Immigration at 60 000, 7% unemployment, .4% growth and why National are so high in the Polls

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There is no depression in NZ

So many chickens coming home to roost there isn’t any more room to house them all.

National’s lazy immigration that has now hit a new high of 60 000 this year is what is fuelling the housing bubble and when you remove the rebuild in Christchurch, even property speculation isn’t enough to keep the GDP above a pathetic .4%.

Australia has always been a pressure valve for our unemployment rate and with their economy hurt worse than ours by China’s downturn, migration to Australia has dried up and that suggests our unemployment currently at 5.7% and predicted to rise to 6.5% could now hit 7%.

Dairy prices have risen,  but that isn’t because of a new desire for more of our main product, it’s because NZ is putting far less dairy on the market for sale.

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Beyond crony capitalism and corporate welfare, beyond fuelling a property bubble, beyond putting all our cows in one Beijing paddock and beyond rebuilding from a  natural disaster, this Government has bugger all to show for 7 years in office except  305 000 kids in poverty, 5.7% unemployment and most NZers priced out of buying a home in their own country.

TDB Recommends NewzEngine.com

So why is National higher in the latest TV3 Poll than they were on election night?

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There are 2 main reasons.

First, and let’s be honest, the extreme bias of the mainstream media is now akin to a one party state. Anyone claiming (as they do on Whaleoil and Kiwiblog) that the media in this country has a left wing bias are the sort of people who would suggest Fox News is too liberal. The echo chamber that stretches from the banal wasteland of commercial radio to Paul Henry to Mike Hosking to vile hate merchant blogs to pundits on most political shows to newspapers to the press gallery, the simpering acquiesce towards this Governments neoliberal myths is set in concrete. The total lack of critical voices in the media is so deafening now it’s embarrassing. This media landscape means we don’t have a fourth estate watchdogs, we have infotainment lap dogs.

The second reason why Key is still so high in the polls is because the middle classes who have benefitted so much from the speculative bubble are earning more from their house valuations each year than from their actual jobs. Those middle classes will not walk away from Key while that illusion of wealth is so deeply built into their perception of success. Egalitarianism doesn’t pay for the holidays to Bali and if kids are going hungry well it’s the fault of the dumb people who decided to have them without being able to afford for them. That is the cult of selfishness that dictates NZ politics right now and Labour’s desire to dump their Capital Gains Tax shows the power of that voting block.

The poor and the disengaged have fled the ballot box, the baby boomer property speculators rule it. The polls will only change when the property market pops.

 

20 COMMENTS

  1. Our population went up (80,000?) more than the infrastructure equivalent of say the Hutt Valley last year , that’s quite a large hospital, 3+(?)high schools, at a guess a few thousand km of roads?, and what? 60,000 bedrooms!
    And we are going to do the same this year?
    How many thousand refugees should we add to this insanity?
    We are going to be fighting over which bridge we get to sleep under.
    http://www.vhemt.org 😉

  2. 1. Record immigration is not, in and of itself, the Governments fault, surely. In fact it could be considered a vote of confidence in the direction of the country, particularly if it is partly caused by NZ’ers returning home.

    2. With record immigration, it is hardly surprising GDP per capita has declined. Conventional economics tells us that this will reverse as the immigration data contributes to the economy. That Grant Robertson is using this data shows just how little he understands.

    3. Quoting the GDP as 0.4% is misleading. This is a quarterly figure, and compares with a forecast of the period of just 0.7%.

    The reason this Govt is so popular has nothing to do with media bias or the property bubble. They are simply seen as better stewards of NZ than the current alternatives.

    • Amos;

      Record immigration is not, in and of itself, the Governments fault, surely. In fact it could be considered a vote of confidence in the direction of the country, particularly if it is partly caused by NZ’ers returning home.

      Not necessarily. In fact, it is more likely that New Zealanders are returning home from Australia because there is no welfare available to many of them if they are made redundant. Hence, returning home is a choice because staying in Oz and starving, or boarding a flight so people can eat.

      Yes, it’s as simple as that. Nothing to do with the government (our own unemployment is at 5.8% and expected to rise).

      Conventional economics tells us that this will reverse as the immigration data contributes to the economy.

      Or it could force up unemployment – as is happening now.

      An inconvenient fact in your cheerleading praise of this government, but true nevetheless.

      Quoting the GDP as 0.4% is misleading.

      Nevertheless, it is true.

