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New Poll adds to Len Brown’s problems

By   /  April 4, 2015  /  9 Comments

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A recent poll has added to Auckland mayor, Len Brown’s problems. Horizon Research recently revealed that the incumbent, Len Brown, has a serious challenger in the form of current Labour MP, Phil Goff;

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goff - auckland council - brown

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A recent poll has added to Auckland mayor, Len Brown’s problems. Horizon Research recently  revealed that the incumbent, Len Brown, has a serious challenger in the form of current Labour MP, Phil Goff;

Former Labour leader and cabinet minister Phil Goff is a clear front runner in results of a poll on who would receive most current and potential support if they were to run for the Auckland Mayoralty in 2016.

A Horizon Research poll of Auckland Council area residents conducted between 19 and 26 March 2015 finds Mr Goff, the MP for Mt Roskill, has 20% support of all respondents if he were to become a Mayoral candidate.

Former Mayor John Banks has 8% support.

Current Mayor Len Brown has 5%.

Runners-up in the poll were CEO for Auckland Chamber of Commerce, Michael Barnett, at 5%; National MP for Pakuranga, Maurice Williamson at 6%;  current right-wing councillor Cameron Brewer at 5%; and Deputy Mayor Penny Hulse, at 4%.

The poll follows an unscientific NZ Herald on-line survey  reported on 18 March, where 5,000 respondents cast their preferences. Again, Phil Goff was the  preferred candidate;

Phil Goff – 26%

John Banks – 22%

Michael Barnett – 15%

Maurice Williamson – 14%

Penny Hulse – 13%

Len  Brown – 5%

John Palino – 5%

One year ago, on 20 March 2014, the Herald published a more scientific survey which also gave bad news for any future Len Brown mayoral-candidacy.

The results were again less than encouraging for Brown;

Only 22.7 per cent of the people questioned in this month’s poll said they would vote for Mr Brown in the 2016 elections; 57.7 per cent said they would not. The other 20 per cent said they did not know or did not vote in local body elections.

Interestingly, the beneficiary of any anti-Brown voter-sentiment would appear to be another “left-leaning” candidate (Goff), and not his previous electoral rival, John Banks.

Despite his initial conviction, for filing a false electoral return for his failed 2010 mayoral  campaign, being quashed by the Court of Appeal in 2014, public perception of Banks’ lack of judgement may weigh against him for any political come-back. The ex-National MP; ex-ACT MP; and ex-Mayor is seen as too “accident”-prone to be considered a viable alternative to Len Brown.

Banks’ re-trial – set for 6 July this year – is by no means a guarantee that he will be found Not Guilty this time around.

Other right contenders are Maurice Williamson and John Palino – the latter implicated in  dirty dealings with a well-known right-wing blogger who ‘outed’ Brown’s affair with Auckland woman, Bevan Chuang;

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luigi_wewege_bevan_chuang_and_john_palino_ODT

L-R: Luigi Wewege, Bevan Chuang, and John Palino

 

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Luige Wewege was closely connected with Palino’s mayoral campaign team. He was, in turn, ‘outed’ by Kiwiblogger, David Farrar, as a liar when Wewege denied in public that he himself had had a close relationship with Ms Chuang.

Wewege and Palino have burnt their political bridges in this country.

Auckland city councillor, Cameron Brewer, has also expressed a willingness to stand on a right-wing ticket. But aside from looking like a minor character who inhabits the comic-book store in the US sitcom, ‘Big Bang Theory‘, it is hard to see what he has going for him. As with Banks, Brown, and Williamson, contenders for a mayoralty require a strong, out-going personality. ‘Nuff said.

Which leaves Maurice Williamson as the most likely  right-wing adversary for a Goff tilt at the Auckland mayoralty.

Despite receiving only 14% support in the unscientific 18 March poll, support for Williamson cannot be under-estimated. His famous “Big Gay Rainbow” speech in Parliament on 17 April 2013  alone must have cemented Williamson as an inspirational beacon of hope for the LGBT community in Auckland.

