TIM GROSER may be a lot smarter than even his most fervent supporters claim. It’s just possible that the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) – as currently drafted – is the document he had in mind all along. That, from its humble origins as a modest New Zealand trade initiative, the TPPA was always viewed by Groser as the sprat to catch a giant US mackerel.
With the benefit of hindsight, it is clear there was never the slightest chance that the United States was ever going to sit back and let a handful of small Pacific states set up a free-trade zone from which it was excluded. As a pretty shrewd geopolitician, Groser would also have realised that, as the US slowly disengaged from its military entanglements in the Middle East, there was a very high probability that its struggle with China in the Pacific – disrupted by 9/11 and all that it inspired – would be resumed.
A comprehensive free-trade agreement, including an increasingly apprehensive Japan – but excluding the Peoples Republic of China – was an obvious “next move” for a United States determined to reassert its hegemony over the nations of the Pacific Rim. It was also an obvious “next move” for New Zealand, whose economic fortunes were, to a potentially dangerous degree, becoming entwined with those of its principal protector’s principal rival.
The plausibility of this argument depends entirely on how skilled at playing geopolitical chess you are willing to believe this country’s diplomats and trade envoys truly are.
Who was it, for example, who initiated the process which led to the New Zealand-China Free Trade Agreement (FTA): New Zealand or China?
This country’s preference, for at least the past two decades, has been an FTA with the United States. Was it the latter’s refusal to negotiate seriously (i.e. to commit to the liberalisation of its agricultural sector) that persuaded the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) to focus its attention, instead, on the Chinese? Because, in addition to boosting our exports, the New Zealand-China FTA also provided our diplomats with the precious bonus of just a little leverage vis-à-vis our “very, very, very good” friends in Washington. Groser, himself, is at pains to reassure anybody who asks, that should the TPPA negotiations fall through, New Zealand will not be left without options. Sceptics are invited to ponder the significance of New Zealand’s early decision to join the Chinese-initiated Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
Could Tim Groser and his colleagues at MFAT really be so smart? Is it possible that, sometime in the next few days, New Zealand will put its signature to a document that gives its key exporters the best of both worlds? Not only a vastly rewarding economic relationship with the second most powerful economic entity on the planet; but also the long-sought and much-desired prize of a free-trade agreement with the world’s mightiest nation? Well, yes, it is possible. And, if it happens, Tim Groser’s much anticipated appointment as this country’s next ambassador to the United States will have been well-earned.
From Washington, Groser will be supremely well-positioned to judge just how serious the developing struggle between the US Eagle and Chinese Dragon has become. With the TPPA in place, he will, of course, be free to choose between these two heraldic beasts. Free access for New Zealand’s agricultural exports to all the markets of the Pacific Rim – especially those of the USA, Canada and Japan – will mean that if push eventually comes to shove, New Zealand’s economic eggs will not be concentrated in the basket labelled “Made in China”.
A Peoples Republic of China beset by crashing stock markets and a rapidly slowing pace of economic growth will soon be faced with even greater difficulties. Constant economic expansion has been utterly crucial to the Communist Party of China’s ability to keep its population, if not happy, then at least quiescent. Mass unemployment, sharpened by the mass impoverishment of China’s rural and urban stock market investors, could very easily panic China’s leaders into a series of ultra-nationalist distractions in the South China Sea or along the Sino-Indian border. Very quickly, having all our economic (and most of our diplomatic) eggs in a single Chinese basket could prove to be very awkward.
Many New Zealanders are fearful of the TPPA. They worry about the future of Pharmac and are alarmed at the prospect of becoming enmeshed in the coils of the Investor State Dispute Settlement process. While these are by no means insignificant issues, there are much greater dangers out there that we would be most unwise to ignore. Looking back, we may yet have cause to feel relieved that the TPPA was wound up in July-August 2015. And even those on the left of New Zealand politics may feel just a little bit thankful that Tim Groser was where he was, when he was.
I would say your smack on the money , Mr Trotter.
Trade deals are a way of cementing certain allegiances ….a historic example was the intermarriage of kingdoms from different nations….done to create a type of reticence to attack ones neighbor….
