2015 – Ongoing jobless tally

By
Frank Macskasy
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12
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Unemployment logo

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Continued from: 2014 – Ongoing jobless tally

So by the numbers, for this year;

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Events

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January

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

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Statistics

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unemployment quarter ending September 2015 - new zealand

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Source

*NB: actual rate for Dec 2014/Jan 2015 Quarter should be 5.7%, not 5.8% as depicted in above column. See Stats NZ data here.
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June 2015 quarter – Employment & Unemployment

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statistic nz - june 2015 quarter - unemployment

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Commentary from Statistics New Zealand:

The unemployment rate increased to 5.9 percent in the June 2015 quarter (up from 5.8 percent), Statistics New Zealand said today. At the same time, there were 7,000 more people employed over the quarter (up 0.3 percent).

“Even though employment grew over the quarter, population growth was greater, which resulted in a lower overall employment rate for New Zealand,” labour market and household statistics manager Diane Ramsay said.

“Despite lower quarterly growth, this is still the 11th consecutive quarter of employment growth, making it the second-longest period of growth since the period between 1992 and 1996,” Ms Ramsay said.

Over the year to June 2015, employment growth was still fairly strong (at 3 percent) with 69,000 more people employed. The manufacturing industry showed the strongest annual employment growth.

“This is the first time since the December 2013 quarter that the construction industry has not been the largest contributor to annual growth in employment,” Ms Ramsay said.

The vast majority of growth was in Auckland (29,600 people), where the annual employment growth was driven by retail trade and accommodation, followed by construction. Bay of Plenty had the second-highest employment growth, with 11,000 more people being employed over the year.

Annual wage inflation, as measured by the labour cost index, was 1.6 percent, compared with annual consumer price inflation of 0.3 percent.

Source

September 2015 quarter – Employment & Unemployment

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statistic nz - september 2015 quarter - unemployment

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Labour market at a glance

  • Number employed fell for the first time in three years.
  • Unemployment rate increased to 6.0 percent.
  • Labour force participation rate falls further from record high in March 2015 quarter.
  • Annual wage inflation remained at 1.6 percent.

Source

Additional analysis;

  1. The Employment Rate fell 0.5%
  2. According to the HLFS, Total actual weekly hours worked increased over the last Quarter by  +0.4, and  Annually, by +1.5

Which means few people are working longer hours to sustain economic growth.

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Other Economic Info

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ANZ Economic Outlook

The New Zealand economy has clearly entered a more challenging period. Growth averaged just a 0.3% quarterly pace over the first six months of the year vis-à-vis a 0.9% quarterly pace over the second half of 2014.

Annual growth slowed to 2.4% in Q2 (the slowest since December 2013) and timelier indicators suggest a pace tracking perhaps a tad below 2% at present; not dire – nor a downturn – but certainly sluggish and consistent with deceleration.

In per-capita terms, activity is treading water and slowing labour demand (but still-strong labour supply growth) has seen the unemployment rate tick up to close to 6% Consumer and business confidence have fallen, and where the expansion was previously relatively broad-based, a more divergent regional performance is now evident.

Full Report here.

CTU Economic Bulletin 173 – Oct 2015

Despite economic growth in production per hour worked which peaked at 4.7 percent in dollar terms in the year to June 2014, wage rises have been subdued. Even the Reserve Bank is commenting on it. What are some of the reasons for wage rises being low?

We have a poorly performing economy. Most of the recent growth has been because more people have been brought into the labour force or people are working longer hours, rather than because people are producing more in each hour they work. Over the supposed “rock star” period of June 2013 to June 2015, the economy’s production per hour worked increased only 0.1 percent. Yet companies’ profit rates are rising quickly – so wages could.

Even the Minister of Finance concedes that current strong net immigration is holding down wages. It could be much better controlled so that, while taking humanitarian concerns into account, it focuses on skills that New Zealand residents genuinely do not have or couldn’t be trained to do, and in numbers that the country can absorb.

The Government has been open about suppressing pay increases for people employed in the state sector. Its tight funding of contractors such as in aged care also holds down wages. By doing this, the Government is reducing pressure on private sector employers for pay increases.

Full Report here.

Building Consents – Statistics NZ

Fonterra

  • 24 September: Fonterra Co-operative Group lifted its forecast total available for payout for the 2015/16 season to $5.00 − $5.10 kgMS due to an increase in the forecast Farmgate Milk Price of 75 cents
  • 14 October: Standard and Poor’s  downgraded Fonterra’s  credit rating from A to A-

Westpac Economic Overview – November 2015

Brewing El Niño conditions are likely to cause dry weather and knock the economy. And there will be further challenges from a global economic slowdown, the levelling off of the Canterbury rebuild, and the possibility of a housing market slowdown in Auckland.

Full Report here.

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Addendum1: Under-employment

The  under-employment stats;

People who are underemployed are those who work part-time, would prefer to work more hours, and are available to do so. In unadjusted terms, the number of underemployed grew by 12 percent over the year. While the number of part-time workers increased over the year, the ratio of people underemployed to employed part-time also rose – from 17.1 percent in June 2013 to 18.7 percent this quarter.