With a decent campaign team and predictably plentiful donations of cash  from the business sector, Williamson could yet prove a strong adversary for Phil Goff.

One thing is for certain, as the Horizon Poll pointed out, Len Brown’s political career appears to be over;

“Indications are that 65% of ratepayers would not consider voting for Mr Brown if he were to be a candidate.”

It would be interesting to know who commissioned the poll-questioning regarding Auckland’s mayoralty.

The real question for the Left is, would a Phil Goff mayoralty be any better?

If Goff issued any statement on the dispute, I have yet to find it.

It is that silence which I find troubling. And it is not often that I am troubled by a politician’s silence.

 

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References

Horizon Poll:  Brown down, Goff front runner in Mayoralty poll

NZ Herald: Auckland Mayor Len Brown loses backing of top campaign team

NZ Herald: Thumbs down for Len Brown – poll

Fairfax media:  John Banks retrial set for July 6

Fairfax media: The mayor, the love rat and nudity

Kiwiblog: Not in a relationship!

TV3 News: Wewege denies relationship with Chuang

NZ Herald: Cameron Brewer hints at bid as Phil Goff eyes mayoralty

TVNZ News: Williamson’s ‘big, gay rainbow’ speech makes world headlines

Fairfax media: Phil Goff – rebel with applause

NZ Herald: Wharfies supported after ‘disturbing’ lock-out notice

NZ Herald: Port admits leaking worker’s details – union

Other related blogposts

Workers lose their jobs – Day of Shame!

A media release I would love to see from Len Brown

Lies, Boards, and Aucklandports

Lies, Boards, and Aucklandports (#Rua)

10 March – Today was a True Labour Day!

Ratbags, Rightwingers, and other assorted Rogues!

I have seen one future, and it is bleak

National MP admits collusion with bosses to set up strike-breaking law!!

Other blogs

Evening Report: Why Len Brown Should Stand Down and Why Phil Goff Should Stand for the Auckland Mayoralty

Kiwiblog: Mayor Goff?

The Daily Blog: 5 reasons why Goff will run for Auckland Mayor

The Standard: Len Brown’s future

The Standard: Len Brown is toast

Your NZ: Brown eased out, Goff lining up

 

 


 

len brown - john banks - i'm glad i'm not that guy

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9 Comments

  1. cleangreen says:

    Thanks Frank,

    Although Auckland is of no interest to us in the “Forgotten Provence’s”

    That are suffering from Deflation while Auckland ChCh and Queenstown ect’ get the lions share of our collective the tax purse for their grandiose infrastructure wishes, it is important we see why a former fighter for justice and support for the less fortunate as Len Brown was once known for, has now just become yet another disgraced soiled corporate bought politician that frankly makes us all as sick as we are of the majority of other mayoralty candidates that have thrown their hats in the ring also.

    Maurice Williamson. He bought us the most repressive new law governing over us now with an iron fist when he brow beat us over the leaky homes saga to bring in the new autocratic 2012 “Building Act” .

    Remember when the stupid act he first floated was a knee jerk reaction to the blown up “Leaky homes” saga his cronies covered up the true reasons for the “Leaky Homes” was apparently now confirmed as simply faulty cladding products marketed by Fletcher’s and Hardies, Maurice Williamson the prat was going around badmouthing “Do it yourself” Kiwi’s doing their own “Kiwi can do” home maintenance that was a cherished pass time chore for countless generation since the first Whare and pioneer 12 by 12 foot hut was built I the early 1800’s.

    Then Maurice Williamson was himself caught doing now “Illegal” repairs to a unsavoury Chinese Billionaire house he sold his own property next door too without even his own procedural “Building Act” compliance paperwork/inspections/council permits he himself authored to force upon us all!!!!!

    As for John Banks, the name brings forth more aggressive dictatorial regimen that Planet Key is already thrusting upon us, so he would merely turn Auckland into another Nasty natZ fortress akin to the same rigors of the current parliamentary structure is.