It can blow up in ones face , however, …world war one as an example .Treaties, alliances , royal houses with their intermarriage , trade deals can all go horribly wrong and be quickly forgotten in a period of belligerence.
But if we look back to when Helen Clarke was PM , one of the things she was gunning for was a free trade deal with the USA …to which George Bush Jr rejected. Based on our previous history of denying access to their nuclear powered warships coming here among other things.
And right there we can see a military motive for denying an economic one.
The two more often than not go hand in hand.
Furthermore in this particular case the american farmers also had a voice in having competition from NZ. And yet we remained a strategic partner in the South Pacific. And very much in the 5 eyes spy network.
But here’s the rub .
NZ has had a fair latitude for movement within that 5 eyes spy network since it was created during the 1940’s. This is demonstrated by the fact we didn’t commit troops during the USA ‘s unilateral decision to invade Iraq…
And so,…whilst still remaining in that 5 eyes network….Clarke elected to not commit to that venture. While Tony Blair did.
And it would appear that the USA has a need here…that of forming a tight trading bloc to form a bulwark against Chinese pressure in this region.
They have a need. They want something more than just ‘trade’ out of this. It has to do with regional hegemony.
Now it strikes me as ‘peculiar’ that we- as partners in the 5 eyes spy network – were found to be spying on the second most powerful nation on earth to which we also have a free trade deal with on behalf of the most powerful nation on earth to which we currently don’t have a free trade deal with.
And while that caused some ripples diplomatically in China – by and large – we still enjoy good diplomatic relations…even after the Fonterra scare over there.
China wants something. And its more than just ‘ trade’ . They want hegemony in this region.
Both these huge nation’s want not only trade but influence in this region. And both these nations have ‘ excused ‘ NZ ‘s little ‘audacity’s’ quietly in exchange for focusing on their bigger interest’s.
So the question is why?
And its at this point the answer becomes clear. It also becomes clear that we have a point of leverage with both of these giants. And that point of leverage – if we were smart about it – can be exploited for our advantage.
They want influence and hegemony in this region ? Then they can sing our tune as much as they want us to sing theirs.
We already have american spy bases here . We already have a free trade agreement with China. It already happened. They both want influence here. And they both want hegemony.
And just because we are not a military might and have a small population doesn’t mean we cannot drive a hard deal that suits us.If this TTPA goes ahead – as it looks like it will – we should not be viewing our position as ‘we do not matter because of our size’… but we should be quietly asserting our part of the deal to advantage us – and at the same time realizing they both know we realize what it really is both of them want.
That is the point of leverage we actually have. And we should be demonstrating that we realize that fact and driving a tough bargain with both.
Here’s another point ,…Remember Don Brash was quite pro – USA ,….and remember also his statement regarding NZ’s anti nuke stance ” gone by lunchtime ”…
And yet now he heads up as CEO the Chinese bank over here in downtown Auckland…
So now he’s conveniently switched sides and going the other way?…seems to me that the TTPA or something like it has been in the pipeline for quite a long time.
I think a few might have had an inkling quite some time ago.And the fact that after the Orewa speech National wanted to ‘soften ‘ its image …so….in walks Key to jolly the population along…
but there must be a way to move our eggsa around without sacrificing our sovereignty chris? are you advocating for tppa now? please no
Note the language – It’s all “could” and “may” and “if” and “Is it possible?”
One can pontificate on a point of view without necessarily endorsing / advocating it.
You are fecking joking!
“It will only be presented to Parliament for a vote once it has been signed, and Mr Groser says the talks can’t take place in public.
“This is a moving game, and we need adults to do this – not breathless children to run off at the mouth when the deal is not actually finished.”
from a man who regards the public as kids not worthy of consideration – presumably because “it’s all for your own good, kiddies”
With an attitude like that, he can take his self entitled arrogant arse and stick it!
“Free access for New Zealand’s agricultural exports to all the markets of the Pacific Rim – especially those of the USA, Canada and Japan
Surely you jest? Do you SERIOUSLY think that is on the cards? I’m calling it now: no way will ANY of those three countries relinquish governmental agricultural control for this agreement over any time frame that matters – i.e. in order to protect their local, often uncompetitive agricultural sector, they won’t give up their right to continue to subsidise their agricultural producers or impose tariffs on NZ produce.
