Hillary Clinton’s backers keep announcing that she has the Democratic presidential nomination in the bag. But Bernie Sanders keeps shrinking her lead.
Sanders has won seven of the last eight Democrat primaries, all with significantly bigger percentages than the polls and pundits predicted: Democrats Abroad (69%), Idaho (78%), Utah (79%), Alaska (82%), Hawaii (70%), Washington (73%) and (now) Wisconsin (57%).
There are 1977 pledged delegates still in play at coming primaries, and at present Sanders is 249 delegates behind in the pledged delegates count (1027 to 1279). This means that he has to win an average of five delegates to Clinton’s four in the remaining contests. It might sound a hard ask until you realise Bernie has gotten almost double Clinton in the last eight contests: 236 delegates to Clinton’s 126. [This total includes Arizona, which Clinton won by 42 delegates to 33.]
Some of the coming primaries might not be so good for Sanders because of demographic factors (while improving his vote among Black people he is still doing worse than Clinton), or because of the nature of the primaries (some are “closed” to voters registered as independents, who tend to favour Sanders).
New York is the next big challenge, with Sanders behind in the opinion polls by 11% or 16%, depending on which poll aggregator you read. But Sanders’ result on election day is commonly way better than the opinion polls have indicated, thanks to effective campaigning with a message that resonates. In Wisconsin the polls had Sanders winning by less than 3%: he won by 13% yesterday.
There was an upbeat mood at Bernie’s rally in Wyoming yesterday, with huge cheers when he announced the victory in Wisconsin. He talked about the campaign’s “momentum” and how it was drawing in new people, particularly young people.
One of Sander’s campaign themes – making the super-rich pay their fair share of tax – got a big boost when the Panama papers revealed how the 1% escaped tax by channeling their assets through foreign trusts to tax havens.
It’s difficult to predict the precise outcome of the Democrat presidential nomination race. But whatever happens Bernie has built around him a mass movement of people challenging the plutocrats who run the country. That is the prime reason why Hillary Clinton and her rich backers want him to drop out of the race now.
Every one of those idiotic ‘predictions’ I read never factors in the margin that Sanders has won by compared to what was polled. Surely this should change the prediction, or at least the margin of error.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/05/bernie-sanders-isnt-catching-hillary-clinton-because-math/
Why do people call maths math these days? It’s short for mathematics, not mathematic.
But that out of the way, I think the Brainwashington Post article ignores the other factor, which is that as Bernie closes the gap and continues to exceed expectations, his campaign gets a better argument that superdelegates from states where he won are denying the will of their party and their people by pledging for Shillary.
Here’s me thinking it was just chicken bone reading
Like those fortune tellers that only tell there paying customers what they want to here
Americans call it math. We still call it maths.
And yet. America is a republic that still uses the imperial system.
which the standard for is based off the metric standard
There’s only one poll I’m interested in. It’s how many U.S army brats supports Sanders, currently polling above 55%.
No one ever succeeded in revolution with out military backing
Yes that’s a shame, he’s too mil. Maybe if he routs the Dems he’ll leave the path open for someone like Stein to emerge? Stranger things have happened.
Sanders has all his ducks lined up. He’s done every thing possible to win.
He’s got good hustle. It’s like Obama Vs Hillary all over again.
I dunno… I feel a change with Sanders like I never felt with Obama [‘vote for change’ slogan notwithstanding]. Of course, he’ll be hobbled at every turn, but he ticks more of the boxes than O ever did.
Sanders is special in a sense that he is a politician and was just old enough to have experienced the Great Depression and WW2. So he knows what fascism is and what we had to do to beat that.
In many ways Sanders is continuing the work of Martin Luther Kings work of social justice. Sanders was an orginser of Kings secound attempt at a million man march on Washington for economic equality. The secound march was one month in the planing when King got shot.
When I watch old footage of King there is similarities there with Sanders messaging.
Sam: “Sanders is special in a sense that he is a politician and was just old enough to have experienced the Great Depression and WW2.”
He was born in 1941, so no, he isn’t old enough to have that sort of experience. He was born after the Depression and would have been not quite 4 when the War ended.
Nevertheless, his life experience, plus his socialism, and the fact that he’s not owned by big business in the way that Billary Clinton is, gives him considerable impetus.
The mainstream media have been reporting on him in just the way the UK media reported on Jeremy Corbyn. Many people here, I’ve found, don’t understand the level of support he has garnered, precisely because the msm don’t report it.
Very good point, one I hadn’t considered.
Trying not to sound like a broken record – Bernie would be a great president but the US govt. is now mostly dominated and controlled by the very globalist elite corporate crims that will do whatever it takes to keep their puppet pres. in office. The Clintons and the Bush families are connected to the war mongering ; military spending; war profiteering and fear producing and they will get in the very person who will serve their greedy international corporate needs. — ” Keep the fear and profits flowing and growing.”
We are – on to – these scum bags and they are scared now as they are being exposed – thank you Snowden etc. , Wikileaks and the Panama papers and all the brave whistle blowers worldwide etc.
People are waking up to the reality of all these secret games and greedy manipulations.
We have had enough, we have had a guts full. The people are waking up and uniting and they, in their unity, will not be defeated.
If you take the time to read the newly released book ” Jeb Bush and the Criminal Bush Family ” — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=giZFeY1kN3M – it clearly exposes the Clintons and Bushs and how and why they and their ilk want to dominate and remain in power in the U.S. until — ” we the people ” stand up and speak out and take back our countries.
The elections are quite often rigged by corporate lobbyists and bought politicians etc. for corporate gain and greed and this is confirmed. Voters in the US are duped; kept in the dark and given lies and more mind controlled ( Fox News like ) media hype B.S.
QUESTION ALL AUTHORITY ! !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0e4Ii_qyNng
http://www.rense.com/general59/WIN.HTM
If Sanders becomes President, he will be the Marcus Aurelius of the American Empire
I had to Google Marcus Aurelius… *shame*
Is Sanders a clever, sub,sub,sub plot to maintain the dreaded status quo? He’s still alive so I could be forgiven for thinking so.
Bernie Sanders is a Jewish gentleman and as we all know, Jewish people stick together like shit to a blanket. Or am I wrong? I ask, am I wrong? Who’s wrong? Is it me ? Is it me who’s wrong, I ask? Who’s going to answer? Who?
I know I sound hateful and anti semitic. Well, tough. Get over it. I’m sorry, but my bullshit radar’s going off like a small town fire siren.
It might all be just be a diversion before the main event:
http://www.stage2omega.com/the-new-us-republic-via-a-global-currency-reset/?utm_source=Stage2Omega+Daily+Digest+Newsletter&utm_campaign=529ad05eaf-Stage2Omega_Nightly_Digest_Newsletter1_11_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65449d26fb-529ad05eaf-219621113
I like the oldness and honesty of this man, as a watch him I feel secure not like when I watch Hillary as a domineering fascist.
If he wins New York Solidly he’ll go all the way anything less than a tie it will almost impossible. Seizing New York with cause the Clinton campaign to collapse. I feel like supporters are walking away from her could be the reason Nevada got flipped.
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