    Not much to choose from apart from Phil Goff, who has been spied upon and soiled by Key’s Black ops, EDE/GCSB scandal still swirling around like an unblocked dirty sink.

    • Fair points made, Cleangreen.

      As Korakys states below (1.42pm), the best that could be said for Goff is that he is a “centrist”.

      However, the thing about “centrists” is that we never really know which way they will lean in a given situation.

  2. Korakys says:

    As you say I don’t like it’s possible to count Goff as a leftist candidate, more likely he is centrist.

    But does Phil Goff actually want to be mayor, probably not…

    • Leftie says:

      Good Point. Phil Goff has not even said he wants to go for the mayoralty, which is too far off to warrant such time wasting speculation from members of the press anyway.

  3. Nehemiawall says:

    From an Auckland perspective, Browm is toast, and a good job that is…he had been an absolute disaster. Williamson is no better. If Goff stands, he will be a shoo in, and more evidence of just how centrist NZ is.

  4. Stuart Munro says:

    Goff might be a good departure for Labour – his stance on Investor State Dispute Settlement is unhelpful. The Hadramaut may be looking for experienced political representatives soon, if Auckland cannot stomach him.

  5. phillip ure says:

    if ‘goff’ is the answer..

    ..clearly the wrong question is being asked…

    ..and goff is a rightwing neo-lib trout – thru and thru…

    ..the poor can just rot has been his mantra – oh..!..ever since those heady roger-the-failed-pig-farmer days…

    ..how much more evidence is needed..?

    ..and he was a full-supporter of ‘give s.f.a. to the poorest!’ that was the pillar of the 2014 labour election policy/campaign..

    ..he is a heartless-bastard..

    ..with that neo-lib blood running thru his veins..

  6. Save NZ says:

    I see Goff as right of centre. This dilemma totally sums up with what is wrong in NZ. There is very little centre left people or parties to vote for.

    That is where the gap is (centre left). It used to be filled by Labour but now they are centre right.

    Even the more conservative NZ First has more left of centre and Green ideas than Labour. That why Labour are getting in a panic about NZ First.

    Wasn’t Phil Goff the guy that bought in student fees in 1989, i.e. got rid of free tertiary education? Anyway for that reason and the Rogernomics I see him as far right of centre. The best thing I can say about him is he seems like the most genuine of the poor choices.

    If the idea of Labour USED to be equality, with free education, health and social welfare to those that need it. I don’t think Savage would approve of Labour now.

    Well centre left voters, again that is the dilemma. Auckland wants a left Mayor. But we have Len Brown selling our city and our harbour, getting in with Sky Shitty and voting to cut down 200 – 500 Kauris. Lens much promised transport not really making headway, and his council especially IT out of control spending from the SuperCity, which could be better spent on public transport. Len can’t organise the councillors to stop the rot from the CEO down on IT and in their resource consent department, nor does he even see it is a problem.

    Pen Hulse, votes for the ports expansion and cutting down the Kauri tree. In her 20 years or so as a councillor does not seem to have made any significant achievements.

    John Banks, far of right former ACT leader, can’t remember donations and wants charter schools.

    Phil Goff – getting the votes now because he seems the least toxic but given a choice Auckland’s clearly want a left of centre candidate.

    Please give us a left of centre candidate to vote for in Auckland for Mayor!!! So far nobody!!!

    Has anyone got any ideas?

    My preferred choice is David Cunliffe but not sure he want’s to stand.

    If it became against Cunliffe and Goff I think Cunliffe would win because he is more ‘Auckland’ and can get things done, like unbundling Telecom and his knowledge is in areas that Auckland needs.

    Cunliffe has NOT sold out. That is why the claws and smears come out against him by his own party. Maybe business are afraid of someone who can get things done and try to end the corruption and rip off’s that are going on to the people of this country. BTY most business want to end corruption so that they have a chance of actually getting their business fairly without having to network and play golf with certain people to get the upper hand on all these tenders going on around Auckland.

  7. […] blogpost was first published on The Daily Blog on 4 April […]

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