Well Chris, you might like to know that Russia, China and India are busy building the infrastructure (the Silk Roads) in Central Asia that will be the basis for the Asian Empire to dwarf the US and its minion satellites, like good ole New Zealand, and the European Union. I predict that we will the rue the day when John Key and Tim Groser hitch our wagon to the leaky US Titanic.
Hmmmm, if the TPPA was some Cunning Plan emanating from the subterranean depths of Groser’s volcano-lair under Ruapehu (carrying the Bond metaphor too far?), there’s a thought that occurred to me…
Whatever plan or strategy Groser and MFaT may have concocted would’ve been known by the NSA within the hour, and throughout the halls of Washington’s power hierarchy by the end of the week, if not day.
If our American cuzzies had had an inkling that the Old Boys’ from MFaT were trying to “play” them – I’m thinking Washington would’ve retaliated in some time honoured, typically-American, none-to-subtle fashion. (America doesn’t do “Subtle”.)
Sorry, Chris, but I suspect your theory falls down for precisely the same reason that the Moon Landing Hoax collapses; too many people would’ve known to keep it all hush-hush secret.
Then again, I’m just a blogger from a suburb in the Hutt Valley – what the feck would I know?
The TTPA obviously wont be negotiated in a favorable manner for this country…Prof Jane Kelsey pretty much demonstrated that.
But I don’t think it was Groser at all. And like Chris said after 9/11 and the Iraq war they started refocusing their hegemony in the South Pacific…( and bearing in mind George Bush Jr rejected Clarke’s overtures for a free trade deal )…something , or rather two things changed. One was Obama became President , the other …Key became PM here.
And Key has always been known as a USA/Obama lapdog.
Its almost ludicrous…both have homes in Hawaii ,…both have cozy laps together around the gold courses together…talk about living in each others pockets….!
And if the USA withdrew after the re-invasion of Iraq , and resumed its focus on hegemony in this region seeing China’s overtures towards the South Pacific…
Its almost too much of a coincidence to have not been the case.
We’ve all said Key is a USA plant – well – I think that is the bullseye to be honest. And Key appears as the compliant submissive in this game of thrones.
It is because of his submissiveness we can almost guarantee we will get the short end of the stick in this TTPA deal. That’s the problem here.
Just ask any Canadian if the US deals fairly?
I was there when NAFTA we opened up and we are in for a rough ride folks the US is a serious aggressive Monsters folks warts and all. We will be raped and plundered for its left riches and then sell up and go somewhere else.
Canada was much stronger than we were then and now over 70% of Companies in Canada are owned by US congromerates.
As everybody knows, when selling snake oil, a big part of The Game is to convince the rube/s that they is smarter than the saleman so you can get what you want before they figures out they’ve been taken for fools.
Exactly. Very accurate last paragraph.
I’m sorry Chris but this is the most unadulterated tripe you have ever written.
Groser considers himself to be the “great deal maker” and you have fallen to the delusion.
Every FTA NZ has ever signed has lead to the the importation of cheap and (in most cases) shoddy goods, and the further exportation of thousands of NZ jobs to countries where labour laws and wages are substandard to NZ’s. For workers it becomes simply a race to the bottom. Workers are now facing conditions not much better than those of the 19th C as a result. How can you sing “Joe Hill” and write such rubbish?
The points with respect to the greater dangers are valid, indeed I believe that the next 20 years may see those become existential. However why the proposed FTA with the US will make a difference to these is not obvious.
Firstly while I do not share in the” I hate US thinking”, in fact for all their decided blunders I regard them as a great well meaning country, one does need to recall history and pronouncements by noted US figures. Pithy sayings such as “great nations don’t have friends they only have interests”, the business of the US is business also history which demonstrates the US reluctance to get involved in the last two great conflicts until they were directly threatened.
In short the US will only come to NZ’s aid where it directly affects either their business or their security and an FTA with a small country of 4.5 million is unlikely to be the trigger.
Secondly both education (BCOM double economics / accounting, latterly BA and Post Grad in Anthro) and experience (UK, Australia and NZ) has promoted a high level of scepticism of the cost / benefits of globalisation and FTA’s to a small country like NZ.
