Latest Internal Polling – National in trouble

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The impact of the Memorandum of Understanding has triggered something deep in the electorate if the latest internal polling is anything to go by.

Obliging the mainstream media to change the way they report politics from a first by the post perspective to an MMP one changes the way voters see the Opposition.

That change seems to be happening at an alarming pace. The sudden attention by the media of Government Departments failing those they are supposed to care for and the naked self interest in growing the property bubble are now obvious to everyone not benefiting from them that it’s galvanised a resistance.

The latest internal polling has National free falling to 44%, Labour at 31% and Greens at 12%.

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That means the Labour-Green bloc is at 43% and National is on 44% – that’s a mere 1 percent lead and the speed of the turn around suggests something has snapped in terms of voter apathy.

If these internals are repeated in the next wave of  Polls, the sense of momentum will step up.

Poor David Farrar will be working triple time trying to help calm the nervous National Party.

16 COMMENTS

  1. About time the tide changed people need to wake up to this government who are governing for the rich only

  2. I am worried about the elections being rigged now. I wouldn’t be surprised if the last one was. How do we count the votes in this country?

    • Gladyd DaD,

      We have been requesting all these detail’s under Official Information Act at our “Electoral Commission” for the last two months to send us the exact details of how safe and secure our voting system actually is!!!!

      Apparently overseas now they are switching to using VVPAT system where our voting papers are scanned and a copy is placed in a register so at any time you can request a viewing of your actual paper vote and who you were recorded us voting for

      This system ensures you as the voter a security that no one can tamper with your voting paper to rig the election.

      Look up Voter VVPAT (Verification Paper Audit trail) it is the best way to secure your safe election system, but in 1993 under the previous National Government outlawed any other voting and we only have what Electoral Commission call “Secret Voting” where no one can check if your voting paper was changed at any time of a Election.

      So the system is open now to being rigged, and to change the process we need to get the opposition Parties to place a change of the legislation in Court due to the current system being insecure.

      If you need more details we will give you them when you ask for some.

      Meantime look at this site for a safe VVPAT system now hailed as the state of the art voting system.

      http://www.verifiedvotingfoundation.org/projects/electronic-voting-resolution/

      Its about our Electoral Commission security flaw we seem to now have, and the way they have left our voting system wide open to being manipulated here, with security flaws for our 2017 Elections here to be set up to become again rigged!!!!

      I just posted this on Facebook but I CHOOSE ALSO into posting this up here also, as it affects our next years’ election?

      The following is about our problems with our Election System now which are subject to manipulation as the budget was?

      So will the crooked Government do this to us also during the 2017 election?

      The only way to prevent this fraud election rigging again is have Opposition MP’s request the legislative changes be made under law to force the Electoral Commissioner to include the following safe Voter verification Paper Audit Trail (VVPAT) to be given to all voters who cast their ballot papers, so they can audit their own paper ballot later to check to see if the paper was not altered, and that all VVPAT papers be counted for accuracy before the final vote is accepted as the final election result, and this be made mandatory as overseas experts below recommend here.

      question.

      Does any one know how safe our NZ Election voting system is from being manipulated or rigged?

      Does anyone have any personal experience of a new “failsafe” system now being used in USA/Canada? called (VVPAT) or Voter Verification Paper Audit Trail, that gives you the voter the opportunity to at anytime recheck to see if your ballot was “interpreted” correctly within the Election system, and is now supported and used to make voting secure from vote rigging in other countries .

      http://www.verifiedvotingfoundation.org/projects/electronic-voting-resolution/

      Quote “Election integrity cannot be assured without openness and transparency. But an election without voter-verifiable ballots cannot be open and transparent: The voter cannot know that the vote eventually reported is the same as the vote cast, nor can candidates or others gain confidence in the accuracy of the election by observing the voting and vote counting processes.” Unquote.

      http://www.notablesoftware.com/Press/electronic_voting_in_brasil.htm

      http://www.notablesoftware.com/evote.html

      So far in our enquiries with the NZ Election Commission they inform us that in NZ under current law we only have “Secret ballot voting”

      And in this “BLIND SYSTEM” paper problems here are found as Election Commission also admit NOBODY INCUDING THE VOTER NOR THE ELECTORAL COMMISSION WOULD BE ABLE TO VERIFY IF THE BALLOTS HAD NOT BEEN ALTERED!!!!

      SO IF ANY GROUP – HAS BEEN SENT DELIBERATELY TO SELECTIVELY ALTER A NUMBER OF BALLOT PAPERS IN EVERY BOTH THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY-NO ONE WILL EVER KNOW – because neither the voter or the electoral Commission can audit and verify whether any voting paper has been altered during an election in NZ?

