John Armstrong Gets It Wrong On Winston And NZ First – AGAIN

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Early last week, Herald resident naysayer John Armstrong published a piece which basically set out that New Zealand First – a Party which, according to sane observers, is pretty much in the form of its life – had no future.

The reaction to this was fierce. And I don’t just mean from die-hard zealots such as myself.

All across the mediasphere, pundits came out of the woodwork to tell Armstrong how wrong he was.

Evidently, Armstrong has taken heed of this … because his latest piece published Saturday morning takes the opposite tack.

Instead, it’s a column about the future of New Zealand First.

Which is awesome in one way – and I commend Armstrong for having the courage to write a piece contradicting his previous assertions, and in so doing implicitly admit he was in error … but unfortunately, he’s once again gotten the wrong end of the stick.

Now that’s not to say Armstrong’s piece is completely without merit, however.

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With regard to what he gets right, he’s absolutely 100% correct to suggest that Winston’s in “rude good health and is as passionate and energized as ever”. I would also agree with the assertion that Winston “will want to show that his byelection victory in the Northland seat was no fluke or was the result of voters having the luxury of voting against the Government without having to worry that they might end up ousting it”.

Indeed, the nation-wide outpouring of support for Winston’s stirling campaign effort up in Northland would seem to suggest that there is a very large, very real, and very vocal demographic of new New Zealand First supporters lining up behind our Party and silently-or-shoutingly willing us to victory with the stern suggestion that we outright CHANGE the government.

But as applies what Armstrong gets wrong … reading his second piece again, it hit me that the whole thing is an exercise in very carefully crafting a subtly insidious metanarrative around Winston – that he’s old, fuddy-duddy … a man eering into his nineties with no genuine plan for the future, and still stuck in that mythical 1950s period Armstrong keeps assuming is the status quo NZ First nirvana.

I mean, apart from the continual suggestions that Winston is some sort of latter-day Winston Churchill – replete, no doubt, with a snide undercurrent of suggestion that we look at the somewhat disastrous second term of Churchill as PM – and in particular the way he deliberately clung on to power for as long as possible in order to disenfranchise his successor Anthony Eden by denying him the limelight and a decent shot at power – there’s also a slew of other elements.

First up, the idea that Winston has “bowed” to pressures to launch himself onto social media. Typical cliche – and typically wrong. I was the man who first brooched the idea of setting up facebook and twitter accounts for Winston to Winston (and indeed, for a long time *was* Winston Peters on facebook, in coalition with two other individuals) … and inspired by the extreme successes of other politicians overseas in the medium, he leaped upon the concept with a characteristic vigor. This was some five years ago. Now he’s writing haikus at the Prime Minister which get reported in daily newspapers.

As applies the “endless circuit of Grey Power speaking engagements” claim Armstrong makes about how we fund ourselves and campaign … that’s blatantly false.

Yes, yes we DO have a productive relationship with the Super/Gold Community. Yes, yes Winston DOES attend a reasonable number of their AGMs as a guest speaker. But for the most part, Winston (and our other MPs) speak to a whole slew of community organizations – and, more to the point, hold our own NZF public meetings which often end up packed to the rafters all by themselves.

I personally remember being at a speech in Auckland which had more than a thousand people in the room, for instance; while you’ll find a score of citations in the media for often-open-air public meetings up and down the country which have attracted hundreds and hundreds of attendees each.

We also all remember Winston’s epic campaign effort (on a bus) up in Northland – night after night on the 6 o’clock news, you’d have clips of him walking the streets and pounding the ground from small-town center to small-town center across National’s forgotten heartland in order to connect with voters and raise enthusiasm and anti-Government ire.

I certainly don’t think all THOSE street-corner meetings were just exclusively with Grey Power! (Further, where Armstrong claims there’s some sort of necessary duality between twitter and street-corner meetings, I note that Winston found a useful synergy – broadcasting the success of his face-to-face social interactions on social media, instead 😉 … Keep up, John! You must be having trouble getting to grips with all this new technology!)

In any case, the bit where my eyes *most* went bull-attracting-colour while also causing me to lose my bull-attracting device (so to speak – same colour) … was the final few paragraphs about likely successors to Winston.

Now as my long-time readers will know, this is a subject both near and dear to my heart.
In fact, I’m half-way through covering the exact same issue in a reasonably well-read series right here on TDB entitled “Life After Winston“.