You speak of “Free access for New Zealand’s agricultural exports to all the markets of the Pacific Rim – especially those of the USA, Canada and Japan – will mean that if push eventually comes to shove, New Zealand’s economic eggs will not be concentrated in the basket labelled “Made in China”.
Two points I will believe that when I see it, e.g. the much trumpeted Korean agreement sees dairy access over 20 yrs and beef over 15 years. Also it is not just free access it also requires a removal or compensation for the support being given to farmers in the other countries.
Maybe Grosser is smarter(?) than we think, what really worries me is not his intelligence and/or Machiavellian strategy, what worries me is the BLIND unthinking commitment to dogma of himself and his masters. They see any advancement in the neoliberal agenda as positive irrespective of the consequences.
Let us see what this agreement brings but one thing is sure the benefits will be over egged and the costs underestimated!
Or Grosser could be the man who sold New Zealand to the US corporates. Before we start congratulating Grosser we should remember that with National, things are never what they seem.
In these debates we tend to forget our western economies are based on oil being priced at $20USD per barrel. Add war since 2001, the price goes up. To make up the short fall the futures market has had to borrow 100 years of future growth, compressed all that debt into today. This quantum is distorting everything in all dimensions. Most importantly this quantum is driving the destruction of our ecology. Our planet earth is drying up because of it. It’s forcing a water war. And it’s happening. God help us all.
I disagree with the assessment by Chris, that many New Zealanders are fearful of the TPPA. Yes, they should be so, but most are not. People should also have been worried about some provisions in the China New Zealand FTA, but what happened? Did anybody protest, or do much debating of it? Once the exports increased and money was earned, they rather listened to their bosses, who would have told their workers, hey, we need more FTAs, as that enables us to earn more (firstly into the bosses’ pockets).
Workers in New Zealand are mostly employed in small to medium size businesses and organisations, so they do not dare to rock the boat and upset their bosses. Hence so few are unionised these days. And when the boss says something, whether they may like to hear it or not, they fear for their job security, and rather go along with what the boss may say, if that may mean, business goes on, maybe gets better, and I still have a job.
As for the TPPA, the same will apply as it did to the other signed FTAs, people do not read or study the agreements themselves, they may listen to the MSM news, and they are hardly reporting much about detail or even in a critical manner. Just look at the superficial discussion even on The Nation or on Q+A, which is only watched by a tiny percentage of the citizenry.
So forget, it, people will simply fall for Mr Smile and Wave, John Key, and the bean counter English, and big mouthed Joyce, and think, maybe they are right, so we go along with it.
For the very reason that the Nats have managed to get 3 terms, I believe, sadly, that this shows, people are very short sighted, and only mainly concerned about their immediate day to day well-being. Long term thinking is the pre-occupation of a tiny minority of New Zealanders, and so many are forgetful, and very forgiving, that makes it easy for Key and his lot to get away with so much.
When we have a mayor and Council in Auckland sell public places to earn money for the budget, and leaves most to be run by private business operations, and nobody really stands up against this, we can presume, that the indifference is so ingrained now, it will inevitably require the people to head into a serious disaster to wake up.
Even with the housing crisis in Auckland, what do people actually do, but clap at an auction when a perceived overseas buyer misses out? People are not united, are all just lone battlers and competitors, so they go along with the flow, do not care much for the less fortunate and simply adjust. No protests, no action challenging the system.
Groser is another smart arsed Minister, more talk than substance, and he loves the high life, and expensive turf, he rubs noses with his buddies from overseas, jets around billing hundreds of thousands to the government, and no matter what happens, he will simply talk himself out of whatever mistakes or miscalculations will have been made. Indeed, before the likely disadvantages and damage may occur, he will, like his boss, be long gone, and retired somewhere in the sun, outside of this country.
As economist Jeff Rubin demonstrated in his book about peak oil, trade in physical objects is already the freest it’s every going to be. Unless renewably-powered container ship technology suddenly appears out of the woodwork within the next 10 to 20 years, energy constraints will limit international trade in objects to just above zero. What will replace it is an internet-based global economy, which can only remain capitalist if it can make property and commodities out of information, which unlike physical commodities, is infinitely replicable at almost zero marginal cost.
