educational-equality between decile one and decile ten schools ..eh..?..and that’s without even going near the private schools..?

          to claim that is just silly..eh..?

          ..and the health stats for maori/pi also show equality in access to treatment and equal outcomes..eh..?

          ..to claim that is just silly..eh..?

          ..and you claim ‘maori are holding maori down’..care to expand on that somewhat sweeping-statement..?

          who/how/why..?..

          ..much of the rest of what you say is racist – and so gets the silence it deserves..

          ..but there is one thing you said i agree with – where you say ‘it isn’t a race thing’..

          ..newsflash..!..poverty does not see skin-colour..

          ..and the neoliberal-ideology driven poverty created by both labour and the tories..has just impacted on proportionally more maori and pacific islanders..

          ..but those you denigrate as ‘white trash’ are also suffering the same as the many maori and pacific island families struggling with this govt-induced poverty..

          ..and i guess yr righwing belief system means you are pretty ‘relaxed’ about these ‘maori held down by maori’ families children sleeping in cars/garages/boarding houses/shacks..eh..?..

          ..and excuse my judgmental-tone here..eh..?..but i do find your lack of caring to be kinda vile..eh.?..and much more a reflection on you than anything else..

          ..and you ask me for a practical solution to this unsightly-blight of endemic poverty – in this rich country f.f.s!..

          i have that for you – it has two arms – a living-wage (not a minimum-wage) and the simplest solution to poverty for the rest is a universal basic income..heard of that..?

          ..it’s very similar to what those 65 and over now receive..

          ..a guaranteed living-income – and any extra earnings are taxed..

          ..in one fell swoop that would do away with much of what ails us…

          ..all caused by that ‘problem as old as mankind’…poverty..

          ..(and ‘who would pay for it?’ i hear you ask/scream..well hunting down that $1-3billion tax that is dodged by corporates/the rich (some of whom you probably know) would go some way to answering that question..eh.?

          ..and if ‘hone wants to help his people’ he has to do the deal it looks like he is doing with the maori party – to work together to create a strong/effective political-voice for maori..

          ..hope all that helps..

  7. If Hone campaigns in 2017 as well as he did in 2014 then good luck to him. Although he got double-teamed in his electorate I was impressed with his calm and reasoned debating and campaigning and he spoke a lot of good sense.

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