The first piece covered the prospects of men like John Tamihere and Shane Jones – and comprehensively wrote them off in favour of more serious contenders like Ron Mark.

And while I’m glad that Armstrong’s evidently given my piece a passing glance … it would have greatly behooved him to actually read the damn thing, rather than just scouring it for Dramatis Personae.

If he’d done so, he’d have realized that both men are eminently less-than-suitable for the future leadership of NZ First. That’s why their piece was subtitled “Pretenders To The Throne“.

In the case of Tamihere: yes, yes he does have a certain ability to “reach out to conservative working class voters”. At the arguable cost of offending just about everyone else. And, more to the point, he’s rigidly staked his colours to the mast by attempting (highly publicly and ultimately somewhat humiliatingly) to rejoin the Labour Party. He’s also something of the “anti-Winston” when it comes to the latter’s fastidious approach and attention to detail. In fact, I believe that’s *exactly* what seasoned and senior Press Gallery journalist Jane Clifton called him. On top of all of this, you’d have to wonder how a former politician whose two main media outings in recent years have been an enthusiastic endorsement of Whanau Ora (which Winston spent most of the previous term furiously attacking, demonstrating a dissonance of values with Tamihere) – and an appallingly handled on-air appearance about the rape of a minor – could ever hope to step into Winston’s slickly shined shoes.

And as applies Shane Jones … well … I’d *like* to say I share Armstrong’s appreciation for Jones’ merits on paper – but I don’t.

Armstrong is right to say that Jones has an “intellect”, an ability with “oratory”, and some “political nous”. I wouldn’t go so far as to say that he “ticks all the boxes” on those fronts, or that he implicitly deserves to share a podium with Winston when it comes to his relative merits in those fields.

But he does have some skill.

Unfortunately, NONE of those aptitudes are in the right areas to take NZ First forward on into the future.

I mean, yes. Obviously a smaller (but rapidly growing) Party needs a charismatic frontman. And particularly given the populist-politics NZ First has previously prided ourselves on promulgating, pushing passionately from a pulpit is pretty much a pre-requisite de rigeur for any politician purporting to perambulate as Peters’ protege.

But it’s not enough. What we need for the immediate post-Peters future (and there’s no sign that’ll be at any point near to the horizon just yet), is an organizer. Someone who can inspire our people, gather them up, whip them into shape, and ultimately BUILD A FUNCTIONAL MASS-MOVEMENT PARTY OUT OF THEM.

Someone, in short, like Ron Mark.

Even leaving aside Jones’ immense Nepalese-sherpa-conveyed-baggage-train of previous encumbrances (ranging from the trivial one you all know about, through to the much more important public perceptions of him as the man who abandoned his people to pursue a plum job dangled before him by the National Party, through to his ongoing run of electoral failures, and most important of all the fact that nobody like a johnny-come-lately parachuting in to lord it over all the rest who’ve been in for the long haul) … he’s just not capable of matching Mark for organizational aptitude and talent.

If New Zealand First is to survive past the visionary period of Winston Peters’ Leadership (and rest assured, we will) … we need to be lead and inspired by a man who is resolutely capable of actually *building* movements and formations. That way, even as the mighty beating heart of our Party dims a little, we still wind up organized and coagulated around a set of core common principles and unified into action.

As a viable mass-movement political party. Rather than, as Armstrong seems to believe, an organization which attempts to be almost North Korean in its veneration from the shadows of its Eternal President; rather than moving forward gracefully with the spirit and the ideals of the past helping to inform – rather than onstrain – present or future action and growth.

An ability to use long words and flowery rhetoric’s nice and all (hence one of the reasons people keep reading my writing, I guess) – but at the end of the day, it’s no substitute for an actual overwhelming connection to our values; ability to motivate, muster and manage large groups of people; and ultimately, the ability to BUILD a Party, rather than simply inheriting one created off the backs of the hard labour of others.

So far, the mass-media narrative around Jones has completely failed to demonstrate how he can do any of that, instead appearing to believe that a certain way with words will win the day in its stead.

Until they’re capable of doing that – and rest assured, they won’t – there really is only ONE man capable of leading New Zealand First on into the post-Winston period.

And that’s Ron Mark.

Because when it comes to the future of YOUR Party and YOUR Nation … accept no substitutes.

35 COMMENTS

  1. First up Armstrong was definitely on something last week. As one blog put it “Keys cheerleaders were sent in” after Nationals seemingly never ending turmoil, the vast majority of which is the making of its own underhand dishonesty.