That’s the real cost of the TPPA; the lock-in of ever more draconian copyright, patent, and search and seizure laws, and suspension of due process left, right and centre where digital communications technology is involved. Just when we will need freedom of information most, as we are trying to transition out of the fossil-fuel economy and into whatever will replace it, the agents of the state-corporate system are trying to enclose information, and commodify it, with corporatist constitutions like the TPPA (along with TISA and RCEP).
If one day there’s no longer the cheap shipping that allows us to export mined soil fertility in the form of dessicated cow secretions around the world, how will we pay for the computers and digital TVs we could have been producing ourselves (but global patents make us pay royalties higher than the cost of buying them from the patent owner), or pay the various tolls corporates want to charge us for surfing the net?
What have you been smoking Mr Trotter?
Chris, I am so disappointed in your writing here about TPPA. There is nothing good about it and Tim Groser is smart like a brain dead fox and dumb to the bone along with the other corporate suck ups.
I have disagreed with you on points in the past but this article you wrote is not a good contribution to quality journalism. Get informed better about why this non-trade agreement is so very wrong for so many countries workers and so much more. This is not just ! about Pharmac and we have nothing to be relieved about if ( when ! ! ) this horrific agreement passes. Tim Groser and Donky Jonkey are serving the corporate masters and to hell with us and our workers and our environment and the other countries involved and their sovereignty and happiness.
Since we have just been told by the americans that our financial benefits from this deal would amount to 0.01%, sometime in the future, I fail to understand your argument.
You know sometimes you just ‘ get a feeling’ something is not quite right. This is one of those times. The TPPA is a con, plain and simple.
If the current events in Greece are anything to go by small nations have almost no power to influence the behaviour of the bigger nations.
The problem for NZ is that we’re on now in a position where we have to show subservience to two rival powers. And lets not beat around the bush, a large part of our status as a wealthy western nation is that we have been wedded to the fortunes of the UK and the US for the last 200 years.
The Nats may be incompetent at most aspects of governing New Zealand but they do understand how power works (in fact it may be their only genuine area of expertise). Now it’s possible that John Key is only interested in himself but it’s also possible that Tim Groser has the best interests of NZ at heart.
Maybe this really is the best that we can expect at the moment – without really knowing what goes on behind the scenes when world leaders meet it’s very hard to make a judgement call.
The only thing is that at some point there will come a shift in world thinking about neo liberalism and we will be able to shake a lot of this stuff off – but not if the same people are in the beehive.
Its time for treason trials for traitors. also Starve the beast boycott all international business and chain stores, even NZ business that will benefit from this Treasonous FTA such as fontera products like Anchor milk etc…
Yep, I have some rope under my place, long enough to pull a noose into it.
The origins of the TPPA, in smaller Asian region trade blocks served New Zealand’s interests better. The smaller Asian nations cannot exploit massive corporate power against us to the same extent as the US, and for the most part didn’t want to. We should avoid the temporary hegemonic excesses of self-styled superpowers and seek trade on equal terms – especially with economies that produce a fundamentally different product breakdown. Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia and Indonesia are for the most part not threatened by our trade, and we in turn are not threatened by theirs.
The US and China however are major dairy competitors, and have hegemonic interests that do not advance ours at all. We should not intemperately embrace either.
A taste of things that may be about to come:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pue6oSxeZqw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bArldeCM9E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0jlUNnmKJ8
But as long as sleepy hobbits are easy to corrupt dream of this.
More anarchist freedom fighting:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mZSw8ztjyw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsQDsxDOFB4
Just for some to get a grasp of what goes on overseas.
Hey Chris,
Acid (LSD) does that, and makes everything beautiful eh?
Remember the era of 1970 when Cream came out?
Garda da vida baby, or In the white room.
We will be enslaved by those Corporations who have no human soul only a bottom line and will do anything to get there.
This Government will be not able to govern any more, and Bill English was at a function a few weeks ago a mate called today and said he was asked about this and English said at the meeting in response, (My words) Oh governments are past relics that have outlived there usefulness so there you are mate, we are going to become slaves to conglomerates taking us all back to the 1700s Chris without any democracy.
No offence intended — but your article is better suited for publishing in The Onion.
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