      Along with rising unemployment and falling consumer and business confidence.

      The reason this Govt is so popular has nothing to do with media bias or the property bubble. They are simply seen as better stewards of NZ than the current alternatives.

      Again, untrue and unsupported by facts.

      Under National,

      >>> Unemployment has risen

      >>> They have posted seven consecutive deficits (Labour posted nine consecutive surpluses)

      >>> They have created a massive, and growing debt (Labour paid down debt)

      >>> National cut taxes in 2009 and 2010, at an estimated cost of $4 billion per year, forcing them to borrow from offshore to fund those taxcuts

      >>> National has engaged in corporate welfarism with Warner Bros, SkyCity, Rio Tinto, a Saudi businessman, and probably others we don’t know about

      >>> National’s “better stewardship” is exemplified by running Solid Energy into the ground. The collapse of a billion-dollar state owned enterprise can be sheeted home to National demanding high dividend payments and changing the rules on bio-fuels production

      >>> National has wasted millions on fiascos like INCIS, Novopay, Serco, etc

      >>> Wages continue to lag behind Australia, something Bill English crowed about as an “advantage”; http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/4869938/Low-wages-advantage-for-NZ-English

      >>> National’s “growth” strategy has been predicated on the Christchurch re-build; Auckland housing bubble; and the dairy boom – one of which is in a ‘bust’ cycle

      >>> Even business were moved at one point to admit that National had no plan to develop the economy; http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10763014

      When even businessmen start criticising National, you know there’s a problem.

      I’d love to say I’m “sorry to burst your bubble”, but, well… *pop!*

      • Frank, that is the most nonsense I have even seen you write. I have always thought you were fair. Amos makes some very good points.

        Do you believe in the tooth fairy? I will not comment on the points made by Martyn as I simply think he is wrong.

        However, on your points:

        1) are you saying that NZ’s are returning to NZ in their droves to take advantage of the welfare system which they have not been contributing to with their taxes? Most departed to earn more!

        2) unemployment may have risen marginally – but refer 1) above. More people looking for a job market not increasing at the same pace.

        3) Defits under national – there has been the GFC and the Christchurch earthquakes.

        4) National reversed some of the prohibitive tax increases imposed by Labour – I suspect mainly to move the economy forward.

        5) Warner Bros etc was ensuring industry stayed in NZ.

        6) Solid Energy – are you saying that the government is responsible for the global coal price crisis (I imagine so as they have been blamed for the dairy crisis).

        7) Australia wages may be higher but look at their economy and see 1) above – why are the NZ’s returning to NZ so that they can claim welfare.

        8) The Christchurch rebuild has been of assistance. To blame the Auckland property market see 1) above. You should also explain why there are building booms in Sydney, Melborne, Vancouver, London etc etc – surely the NZ government are not responsible for this or does TDB think they are?

        9) The dairy boom is global not just restricted to NZ. We are a country able to produce food and with the falling dollar this will improve, just look at what is happening with beef and lamb.

      • Where’s the figures that show New Zealanders are returning home from Australia in droves? Interesting that they never seem to put those out. But there are unprecedented levels of other nationalities arriving. Those figures are undeniable.

      • Where’s the figures that show New Zealanders are returning home from Australia in droves? Interesting that they never show those. But there are unprecedented levels of other nationalities arriving. Those figures are undeniable.

    • 1 – it is the Governments fault when they set the threshold for immigrating to NZ for those who can buy residency. They set the rules.

      2 – Which is why immigration has to be regulated or else you swamp your ability to keep up the infrastructure.

      3 – It is a quarterly figure and the link to the site where it is quoted makes that clear.

      The reason the Govt are popular is because the media is one large echo chamber and the middle classes are profiteering from the property bubble. You claim the govt are better stewards – 305 000 kids in poverty beg to differ, the 5.7% unemployed beg to differ, the first time home buyers in Auckland beg to differ, the students who can’t eat beg to differ, the 1 million who didn’t bother voting beg to differ, the poor beg to differ. Serco is good stewardship? The do nothing approach to climate change is better stewardship? Mass surveillance is better stewardship? Vast unchecked surveillance power to the Police is better stewardship? The TPPA is better stewardship? The killing off of public broadcasting is better stewardship? The SIS being able to spy without warrants is better stewardship? Allowing Warner Bros to buy labour legislation is better stewardship? Allowing Sky City to rewrite gambling laws is better stewardship? Lying about re-invading Iraq before the election and then sending troops in is better stewardship is it?