    Obviously NZ First is a real quandary for National, and this far out from the election the party looks like a stayer and very much a decisive factor in the future. So in absence of supporting National, they start the ball rolling by saying NZF have no future. And cue the Heralds political editor, like a faithful organ grinders monkey. Say the lie often enough and it becomes a reality. Personally I think the PM’s Office of Dirt will no doubt focus on NZ First more intently if they feel even more threatened.

    I agree with you on JT and most definitely Jones. I wouldn’t have him anywhere near NZ First, a cheap individual who took the money and ran when paid off by McCully, who as we know is very familiar with “facilitation payments” and “creative solutions” (no it was Al Capone who coined those terms, it was John Key, okay well maybe John plagiarised them from some other crook).

    And on that front also last week was Armstrong’s farcical and frankly unbelievable praise of John Key blaming Labour for the bribery and corruption of the NZ Government in Saudi Arabia. There was nothing to hint Labour were to blame for any subsequent events from decisions made in their time in office regarding live animal exports and worse absolutely nothing to indicate they had a thing to do with the bribes paid to a Saudi millionaire. But hey, Key apparently defused the situation by lying anyway and to Armstrong it was pure greatness.

    So just when you think the NZ Herald is starting to realise it has shed far too many subscribers and readers because of its blatant affiliation to the National Party it trots shit out like this, along with Hosking and Roughan’s little encores!

  2. See here’s the thing: so many words and (as yet) so few comments (except, now, mine).
    The problem for the coherent continuation of New Zealand First, post-Peters, is that there is no identifiable continuous place on the political spectrum for a populist but idiocratic movement. Nor can there be.
    By definition, a party that relies on its leader, no matter how charismatic, to set its course will more than struggle for relevance when the retiring pilot is gone.
    You can organize yourself out of as many paper bags as you like, but not out of a vacuum.
    What is more likely to happen is that you attempt to codify what was essentially one man’s take on politics and end up being captured by one or other pre-existing movement. Maybe the libertarians, maybe some anti-foreigner right-wing group, maybe an ultra-punitive group like the Sensible Sentencing Trust or some fringe group advocating rule by referendum. None will be seen as “authentic Winston” although the name will be bandied like Jesus for a while.
    Then the “movement” will die.
    I disagree with John Armstrong on almost everything, but his original prediction for new Zealand First was on the money.
    That does not mean that NZF is irrelevant now.
    If I were you I would worry more about what you can contribute over the next two or three years, and let the legacy issues look after themself.

    • …if you genuinely perceive strong coterminities between NZ First and libertarians … then um … well, I guess it’s no wonder you don’t see a future for NZF 😉

      Anyway, I don’t disagree that an overly-Leader-centric model isn’t great for longievity. That’s why we’re in the business of movement-building right now. To transform ourselves into something bigger than that, and more organic.

      And yes, supporting somebody with a demonstrable and observable skillset for doing exactly that is a grand place to start.

  3. NZ First has its passionate supporters but I suspect their future is due to the MMP system rather than any great light they can offer us. Personally I doubt that they will have the same impact once Winston retires, who remembers Social Credit now?

  4. Was rather hoping John Campbell would enter the fray as a member of NZ First. If Maggie Barry can get into National,then John Campbell would be a super addition to NZ First,so would Judy Bailey ,
    a dream team with Winston Peters and Ron Mark.

  5. capcha was right but says in error.will try again.

    Would like to see John Campbell and Judy Bailey join NZ first,also Martyn Bradbury,a dream team with Winston and Ron Mark.

    capcha correct7x8=56.

    • I tried three times and said I was duplicating it and I see here it never got posted.
      Hope this note does and try again

      • Curwen, it bothers me that two other readers failed to be able to connect and a little later I tried to post a comment and failed. All I wanted to know was more information on a remit passed at the recent NZ First conference, to the effect that an NZ First government would prevent private banks from creating electronic money from nothing.
        Apart from an off hand reference in a snide article by Andrea Vance, the MSM has ignored this remit completely, yet if true, it is the biggest change to the monetary system for decades, so what is going on?

  6. 4th attempt to post.
    John Campbell, Judy Bailey, Martyn Bradbury a dream team with Winston and Ron Mark in NZ first.

    capcha correct

    • Made a blogpost today at about 3.30pm – was told that the blogpost had already been sent. Regrettably, neither of these posts made the blog. My carefully researched blogpost was not saved so I am unable to replicate what I said earlier.