      So if the voter can be given their right to verify if their preferred vote was correctly used this gives some extra security against rigging elections, and the new safe (VVPAT) system we would have a safe system but it is not allowed here in NZ!

      Electoral Commission state it would need a “legislative” change of law to permit safe VVPAT security that Canada now uses.

      Strangely the Electoral Commission interestingly order a change of legislation rather quickly we assume during the flag referendum circus so why not for our safety of our elections folks?

      Any comments are welcomed.

      • Cleangreen: So you want a semi-private ballot where the voter can check that their vote has been tallied correctly?

        The issue with this is that it may potentially allow vote-selling or voter intimidation. Any system in which you can conclusively verify how you voted has the potential that someone else can also verify that, and thus is able to retaliate if you didn’t vote the way they wanted, or pay you if you did.

        There is a system that allows partial verification of your vote, but it’s a bit more complicated. (So if we applied this system to the party vote, and someone was pressuring you to vote National, you would get three party votes, and you could have one read National, one read Not National, and one for whichever party you actually wanted to vote for. You can choose one to act as your verification- so you could happily have the National paper posted publicly, and if that changed you would be able to determine that someone was tampering with votes, while still being safe from voter intimidation, as they can’t confirm you didn’t cancel out the vote for some other party)

        There are legitimate reasons to want a secret ballot, the question of course is whether those reasons outweigh the benefits of verifying your vote. I’d want to see any verification system tested in local elections first before we even talk about it for national-level elections.

    • Gadly:
      “How do we count the votes in this country?”

      Good question, it’s a much less robust process than a lot of people would like to think. We covered a few reasons why in a recent discussion about online voting on the OpenChat list:
      http://groups.nzoss.org.nz/groups/openchat/messages/topic/3YZSWoVYS19PUHxyJ6XnkH/

      If nothing else, scroll down to the post on April 29 (11:15am), where I quote the disturbing story my partner told me of her time as an election worker in 2008.

  3. Steady as she goes, Capt’n…

    Just let National have enough rope to keelhaul herself.

    And the MOU block to focus on the basics , health , education , welfare and wages…

    The housing crisis , TTPA /USA warships , – and damn near every other nAtional party scandal and fiasco will see put to them by their own volition. They really are now their own worst enemy’s. Let them scuttle their own ship.

    And each and every one of those fiascoes gives the MOU ammunition to not only broadside nAtional , – but develop policy’s that will have popular appeal.

    The question now is it NZ First and the Maori party or just 1 of those or is it the one with the other giving confidence and supply?

    Interesting times ahead on the good ship Aotearoa.

  4. Reckon this should be the anthem song for Labour / Greens MOU.

    Song by Lindisfarne 1972.

    And every other family and child who’s been either directly or indirectly negatively affected by this disgusting , anti democratic and immoral govt.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLE3ohwmGco

    And just in case you cant hear some of the lyrics , here they are :

    Bring down the government, bring it to its heel
    sure it a hoot when they prosecute you for doing what you feel.
    Bring down the government, bring it to its knees,
    if you want your rights you’re gonna have to fight,
    so bring down the government please.

    Bring down the government, bring it down for fun
    God only knows they’ve had their time, it’s about time it was done.
    So bring down the government, get them on the run,
    we’ll bake their heads to ginger bread,
    and eat them one by one.

    Bring down the government, do it now for love,
    do it for your mother and sister too and do for God above.
    So roll on my brothers we can find out how,
    to walk hand in hand to the promised land,
    if we bring down the government now.
    Bring down the government now
    Bring down the government now
    Bring down the government now

  5. It’s time for both the opposition parties, their supporters, and the rest of us who oppose this National government to take a deep breath, and prepare ourselves. The mass media will desperately try to run this election as another dog and pony show, sensationalizing, personalizing, and doing everything they can to present all politicians as venal, self-serving, sociopaths, that the population would be best to ignore. As the Sanders campaign has pointed out on a number of occasions, this is how decent people are turned off following politics, and the most anti-democratic forces win power. For pro-democratic forces to redistribute power, we must discipline ourselves to stay out of the mudwrestling pit, and discuss nothing but problems and solutions for the next year (publicly that is, we can say whatever we want in private, if such a thing still exists 😉

  6. Wasn’t the polling horrifically incorrect last election. This is great news if true but don’t want to get my hopes up

  7. The people’s flag is red and green,
    Heralds living wage and rivers clean,
    To corporate bullies we will not be sold,
    Rabid right is looking mean and cold,
    Divisive ways have got to go,
    Collaboration is the way to grow
    Though fat-cats flinch and cynics sneer,
    The red-green flag’ll fly high here.

Comments are closed.