    • They are seen as better stewards of the economy precisely because of right-wing media bias and the property bubble. The situation in this country is so bad now that every day is like some sort of tragicomedy of epic proportions. It feels like we are living through some sort of prelude to a Mad Max apocalypse with the crazy electric guitarist chained to the truck thrashing out metal music chords. The sane voices are in the minority and struggle to be heard over the racket of delusional noise and fictional beliefs.

  3. Ring-a-ring o’ roses,
    A pocket full of posies,
    A-tishoo! A-tishoo!
    We all fall down….

    One of the things any speculator knows that what goes up must come down.

    And one prominent analyst among the Bank of Switzerland who predicted the 2008 financial credit crash has come out and said conditions are exactly the same just prior to that year – and ominously – that the coming crash will be far more severe …so much so that it will make the 2008 crash look like just a small blip on the financial radar by comparison.

    Ring -a – ring o’ roses ,
    A pocket full of posies,
    A – tishoo! , A – tishoo! ,
    We all fall down…..

    The cows are in the meadow
    Eating buttercups,
    A-tishoo! A-tishoo!
    We all jump up.

    Ring -a – ring o’ roses ,
    A pocket full of posies,
    A – tishoo! , A – tishoo! ,
    We all fall down…..

  4. House value increases only put money in your pocket when they’re sold, or if you leverage the property to take out a new loan. I don’t know the statistics on multiple ownership i.e. property investment, but the current high prices will only pay off once you sell your home… and where will you live? So steak’n’chips National (and Labour) voters are counting their chickens for mystical retirement money, all that could crash into oblivion with a debt:value fiasco a la USA, 2008.

    It sounds like intergenerational jealousy, but I’m sickened that those who control our volatile property market with ever increasing horse trading (sic) also contribute far less to our tax system by writing off “lost profits” through interest-only loans. The madness must be stopped with a true CGT.

    • It’s intergenerational economic warfare. And the baby-boomers started it. – quote my three sons (and they will finish it).

  5. “First, and let’s be honest, the extreme bias of the mainstream media is now akin to a one party state.”

    Yes it is heading for a one Party state alright, and the MSM is driving it all the way greasing Nactional’s wheels all the way to our destruction to a banana state Junta.

  6. With no limits on foreign ownership, will the property bubble pop? Or will New Zealanders turn from home owners, to tenants, and eventually into indentured servants in our own country?

  7. Spot on in my opinion.

    I`m not sure ‘they’ know that they are doing any harm. Martin suggests, it`s a purposeful. but I`m not sure that it is. Intent, infers ‘they’ have perspective, when in reality they don`t, do they?

    If I hang out with the elite, live with the elite, drink, party, meet with the elite, I will have the same perspective as the elite, and only the elite. And any and all other perspectives are simply conspiracies or hogwash. Because, I can`t see. I have lost all ability to even contemplate because everything I admire is bound up in a very narrow perspective.

    It`s coming out in the data, where clustering creates a common thought pattern, that self perpetuates, to include lies, and profit. Read this article if you have a moment – entitled “cooperation and corruption” http://bit.ly/1V9dWRY

    The key in my opinion, is being able to govern with perspective, which is almost impossible if all of the politicians and media, come from, and are etched from the same stone. It`s a pity, and I agree with Martin, it`s reality but I do question the intent. Key is a banker, he admires finance guys, and doesn`t understand anything else other than making a buck, no matter where it comes from (despite being raised in state home). So, he has no comprehension when it comes to social good, or corporate social responsibility (CSR) which by the way, his government promoted and then canned. But he isn`t the only one. My own family have amongst it lawyers who have no perspective either. They think of the law as binding, and unequivocal when it is of course, always changing, iterative and pliable.

    I could go on forever, so, I will stop.

    Yes, the property bubble will pop, when China stops fueling it.
    http://on.wsj.com/1MHuDVu

    And for those interested in a kinda geeky read.
    A recent paper based on invisible forces that drive economic markets.
    http://bit.ly/1V9cWgO

  8. Where’s the figures that show New Zealanders are returning home from Australia in droves? Interesting that they never show those. But there are unprecedented levels of other nationalities arriving. Those figures are undeniable.

  9. Where’s the figures that show New Zealanders are returning home from Australia in droves?
    Interesting that they never show those.

    But there are unprecedented levels of other nationalities arriving. Those figures are undeniable.

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