      I see others have had problems – is there an issue?

      [ Grant, your post ended up in a Folder it shouldn’t have. I’ve only just found it and allowed it to be published. Glitch in the system? I’ll let Admin know. – ScarletMod ]

    • Curwen, the article is all very nice, and putting the book into John Armstrong is greatly appreciated, but you are saying nothing as far as I can tell about the recent NZ First conference. Surely that is an opportunity too good to miss.
      I have seen nothing in the MSM about its content apart from the usual vaccuous TVNZ News, which said nothing worth hearing, and an article by Amanda Vance, which was nothing more than a series of snide comments intended to paint the Party as past it.
      Having lost the article, I must do this from (very faulty) memory.She mentioned only three resolutions worth commenting on, two of which didn’t interest me. The third resolution mentioned that an NZ First government would remove the power of banks to create money from nothing. I believe the vote was 90~50 in favour. Amanda Vance dismissed this on the grounds that National had investigated this in 1990 and ditched it. No other media thought it worth commenting on. Neither apparently do you.
      This is mind-blowing, because whether you agree or not it represents the biggest shift in economic policy by any Party in parliament for decades. Can we have an explanation please.

      [ Dennis, your post ended up in a Folder it shouldn’t have. I’ve only just found it and allowed it to be published. There must be a glitch in the system and I’ve let Admin know. – ScarletMod ]

      • Thanks for that feedback, Dennis.

        I did three posts on NZ First’s Convention *from* the Convention earlier this week.

        However, I ran into some trouble talking about the specifics of what had gone on in one of them, and was asked to *ahem* self-censor.

        But I shall consider most strongly putting up some material detailing the policy remit sessions if it’s of interest to people.

        • Curwen, it must be obvious from my various attempts to get a comment printed, that I at least would be very pleased to get some information on that remit, even if it is nothing more than confirmation that, yes, it passed (by 90 votes to 50 I believe).

    • Three attempts to post. First said I was duplicating. None of the three have appeared?

      [ Grant, your post ended up in a Folder it shouldn’t have. I’ve only just found it and Approved it to be published. Sorting through it. – ScarletMod ]

  7. Yes , … I read that article by Armstrong as well and saw right through the guy. If your pushing an agenda ( ie : pro govt / pro Key ) its pretty hard to cover that up from the public no matter what prose you try and use – the public aint that stupid.

    And the two successors touted by Armstrong were equally as inane…

    Jones is off and away and doing his own thing…effectively muted…Tamihere the same but for different reasons…

    The fact of the matter is this – and its plain for most to see but Armstrong…its Ron Mark. He emanates that leadership. And Armstrong’s opinion can be discounted simply because he is pro Key and doesn’t want an effective NZ First successor.

    From what can be seen,…Mark may not have the verbosity as the other two , but he also doesn’t have the same mercurial temperament as well. And as an ex SAS officer there’s a reason for that.

    Those leadership qualities trained and groomed as an officer will ensure he has a pragmatic and efficient style – also one whereby he will not simply oppose something for the sake of opposing…everything to be taken by merit not bias. Yet he can be combative ,…which is needed – and stand his ground….we’ve seen that already.

    Basically he is not just a talker – he’s a leader. He has a different style of leadership than Peters….perhaps not as reliant on humour or charm and perhaps of a quieter manner than Peters but nonetheless….dead serious and able to command that recognition from his political foes…

    Like Peters, …Mark will be taken seriously by the other party’s…and until there is another with qualities like these Mark will remain the logical choice it would seem – unless your writing a biased pro National opinion piece for the NZ Herald.

  8. Well why then do we have such a hard time working out what NZF stands for? We get that you don’t like foreigners (or too many of them), and don’t like the government, especially Key. Or ‘Maori separatism’.

    All the media focuses on is Winston. Despite this author’s misgivings about her, Tracy Martin is the one who spends a lot of time actually talking about things like sustainability and environment – unlike her leader and deputy who are as much the story as their words.

    • actually, Andrew Williams did most of the talking about sustainability and the environment … you will find his response to the Budget before last, for instance, commits NZ First to a serious degree of action on climate change.

      Up-and-coming star Darroch Ball has also had much that is positive to say on this front, for example his last appearance on Backbenches.

      I can’t say I’ve ever seen Tracey talk about the environment….

