Seeing as we were one of the first to point out Winston standing, our pick as to what plays out next is a nightmare for the Greens and National.
If NZ First brings on board Shane Jones and John Tamihere for 2017 under the banner of being the voice of the provinces, then the shock result we saw in Northland could spread.
What is lacking in the analysis of our corporate news pundits is an explanation as to why National were beaten so badly. Yes National ran one of the worst campaigns ever, but this kind of se change is deeper than that.
From our excellent analysis…
Most of the time we have the media telling everyone we have a Rock Star economy with big private yachts parked in the harbour, John Key’s son DJing at exclusive clubs and Auckland property valuation news headlines that border on the pornographic.
The reality of poverty in NZ is utterly ignored. It’s somewhere far, far, far away from the CEO’s of Mediaworks, Sky TV, ZB, NZ Herald and TVNZ’s plush homes in expensive burbs.
Their bubble world makes gated communities look enlightened and broad minded.
Reality popped that bubble perception with the result of this by election. The poverty is so intense in Northland, that they voted against John Key. It’s an earthquake that fractures the illusion of success that Key brandishes. The reality is that poverty in NZ has generated a political change of tide even amongst one of the most southern electorates in the North Island. These people elected a thick necked cop as their political representative by a majority of 9000. They like their politics hard right, banjos twanging and books burnt crisp in Northland.
If Key’s aspiration of wealth has been seen as an illusion from those who get the least from it, then people’s desperation forces them to act and that action creates a political reverberation that could shape the 2017 election.
…this is about shattered dreams. This is about grinding poverty. This is about the spell of aspiration National weave being broken.
Remove the lightening rod of Kim Dotcom, and the public get to see National dirty politics for what it is – self-interested sophistry that doesn’t benefit their lives at all.
If NZ First take up this voice of the provinces mantel with a couple of blue collar redneck blokes like Tamihere and Jones, then it spells real danger for National and that danger has already seen Bridges, Bennett and Collins manoeuvring for a leadership challenge the moment Key trips up in a big way next.
It also impacts the Greens. Seeing as Labour seemed to have no actual plan for the by-election (despite knowing last year that Sabin had ‘personal issues’ that would see him stand down) they fluffed this and didn’t return the favour Winston had given them by killing off MANA in Te Tai Tokerau. This means NZ First’s price for coalition in 2017 just tripled. That price will be a minority Government that simply forces the Greens to support it or else.
In terms of progressive politics, a Labour-NZ First minority Government would be a groan rather than anything to cheer. However a slightly less worse version of National in 2017 looks about as good as it gets.
How terribly disappointing for those on the bottom of the heap.