Official under-employment: up

Definitions

Jobless: people who are either officially unemployed, available but not seeking work, or actively seeking but not available for work. The ‘available but not seeking work’ category is made up of the ‘seeking through newspaper only’, ‘discouraged’, and ‘other’ categories.

Under-employment: employed people who work part time (ie usually work less than 30 hours in all jobs) and are willing and available to work more hours than they usually do.

Employed: people in the working-age population who, during the reference week, did one of the following:

  • worked for one hour or more for pay or profit in the context of an employee/employer relationship or self-employment 

  • worked without pay for one hour or more in work which contributed directly to the operation of a farm, business, or professional practice owned or operated by a relative 

  • had a job but were not at work due to: own illness or injury, personal or family responsibilities, bad weather or mechanical breakdown, direct involvement in an industrial dispute, or leave or holiday.

Source

Addendum2: Other Sources

Statistics NZ:  Household Labour Force Survey

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[To  be periodically up-dated]

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RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR

12 COMMENTS

  1. Damning report card for a National led government with their defunct
    rock star economy as they continue to try and pull the wool over our eyes.

    Poor poor NZ having this kind of insanity and misery leading our country and the kids and families and hungry and homeless and veterans and the disabled etc. continue to suffer.

    Well put together piece that shows us more clearly what is going on.
    Again thanks Frank – I really appreciate your efforts.

  2. I was just talking to someone who was laid off at Westpac in October, after 12 years of service. This week, Westpac announced huge profits.

      • It’s interesting you mention that, Sam. The “robots” failed spectacularly on Saturday evening, here in Wellington, after the fireworks display. A certain carparking building must’ve lost tens of thousands of dollars when their system overloaded and crashed.

        I’ll hopefully blog on this in the next few days…

        • Funny thing is Lockmart is having similar problems with its hanger queen the F-35. Every time they find a fault it means they have to stop production fix the fault then patch the airframes already built. 😀 😀 😀

          One of my old offices use to share a printer. It use to get jammed a lot. But looking at all the worried faces when the pop up comes up saying action not allowed is priceless. 😀 😀 :D. Some things computers just can’t do.

          There’s this saying. It’s never the machines fault. It’s always the operator.

            • Giving AI’s the ability to learn is a dangerous proposition. At least that’s what Steven Hawking says. I’m guessing AI’s would want to consume a lot of resources we consume.

              My brain says Hawkins is right but my gut says I’m not that much of an asshole and my future aviator will love me and live forever

        • A lot of these big banks are attempting to add block chain technology to automate a lot of there intermediary functions. Which is daft cause there creating a really sophisticated Windows spread sheet, which is a joke.

          Most people think of a block chain as double entry accounting, it’s actually triple entry, assets, liabilities AND receipt. That’s what makes the block chain and crypto so much more trustworthy.

          You don’t have all those accountants, lawyers, ect ect turning a fee at every opportunity.

          Those are some jobs I am really really really looking forward to being automated.

  3. Excellent work and reporting again Frank …… It’s good to see the AndrewO & Gosman trolls are not slowing down your research and writing up of the detailed articles that you post here at TDB …….

    You present the facts and reality of this Nact govt ………….versus paula bennet & co with their spin of politically butchered misleading stats …… combined with a big dose of benefit blaming and bashing

    The General unemployment rate is understated by the government and to high even with their bullshit stats ……. Unemployment rates for the young and some minority groups are shockingly high and destructive for both them and our country.

    A real government would step up and actually do something ……. like giving free education and training for our young and others in the trades, sciences, design and everything else ….. And then put them to work designing and building zero emission, Eco-freindly sustainable housing, infrastructure, energy generation etc …..

    Unfortunately under the TPPA a New Zealand Government spending crown revenue for the good of it’s people is now probably illegal ……

    An example of this is what is happening to India at the moment …… Indias crime is ‘subsidizing’ their domestic solar panel manufacturing industry …

    The Indian Government is simultaneously trying to tackle climate change and also add to employment for its own largely impoverished citizens ……

    ” India’s Commerce Minister, Anand Sharma, added that the import restrictions on solar equipment are justified because phase II of India’s solar program includes major government subsidies and public money shouldn’t be used to pay for imports.”

    The result is the u.s.a is suing …… http://thediplomat.com/2014/02/us-disputes-indian-solar-power-policy-at-wto/

    Welcome to the TPPA world NZ ………

    P.s we are unlikely to be sued while the Nacts are the Government …. they always put short term profits and money for the few before the good of the country and people.

    • Thanks for that, Reason… interesting information there.

      And I fully concur;

      A real government would step up and actually do something ……. like giving free education and training for our young and others in the trades, sciences, design and everything else ….. And then put them to work designing and building zero emission, Eco-freindly sustainable housing, infrastructure, energy generation etc …..

      That would be a damned good start!

      In fact, that was one of my very first blogposts; Can we do it? Bloody oath we can!

      (Though I should’ve referred to eco-housing in the story.)

Comments are closed.