  9. Winston entered parliament as a National member and developed under the shadow of Rob Muldoon an absolute dictator. Winston runs NZ First like Muldoon ran National. ie “you can do what you like in this party as long as it is what I want to do”.

    Ron Mark may be able to lead the party but would never have the same appeal as Winston. NZ First is and has always been a one man band.

  10. Q+A today and Winston won over the pundits firmly today as he cut through all the verbal double speak that Andrew Little and the Farmer federation NatZ guy was trying to ramble through without saying bad things about Planet Key.

    Fonterra was stupid and seemed not to be up to the world of competition now at all.

    No wonder we are in such deep shit here.

    Winston is a formidable ally for us to roll this Government now as they are very shaky, and even their Financial trumpets are making massive errors in their Economic forecast, in July about our failing “Rock star economy” he was saying is about to “Encore” the same one that is crumbling as we speak.

    So compare last month to now with this from a senior Bank financial forecaster.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/70373538/hsbc-economist-frederic-neumann-predicts-encore-for-rock-star-economy

  11. Still cant blog
    Q+A today and Winston won over the pundits firmly today as he cut through all the verbal double speak that Andrew Little and the Farmer federation NatZ guy was trying to ramble through without saying bad things about Planet Key.

    Fonterra was stupid and seemed not to be up to the world of competition now at all.

    No wonder we are in such deep shit here.

    Winston is a formidable ally for us to roll this Government now as they are very shaky, and even their Financial trumpets are making massive errors in their Economic forecast, in July about our failing “Rock star economy” he was saying is about to “Encore” the same one that is crumbling as we speak.

    So compare last month to now with this from a senior Bank financial forecaster.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/70373538/hsbc-economist-frederic-neumann-predicts-encore-for-rock-star-economy

  12. About that vacant and unofficial youth wing position…

    Whoever is your marketing manager – they’re missing a useful demographic and allowing both Labour and National to take the high ground. Both of the old parties have ‘youth sections’. Some participants even make it through the minefields and gauntlets to reach being considered for parliament. The rest are useful as valuable letter box feeders and dish washers.

    So many of the ‘old-time’ training opportunities for speakers, schemers, and natural-born politicians are no longer there. Where will you be recruiting? Your ‘silver fox’ needs something better than lemmings, surely?

    Agree with you about Ron Mark. And I like Barbara Stewart. There’s a touch of the Jeanette FitzSimons about her. Good 2IC, she seems – and worth her weight in precious things.

    But that vacant youth wing. Time to start scurrying, perhaps.

    • see, we *had* one of those … then it ran into Tracey.

      I’ll detail in a future post what happened to NZ First Youth.

      Suffice to say I was NOT amused to see my last half-decade’s worth of work setting one up marginalized in a single press-release earlier last month.

  13. The fundamental problem New Zealand First has is it’s lack of candidates in allot of areas. If that was turned around they would have a very good shot at becoming more than a minor party. Before the by-election there was no NZF candidate for Northland at all. Obviously it is very difficult to gain seats without good people standing for them!

    • I have tried to send my post 6 times and it disappears Scarlet Mod can you get mine out of that folder too please and post it?

      [Cleangreen; are you referring to your 2015/08/09 at 9:58 pm post? – ScarletMod]

  14. I have just posted a laborious commentwith my one typing finger re- to this article and it has disappeared. I hav never experienced this before. In view of the comments above, all claiming similar difficulties, can I ask what is going on?

  15. today on Q+A Winston won over the pundits firmly today as he cut through all the verbal double speak that Andrew Little and the Farmer federation NatZ guy was trying to ramble through without saying bad things about Planet Key.

    Fonterra was stupid and seemed not to be up to the world of competition now at all.

    No wonder we are in such deep shit here.

    Winston is a formidable ally for us to roll this Government now as they are very shaky, and even their Financial trumpets are making massive errors in their Economic forecast, in July about our failing “Rock star economy” he was saying is about to “Encore” the same one that is crumbling as we speak.

    So compare last month to now with this from a senior Bank financial forecaster.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/70373538/hsbc-economist-frederic-neumann-predicts-encore-for-rock-star-economy

  16. Agreed cleangreen – Winston is a formidable opponent – hence the obvious reason behind John Armstrongs article. I just wonder how many people the MSM thinks they are fooling anymore? Reading the comments via social media, it seems very few. Do they actually know they are going down the toilet?
    NZH- good for lighting the fire.
    Winston- good for saying what needs to be said!

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